Get ready, Chevy Volt due this November. Update!!!

[Ponch ®]

 

[jeryst]

If one thing kills the electric car, it will be something that no one has mentioned so far: Resale value.

We're running 40 year old cars, sometimes with little to no added expense. If you buy a car today for $40k, it will be worth about $20k in 3 years, but with proper maintenance, you can drive that vehicle for 20 years or more. My sister just traded in her 1988 Ford LTD, which she bought new. Still ran great, but was starting to need some serious body work, so she just decided it was time for something new. Last year I bought a 69 Charger. All original. Runs like a top. Only thing I did was have the tranny rebuilt because it was slipping ($600). Doesnt need anything else.

Now think about an electric. You buy it today for $40k. Five years from now, the batteries will probably need replaced at a cost of anywhere from $8k to $15k. The batteries will need replaced whether you drive it, or just leave it sit in your garage, because that's the nature of batteries. Maybe an optimum shelf life of 10 years, but certainly not 20 or 40. That does not include the depreciation of the vehicle itself due to wear and tear, weather, accidents, mileage, all the other variables that currently make vehicles depreciate at such a steep rate.

So who is going to be willing to pay $15k to replace the batteries in a 5 year old car? No one. That means electric cars will have very little to no resale value as used cars. Would you buy a $40k electric, knowing that (a). You are going to lose your whole $40k because the car has no resale/trade-in value or (b). You will have to reinvest $15k in the car every 5 years if you decide to keep it long term, like more and more people are doing nowadays with gas powered vehicles? If you were in the market for a used car, would you be willing to buy an electric that is 3 years old for $20k, knowing that in two years you will have to put another $15k into it? And you wont be able to go to a junk yard and pull a set of batteries like you do a motor, because after a period of time, all of the batteries will be junk, regardless of how much they were used. And there will not be many backyard mechanics out there rebuilding batteries like there are today rebuilding engines.

They wont be able to give them away.

To me, it is clear that the only real solution to the whole problem, is a new type of fuel, not a new type of motor.

[Ponch ®]

If one thing kills the electric car, it will be something that no one has mentioned so far: Resale value.

We're running 40 year old cars, sometimes with little to no added expense. If you buy a car today for $40k, it will be worth about $20k in 3 years, but with proper maintenance, you can drive that vehicle for 20 years or more. My sister just traded in her 1988 Ford LTD, which she bought new. Still ran great, but was starting to need some serious body work, so she just decided it was time for something new. Last year I bought a 69 Charger. All original. Runs like a top. Only thing I did was have the tranny rebuilt because it was slipping ($600). Doesnt need anything else.

Now think about an electric. You buy it today for $40k. Five years from now, the batteries will probably need replaced at a cost of anywhere from $8k to $15k. The batteries will need replaced whether you drive it, or just leave it sit in your garage, because that's the nature of batteries. Maybe an optimum shelf life of 10 years, but certainly not 20 or 40. That does not include the depreciation of the vehicle itself due to wear and tear, weather, accidents, mileage, all the other variables that currently make vehicles depreciate at such a steep rate.

So who is going to be willing to pay $15k to replace the batteries in a 5 year old car? No one. That means electric cars will have very little to no resale value as used cars. Would you buy a $40k electric, knowing that (a). You are going to lose your whole $40k because the car has no resale/trade-in value or (b). You will have to reinvest $15k in the car in 5 years if you decide to keep it long term, like more and more people are doing nowadays with gas powered vehicles? If you were in the market for a used car, would you be willing to buy an electric that is 3 years old for $20k, knowing that in two years you will have to put another $15k into it? And you wont be able to go to a junk yard and pull a set of batteries like you do a motor, because after a period of time, all of the batteries will be junk, regardless of how much they were used.

They wont be able to give them away.

well, it's kind of a chicken-and-the-egg situation, because if enough of those cars sell and the manufacturers see that there is a big market for them, they'll invest more money into developing more efficient and cheaper battery technology. If that happens, by the time the car needs the battery replaced in 10 years, they will be a lot more readily available and hopefully cheap enough to make it worth while.

