The imminent gas crunch of the new millenia

[Troy]

Also, what happens when demand slows? OPEC lowers output which artificially raises prices.

[do you honestly think that that would happen?  They could do that, but if they do, do you not think that an uproar would happen?  The truth would come out at that time, and some way shape or form, something will have to happen to remedy it.  If not, then we should all become complacent little plebians who desire to become automatons.]

It happens all the time. I'm surprised you didn't know that:
At its March 2000 meeting, OPEC set up a price band mechanism triggered by the OPEC basket price, to respond to changes in world oil market conditions. According to the price band mechanism, OPEC basket prices above $28 per barrel for 20 consecutive trading days or below $22 per barrel for 10 consecutive trading days would result in production adjustments. This adjustment was originally automatic, but OPEC members changed this so that they could fine-tune production adjustments at their discretion. Since its inception, the informal price band mechanism has been activated only once. On October 31, 2000, OPEC activated the mechanism to increase aggregate OPEC production quotas by 500,000 barrels per day.

On August 3, 2005, the OPEC basket price rose to $55.43 per barrel, its highest price since the price band mechanism was established. Since December 2, 2003, when the basket price last crossed the $28 per barrel threshold, the OPEC basket price has traded above the $28 per barrel level for 432 consecutive trading days through August 4, 2005. At its January 30, 2005 meeting, OPEC decided that market changes had rendered the band unrealistic, and decided to temporarily suspend the price band mechanism.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/opec.html

Remember that when this "basket" idea came about, oil was selling between $15 and $20 per barrel with the average over the last 40 years at around $18. The whole idea was to control (and raise) prices.

Example of the government stepping in with a "quick-fix":
The rapid increase in crude prices from 1973 to 1981 would have been much less were it not for United States energy policy during the post Embargo period. The US imposed price controls on domestically produced oil in an attempt to lessen the impact of the 1973-74 price increase.  The obvious result of the price controls was that U.S. consumers of crude oil paid about 50 percent more for imports than domestic production. Put another way U.S producers received less than world market price.

Did the policy achieve its goal? In the short term the recession induced by the 1973-1974 crude oil price rise was less because U.S. consumers faced lower prices.  However, it had other effects as well.  In the absence of price controls U.S. exploration and production would certainly have been significantly greater. The higher prices faced by consumers would have resulted in lower rates of consumption: automobiles would have had higher mileage sooner, homes and commercial buildings would have been better insulated and improvements in industrial energy efficiency  would have been greater than they were during this period. As a consequence, the United States would have been less dependent on imports in 1979-1980 and the price increase in response to Iranian and Iraqi supply interruptions would have been significantly less.
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Whoops!

Europe solved their consumption issues by mandating more diesel fuel vehicles (which create more pollution) and by raising gasoline taxes. In most countries over there the tax rates are around 80% of the cost of fuel. Examples in the US include cigarettes and alcohol. Instead making these illegal in order to protect us from ourselves the government attempts to limit consumption by imposing rediculously high taxes. In some places the taxes are three times higher than the actual product. When the government doesn't want us to buy/import products from certain countries, how do they do it? Taxes - it's their easiest solution.

[Taxes?  That wouldn't fly here in the United States because (1) we are not a democratic socialist or socialist country whose citizens are used to getting the holy living crap taxed out of them (2) If Europe does something, when have you seen the U.S. copy it?  (3) who cares about Europe, we are talking about us.  no offense to the european population, two cocky americans are debating ]

The gas tax has been rising since 1932 when it was first introduced. The government noticed that there was an untapped revenue stream and needed to balance the budget. Certain groups believe that a tax of more than $1 per gallon would help in controlling consumption. It's not something I just made up.

My question was: "Where should it stop?" You are advocating that the government should control our actions. I'm saying that we don't need any more babysitting legislation.

[So has it dawned on you that they do that already?  Are you one of the "the path of freedom is thinner and thinner" alarmists?  If we could control our own actions, do you think that we would need a government in the first place?  Come on man, this is not babysitting legislation, this would be legislation that would be implemented to affect the economy as a whole to include the average citizens pocketbook.  What is so dreadfully wrong with that legislation?  What will it hurt you to go 10 mph slower?  Nothing at all, that is how much it will hurt you.] 

What makes a politician any smarter than the average citizen? We vote them into office (for better or worse) and they are servants of the people. I am perfectly capable of controlling my actions and anyone who isn't needs to be committed or hospitalized in some other manner.

Democracy itself is based on a social contract: In order to live in society, human beings agree to an implicit social contract, which gives them certain rights in return for giving up certain freedoms they would have in a state of nature. ... the rights (and responsibilities) of individuals are the terms of the social contract, and the state is the entity created for the purpose of enforcing that contract. Also, the people may change the terms of the contract if they so desire; rights and responsibilities are not fixed or "natural". However, more rights always entail more responsibilities, and fewer responsibilities always entail fewer rights.

People will only buy as much gas as they can afford to use and they'll find ways to decrease that consumption when necessary. People need to be accountable for their own actions and not have the government taking care of them.

[again, the government is there to take care of its citizens, or it would never have been emplaced to begin with]

Ummmm... whatever. Maybe a review of American history would be in order?

Troy

[XXSpiralXX]

Well, here's my    worth....

