classic car market projections

[F8-4life]

I am curious to hear your guys opinion on the current, and future outlook for our beloved classics. There were a couple of interesting threads on this over on moparts.  I have some theorys but I want to hear what you think. It could be interesting to hear all the perspectives. Selling a project car is a nightmare that will only get worse I believe. NO $$ means lower prices then we''ve ever seen in recent history, but also could mean potentail projects are more likely to be parted because who has the  $$ for a restoration these days?? So many cars at this point are already restored the pickings are good and as we all know buying a done car is cheaper.

   Good cars are never going to be worthless (of course) but whos to say what it will be like 25 years from now? If nobody then remembers growing up with these beasts there will be significantly less nostalgia involved and therfore less demend for the cars, add on to that some of the older crowd passing and that equals even less demand....
I figure by 2035 or so we will really be in a buyers market...

[F8-4life]

But in a nutshell I do beleive the peak has been hit, and what goes up must come down as they say...

[Mike DC]

  
I agree the peak has probably been hit.  And that money-pit projects will probably continue to fall in price compared to decent assembled cars.  


The lack of decent repro parts had the prices of unrestored Mopar cars/parts much too high in the last decade.  Parts that were 2/3rds trashed were still costing 2/3rds the price of a nice one.  I don't see that continuing.  

[chargerman69]

Sadly, some of the best show cars today will be barn finds and wreacks again its just how it goes, one thing that goes throw my head everyday some were and some classic/muscle car meats its end

[1974dodgecharger]

But in a nutshell I do beleive the peak has been hit, and what goes up must come down as they say...

I think it will go up as more cars accomplish greater mpg in the future.  These cars were built during an era of immagination letting us run wild, big engines, no limits, rare build time frames etc..

for example they changed the 68 to 70 chargers yearly with front grills, rear lights, etc.. now the chargers stay the same for 3 years and then they change and they keep doing this until they get their money back from the investment they did.  Back then they got their money faster vs now which in turns make the cars back then rare vs now you see the charger/challenger in their 3 generation essentially almost looking the same.  Back then total body redesign came 2 to 4 years.

[Cooter]

The "Babyboomers" that wanted these cars are NOT the same people who grew up with them on their "FORZA5" Games.

[projectanimal]

It is sad that the restoration of these cars is slowly dying... 
Thankfully my wife (who is not 30 yet) grew up with her grandfather who always has 2-3 projects going on with a mint model A in the garage.   That seems to be the worse hit, the 20s and 30s..... 
It seems like our car values should increase with restored cars as they are getting harder to find.   
I give praise to some of the movie franchises for using older muscle cars, but like the fast 5, that charger is all stripped and heavy modified, but at least it's on the road...
To us die hard car guys we can only hope to pass on the passion to younger generations... 

On a Side note, got a shirt for Christmas... "Muscle car man in a hybrid world".   

[Dino]

We still go out to buy and restore model A's and '49 Buicks.  We'll be doing that to Chargers for a while to come as well.  It's not dead yet.

[Cooter]

As long as there's AMD, I see ALOT of Coronets being converted to 2nd Gen. Chargers.

[bull]

Hagerty insurance put out a report recently that showed a values performance cross section of several classics over the years and compared it to other more mainstream investments. The classic cars did better and the growth was more stable than the others. How does that relate to the future? Maybe it doesn't but past performance is the only real way to predict the future.

[HPP]

Back then they got their money faster vs now which in turns make the cars back then rare vs now you see the charger/challenger in their 3 generation essentially almost looking the same.  Back then total body redesign came 2 to 4 years.

Not really. Chrysler was burning the wick at both ends and the net result of  the "creativity" the muscle car era was a Chrysler that became insolvent and was in bankruptcy at the end of the 70s.

We still go out to buy and restore model A's and '49 Buicks.  We'll be doing that to Chargers for a while to come as well.  It's not dead yet.

True, and in light of that, I think we will continue to see premiums for iconic cars of the era continue to rise. Camaros, Mustangs, Chargers and Cudas will probably all fall into this catagory.  Fairlanes, Coronets, Impalas, Furys, not so much. Cars with pedigrees will always command the big dollars. Since this was an era where more pedestrian cars were made that looked like the premium cars, there will be somesort of demand for these from at least the next generation that has watched them be rebuilt and worked on. However, only very few of them will be able to afford it, even more so than now.