It's just like any innovation of the past - fuel injection, ABS...at first its expensive and not all that reliable, but it eventually becomes the norm.

[jeryst]

well, it's kind of a chicken-and-the-egg situation, because if enough of those cars sell and the manufacturers see that there is a big market for them, they'll invest more money into developing more efficient and cheaper battery technology. If that happens, by the time the car needs the battery replaced in 10 years, they will be a lot more readily available and hopefully cheap enough to make it worth while.

It's just like any innovation of the past - fuel injection, ABS, etc...

Lead acid batteries have been around for a long, long time. Last time I bought a battery, it was $80, and it was a cheap one. By your reasoning, car batteries should now cost fifty cents. It's just not gonna happen. There will still be material costs, production costs, labor cost, environmental costs, and all the other things that have not allowed batteries to come down in price over the last 50 years.

[Ghoste]

Well I don't know about the UAW in the States but in Canadakistan the CnothingW, sorry I mean the CAW, has it all figured out.  They are trying to force the big bad evil auto companies that employ them to buy the used cars back at the end of their nice socialisitic lifespans.  That way there will be no used ones to worry about.
Of course the CnothingW demand a lot of bizarre things.

[jeryst]

Well I don't know about the UAW in the States but in Canadakistan the CnothingW, sorry I mean the CAW, has it all figured out.  They are trying to force the big bad evil auto companies that employ them to buy the used cars back at the end of their nice socialisitic lifespans.  That way there will be no used ones to worry about.
Of course the CnothingW demand a lot of bizarre things.

Typical union greed and lunacy.

[1969chargerrtse]

You guys can nit pick all the little details you want. Thing is, an American car company is about to put something out there very different. It's the start of a new change of the automobile. When gas goes back up to 5.00 a gallon, running around in the volt for about .70 cents a gallon for the first 40 miles will put a smile on your face. This is only the beginning, The other car companies are designing similar vehicles also. Let the creativity start. Jeez how you guys gonna handle when Hydrogen becomes main stream?,
And please people, don't bring up " lead batteries" any more. The research that went into this car, has all the answers about, batteries and disposal, power grids, how far people drive per day on an average, cold and hot temperatures etc...  Just enjoy a different path than the piston engine please.

[Tilar]

I just don't see any savings here. Using your figures,  On a 2 day 1000 mile trip, That $41,000 car is going to save me $24.49 over driving my $4000 Regal that I don't owe anyone for. And I stand a pretty good chance of still driving my 10 year old Regal when the batteries are long dead in that thing.

Jeez how you guys gonna handle when Hydrogen becomes main stream?,

Hydrogen has been proven time and time again over the last 35 years. The only reason it's not used now is because of the oil companies buying everyone out that comes along and patents anything new with hydrogen...

[Chargerrtforme]

I just don't see any savings here. Using your figures,  On a 2 day 1000 mile trip, That $41,000 car is going to save me $24.49 over driving my $4000 Regal that I don't owe anyone for. And I stand a pretty good chance of still driving my 10 year old Regal when the batteries are long dead in that thing.

Jeez how you guys gonna handle when Hydrogen becomes main stream?,

Hydrogen has been proven time and time again over the last 35 years. The only reason it's not used now is because of the oil companies buying everyone out that comes along and patents anything new with hydrogen...

For starters it's a 33k car with the gov incentive. People had few issues paying 100k for the 2 seat roadster in Ca?  Main point is it's the start of a different trend just like the hybrids were when the insight came out in 1990. Great move for GM.

[1969chargerrtse]

If one thing kills the electric car, it will be something that no one has mentioned so far: Resale value.

We're running 40 year old cars, sometimes with little to no added expense. If you buy a car today for $40k, it will be worth about $20k in 3 years, but with proper maintenance, you can drive that vehicle for 20 years or more. My sister just traded in her 1988 Ford LTD, which she bought new. Still ran great, but was starting to need some serious body work, so she just decided it was time for something new. Last year I bought a 69 Charger. All original. Runs like a top. Only thing I did was have the tranny rebuilt because it was slipping ($600). Doesn't need anything else.

Now think about an electric. You buy it today for $40k. Five years from now, the batteries will probably need replaced at a cost of anywhere from $8k to $15k. The batteries will need replaced whether you drive it, or just leave it sit in your garage, because that's the nature of batteries. Maybe an optimum shelf life of 10 years, but certainly not 20 or 40. That does not include the depreciation of the vehicle itself due to wear and tear, weather, accidents, mileage, all the other variables that currently make vehicles depreciate at such a steep rate.

So who is going to be willing to pay $15k to replace the batteries in a 5 year old car? No one. That means electric cars will have very little to no resale value as used cars. Would you buy a $40k electric, knowing that (a). You are going to lose your whole $40k because the car has no resale/trade-in value or (b). You will have to reinvest $15k in the car every 5 years if you decide to keep it long term, like more and more people are doing nowadays with gas powered vehicles? If you were in the market for a used car, would you be willing to buy an electric that is 3 years old for $20k, knowing that in two years you will have to put another $15k into it? And you wont be able to go to a junk yard and pull a set of batteries like you do a motor, because after a period of time, all of the batteries will be junk, regardless of how much they were used. And there will not be many backyard mechanics out there rebuilding batteries like there are today rebuilding engines.

They wont be able to give them away.

To me, it is clear that the only real solution to the whole problem, is a new type of fuel, not a new type of motor.

 To much of your information is incorrect to argue about. The only thing I agree about is a Hydrogen future. Honda is doing well with the FCX Clarity in CA and new Hydrogen stations are being built all over. It's not about big oil companies at all as they will be part of the Hydrogen producers. It's about the cart before the horse. Do they spend millions on Hydrogen cars with no stations, or millions on an infrastructure with no cars? It'll happen, just as soon as people allow the volts to happen. If you read up about the volt there is a long waiting list. Sit back and watch and I wouldn't worry to much about resale.  Let's sell the first car first..
P.S     8-year/100,000 mile(15) battery warranty.

[mauve66]

sooo, in 8yrs when people like me can buy used cars (10 yrs old min), i'm sure not gonna pay 4-10 grand for a car i might have to put 15 grand worth of batteries in in the next 2 years.......

oh yeah, that government incentive is coming out of our pockets also , it isn't free money.............. same thing with health care, oops, no political statements here.......

[1969chargerrtse]

sooo, in 8yrs when people like me can buy used cars (10 yrs old min), i'm sure not gonna pay 4-10 grand for a car i might have to put 15 grand worth of batteries in in the next 2 years.......

oh yeah, that government incentive is coming out of our pockets also , it isn't free money.............. same thing with health care, oops, no political statements here.......

And who says the batteries are or will be 15 grand?    jeryst?

[mauve66]

stock new battery (1 ft X 6 inches) costs $105 from autozone, $165 from the dealer
what do you think a new system battery will cost from the dealer, i doubt if auto zone will be able to stock them on the shelf
and we haven't even discussed installation yet

[Chargerrtforme]

stock new battery (1 ft X 6 inches) costs $105 from autozone, $165 from the dealer
what do you think a new system battery will cost from the dealer, i doubt if auto zone will be able to stock them on the shelf
and we haven't even discussed installation yet

OMG, were back to lead battery logic again?    Apples and oranges my friend.

[lisiecki1]

stock new battery (1 ft X 6 inches) costs $105 from autozone, $165 from the dealer
what do you think a new system battery will cost from the dealer, i doubt if auto zone will be able to stock them on the shelf
and we haven't even discussed installation yet

OMG, were back to lead battery logic again?    Apples and oranges my friend.

i think you missed his point...