[paironines]

Yes some prices have fallen (which is good) but demand still out weighs supply and it will be so for a long time.  Lots of younger guys still into these cars.

[Paul G]

Every thing will cycle up and then down. We have been in a down cycle, and will be for a while yet. When the up cycle is in full swing our "toy" cars will be in demand, again, and prices will rise with demand. Seen it, been there, watching it happen again. I remember back in the 70's the economy and the people were in survival mode. Doing what we could for food and shelter. It was tough. 10 years later we were flying high, had money to spend, life was good.

The age of the population who gets in to there "money to burn" years will be the telling factor for what is hot, if they have money to spend. I would not be surprised if in 5 or so years from now we see cars from the 80's being the hot ticket. People hitting mid life will want what they had in there youth.

[Lord Warlock]

I'd expect values to continue to go up, but not nearly at the pace that they did in the past.  Mainly because they are still getting rarer to find actual examples of the limited production models,  I think the values have already hit a peak, rode the crest and are now in a valley, but that is just the cyclical nature of the collector market, when the economy is strong, prices go up, when its in the pitts, (like today) they go down.  We'll just need to hold on to them till the next crest.  

The main problem is that we are now past the point of the boomers who liked these in their heyday and missed out can now afford them,  the younger generation don't feel as strongly toward the musclecar generation as we boomers did.  The future will be for turbo cars, supras/ imports etc as the video game culture matures and moves into the high salary band.  There will still be us old farts moving into retirement who have finally finished sending out kids through college/marriages etc so we have a few years left for the musclecar craze to go.  I just hope the values go up a bit more than they are today, I'd like my wife and kids to be able to buy more than a new dodge dart with the proceeds from the old charger r/t.  

Keep in mind, there are the new retro cars to take into consideration, and 25 years from now, they will be collectible as well, and may be worth even more since they are alot safer, easier to drive, and get triple the mileage per gallon that the old ones do.

[F8-4life]

the age of the population who gets in to there "money to burn" years will be the telling factor for what is hot, if they have money to spend. I would not be surprised if in 5 or so years from now we see cars from the 80's being the hot ticket. People hitting mid life will want what they had in there youth.


^^^
This I beleive is a big factor X, It depends on the peoples ($$ holders) interests. and being 23 I am younger and have first hand experiance with the passions(or lack of?) with my generation. Sure there are young car guys they are a breed that will be around for awile.. but on a large scale, as a whole the young people have very differant paths of interest. And alot of the younger car guys are living with and having fun with the current cheap rides (certainly not $$ muscle/classics) So this is what they will know frm their youths.   Just picture how big "car culture" was in the last 50 years, it was a function of the time and people...both of which are very differant today. I do think If I can live long enough, I wil see some very cool cars being significantly less desirable/useful to the people of the day.

[PlainfieldCharger]

Hagerty insurance put out a report recently that showed a values performance cross section of several classics over the years and compared it to other more mainstream investments. The classic cars did better and the growth was more stable than the others. How does that relate to the future? Maybe it doesn't but past performance is the only real way to predict the future.

I read a similar article, used it in negotiations... it worked

[stripedelete]

You can't ignore that the baby boomers were the recipients of the greatest transfer of wealth this country has ever experienced.
A windfall that will not make it to the next generation  They know how to spend. 

[HPP]

I do think If I can live long enough, I wil see some very cool cars being significantly less desirable/useful to the people of the day.

I disagree. The original dry lakes and post WW2 hot rod generation have been dying off and becoming infirmed, yet demand for those same era rods is still strong and prices and values of those rods are still high, even though they preceeded the Boomers automotive antics. Have you priced a built street rod lately? They are still stupid high. The choice muscle cars will follow suit. They have followed suite so closely that you can now buy and build brand new Camaros, Mustangs, and Challengers that do not have an original OEM part in them. I'd say that says a great deal about some companies belief in the future of muscle era vehicles.

You can't ignore that the baby boomers were the recipients of the greatest transfer of wealth this country has ever experienced.
A windfall that will not make it to the next generation  They know how to spend. 