[mauve66]

just comparing prices from old technology to new technology, did you think they would magically be the same???
depending on the source there are 7-15 million new cars sold in just the united states annually
its gonna be a long time before these 10,000 units (2010 in limited cities and the other 30-40000 units come 12-18 months later actually make a mark in the market as far as repair costs

yes, alternative energy sources can prove superior in the future as technology grows, but where is that money coming from??? we as taxpayers can't afford to subsidize anyone else, we already do it for the banks, AMTRAK, any other country that has weather problems, the mating habits of earth worms, healthcare reform, lifetime welfare recipients with no drug tests, illegal immigrants, etc.

toyota has ads saying they spend 1 million $ per hour developing safety items think what that kind of thing could do to a whole country if we just stepped back and decided to take care of our citizens by investing in the infrastructure of the country instead of hoping to stop a car 3 inches sooner, or gets .002 miles per gallon better

[Chargerrtforme]

stock new battery (1 ft X 6 inches) costs $105 from autozone, $165 from the dealer
what do you think a new system battery will cost from the dealer, i doubt if auto zone will be able to stock them on the shelf
and we haven't even discussed installation yet

OMG, were back to lead battery logic again?    Apples and oranges my friend.

i think you missed his point...

I don't think so, but really don't care about it much.  I think it's a great move forward, and those that don't, don't have to buy one and can drive their old cars.  Me, I'm moving forward.  I remember this same talk back when the hybrids came out, batteries batteries batteries, well guess what?  There are a lot of them cars out there and no one cares of the " battery" issues everyone talked about over and over.

[1969chargerrtse]

Ditto.  lets just wait and see.  I think it's exciting. All the negative talk won't change a thing.  It's a coming.

[jeryst]

I agree that a change is coming. Petroleum based motors have made an unfathomable impact on our world, but because of dwindling reserves, pollution, inefficiency, and whatever else, it's time to move on to something else. Hybrids and electrics are a first step as we grope our way along in the darkness. Maybe some day, we'll see our vehicles powered by an inexpensive nuclear reactor, like the "Mr. Fusion" in the "Back to the Future" movies - lol.

But, there are significant hurdles to overcome. As far as electrics, batteries need to go a long way in terms of power output, size, efficiency, and cost. So do the motors.

Hydrogen looks promising, but one thing that no one mentions, is that many of the hydrogen fuel cell designs use petroleum based fuels instead of water based fuels. Why? because it takes less energy to extract the hydrogen from petroleum than it does from water. I think its the wrong way to go, because once again, we are basing a technology on a diminishing resource. They need to concentrate their efforts on extracting hydrogen from water, instead. Maybe they'll develop the technology using petroleum, then switch over to water as the technology becomes more efficient. There are also other competing technologies as far as hydrogen is concerned. One, for instance, sees a hydrogen powered vehicle that fills up at hydrogen stations, while another envisions a vehicle that has an on board hydrogen generator and fuels up with petroleum, water, whatever. Which one will win out? Maybe they will both be developed, or one will spring forth from the other. Who knows?

It's almost kind of funny, however, that we used to use electricity as a means of transportation, but we abandoned it. Trolley cars and trains that used overhead wires to power their engines faded away into obsolescence for whatever reason. Maybe the overhead wires were too dangerous or too costly to maintain. Or maybe the petroleum based engine was just too cheap to ignore. I dont know the answer to that one. I guess everything that goes around, comes around.

No matter what, if there are economic incentives, and customers that are willing to embrace new technology regardless of the cost, then we will move forward, one painful step at a time. I'll bet there were a lot of people that said that the horseless carriage will never replace the horse.

[Chargerrtforme]

Well said. 

[BB1]

I think Hittler had a car company too.  Cheap on gas too.

[Ponch ®]

We need to put things in perspective...maybe electric/hybrid car technology hasn't been perfected for maximum efficiency yet, but neither was the internal combustion engine when it first came into use in cars and other vehicles. It was almost 80 years since its inception before someone came up with a reliable fuel injection system. Hell, people used to say that "the automobile" would never catch on because there weren't any roads....

[PocketThunder]

I think Hittler had a car company too.  Cheap on gas too.

  A beetle for everyone!

[Ponch ®]

I think Hittler had a car company too.  Cheap on gas too.

  A beetle for everyone!

Volks Wagen..."the People's Car"

[1969chargerrtse]

Awesome info here.

http://translogic.aolautos.com/2010/08/16/translogic-5-3/