True. In many ways, I think the the creation of the middle class was a historical anomalie because of all the supressed buying demand and accumualted wages generated by WW2. We are slowly slipping back into a society of haves and have nots.

[stripedelete]

I do think If I can live long enough, I wil see some very cool cars being significantly less desirable/useful to the people of the day.

I disagree. The original dry lakes and post WW2 hot rod generation have been dying off and becoming infirmed, yet demand for those same era rods is still strong and prices and values of those rods are still high, even though they preceeded the Boomers automotive antics. Have you priced a built street rod lately? They are still stupid high. The choice muscle cars will follow suit. They have followed suite so closely that you can now buy and build brand new Camaros, Mustangs, and Challengers that do not have an original OEM part in them. I'd say that says a great deal about some companies belief in the future of muscle era vehicles.

You can't ignore that the baby boomers were the recipients of the greatest transfer of wealth this country has ever experienced.
A windfall that will not make it to the next generation  They know how to spend. 

True. In many ways, I think the the creation of the middle class was a historical anomalie because of all the supressed buying demand and accumualted wages generated by WW2. We are slowly slipping back into a society of haves and have nots.

I have been pondering the same for the last couple years.  It's good for making a pit in your stomach.  Unfortunatly, further discussion will take this thread into the weeds. 

[Mike DC]

 
There is only so cheap a whole car can get as long as the individual parts are valuable.  People would just start buying nice condition cars and parting them out for profit. 

[JB400]

I don't see the market going downhill.  As long as Sema stays on course and keep the gov in check, I see things getting better.  For instance, the 32 Ford.  They were popular cars in the 30's and 40's.  Then, they sort of died off some in the 50's and 60's.  Interests in them didn't start coming back until the late 70's early 80's.  Reproduction parts started coming out shortly after, and now they're one of the most popular cars to build.  Our muscle cars are the same way.  15 years ago, a person couldn't buy the parts that they needed like they can now.  Late 60's early 70's was the peak of the muscle car wars.  I don't think we've seen the peak of musclecar resurection.  If anything, it's just begun.

[resq302]

I honestly think that with the technology of todays cars and the way that stuff doesn't last, I am willing to bet that once the economy gets a little better, you will see people starting to purchase these cars again.  I, for one, not only feel safer in my charger (real steel) than I do in the daily drivers of todays vehicles.  Reason being, no computerized stuff to crap out or malfunction.  Cars back then were built a lot more solid and had more ability to be rebuilt with individual items such as starters, alternators, radiators, etc.  Today's cars are plug and play.  Idle air control solenoid die out, toss it and put a new on in.  Although, its not like parts will readily be available for the antiques like they had been.  Don't forget, a lot of things today (like my dads 09 F150) you can not change out the trans fluild yourself like you used to be able to, hence bringing it to dealerships or not doing the required maintenance.

I agree though, that stuff seems to go in cycles.  I have noticed a ton of Ford Model T's for sale.  A lot of people my generation (mid 30s) would have no clue as to what the spark advance lever and such would do or to even how one would manually crank over the car or how 6 volt systems work.

[1974dodgecharger]

As long as they keep making Fast and Furious movies each movie increase the charger value 5 to 10% I noticed.

Thats just a observation.....

[HPP]

For instance, the 32 Ford.  They were popular cars in the 30's and 40's.  Then, they sort of died off some in the 50's and 60's.  Interests in them didn't start coming back until the late 70's early 80's.  Reproduction parts started coming out shortly after, and now they're one of the most popular cars to build.  Our muscle cars are the same way.  15 years ago, a person couldn't buy the parts that they needed like they can now.  Late 60's early 70's was the peak of the muscle car wars.  I don't think we've seen the peak of musclecar resurection.  If anything, it's just begun.

That is my line of thought as well. Look at the attendees at any "rat rod" event and none of those guys were alive at the first go round of jalopies. Muscle cars will do the saem thing as the rod market, IMO. Sure, there will always be those rare machines that are restored and polished with a cotton diaper, but there will still be a demand for them on some level, even if it is as a clapped out rat machine of the future.

[lloyd3]

If you're optimistic about this country's future, than you will likely think that these cars will always have a following and always be worth something, maybe not the peak that we experienced a few short years ago, but something substantial.  If you're a pessimist, then nothing looks good right now, not even the future for these types of cars.