I Totally agree with Troy. If people would drive the posted speed limits now, we would save millions of gallons of gas & diesel. I drive for a living, and my fuel costs have more than doubled in the past year. It costs me on average $550 dollars to fuel my truck roughly every thousand miles. Now thats twice & sometimes 3 times a wk depending on how many miles I've driven and how much I've idled my truck. I am seriously looking into buying a APU [aux. power unit, aka a generator] to save fuel, and wear & tear on my engine. [not to mention, its good for mother earth]

I wish the govt would have mandated alt. fuels for govt vehicles. Why don't more cities,counties & states mandate that all non emergency vehicles in their fleets run on Natural gas or Propane/LPG??? This should have been done years ago. City and school buses, heavy construction vehicles,some of the worst polluters, Cabs, local delievery trucks and vans, US Postal service, UPS, FedEx, etc.......

We as a nation, dropped the ball a long time ago when it comes to energy, And now all those third world countries ain't so third world anymore......

Will we ever Learn

  You know, if all the factorys switched to hydrogen theyd be doing the world a favor too, but no theyre trying to push it onto the little guys, leaving the factories to eat up all the fossil fuels and kill the environment. But, theyre the ones in charge so its do as I say, not as I do.

[RD]

well its obvious that troy and i can debate this topic until the cows come home, but nevertheless, I believe we will have to agree to disagree on this.  Thanks for the discussion, but "55, staying alive" is how I will continue to think   I truly think at this point we are merely 

[Steve P.]

I also believe that driving at 55 MPH would save gas.. The real question is: WHO THE HELL WANTS TO??  

The population here is big and growing in leaps and bounds. It makes me crazy.   I can't wait till I can get out on the OPEN road and stretch my legs..  

Before you give me any crap about moving out to the country,,,, I did!! 11 years ago we moved to a quiet little county full of cow pastures. The little housing tract that we live in was the ONLY housing around and it was surrounded by pastures in every direction.. Stores were not far away but were small..

Now if you want to buy a new house anywhere near here you had better have a trunk full of cash and a high credit number..

I am ready for the old country roads of Upstate New York..............

[derailed]

Just to let you know Steve, If your looking at buying any back road country property in upstate NY anytime soon(if you can still find it), your gonna need a little more than a trunk full of cash. Land got real stupid here.

[Steve P.]

DRAILED,, where are you living??  I am from Rochester.. I found 6.7 acres with a 2100 SF. house and a 30 by 50' shop for $169K..

I live in a 1200 SF. house now on .15 of an acre and 2 realtors have told me I can get $185K..  Taxes are much cheaper here but auto insurance is RIDICULOUS!!

[bull]

Dang, Steve! All $169k will get you in Portland is an 800 sf boarded up meth house these days. I paid $167,500 for my house three years ago and it recently appraised at $239k. It's 1930 sf, two story, five bed 2 1/2 bath, two car garage with an RV pad on a 90X50 lot.

[RD]

u thread hijackers!

[bull]

Sorry! 

[RD]

i dont care, i thought it was funny

[mustanghater]

does this mean we can buy 2002 cameros  and hemi magnums for next to nothing 

[Steve P.]

Dang, Steve! All $169k will get you in Portland is an 800 sf boarded up meth house these days. I paid $167,500 for my house three years ago and it recently appraised at $239k. It's 1930 sf, two story, five bed 2 1/2 bath, two car garage with an RV pad on a 90X50 lot.

I'm doing better than you Bull..  I bought this place 3.5 years ago for the low, low price of $67,500.oo..  Of course I have done allot of work on it but it's now worth $185,K and climbing..

Oh yeah, my lot is 70 X 100 and have RV parking also.. I just wish it was all BIGGER!!

Rochester used to be a very big industrial city.. Many, many big companies. Now the big money there is what the baby boomer's are spending.. Too many jobs went out of the country.. We lost 2 huge GM plants there alone!! Now Kodak is all but gone under... Film is a thing of the past and there are tons of digital companies out there.. Sybron is defunct. Many others are gone also.. It's a damn shame...

[derailed]

Steve, Im between Albany and Saratoga. Land here is rediculous. Average prime 3 acre lot here is around $50 to$75k if not more. If you get out on the outskirts a little bit and head north its not as bad but it sounds like you got one heck of a deal. My friend has 8 acres with a 1500 square foot cape cod house on it and hes paying $6000 a year in taxes in the next town over from me. Wow i didnt realize Kodack was almost all done. I use to deliver alot of fuel oil to that plant and it was still pretty busy 10 years ago.

[PocketThunder]

 

[bull]

Steve, Im between Albany and Saratoga. Land here is rediculous. Average prime 3 acre lot here is around $50 to$75k if not more. If you get out on the outskirts a little bit and head north its not as bad but it sounds like you got one heck of a deal. My friend has 8 acres with a 1500 square foot cape cod house on it and hes paying $6000 a year in taxes in the next town over from me. Wow i didnt realize Kodack was almost all done. I use to deliver alot of fuel oil to that plant and it was still pretty busy 10 years ago.

I paid $45k for my stupid little lot and here you're talking about $50k for 3 acres! Cripes! But, it sounds like there's not much work there right now. I've got two jobs and I'm going nuts.

[Steve P.]

Well the fact is  ten years ago Kodak was still getting rid of many but had tens of thousands still.. If you go back to Rochester now you will HLPAG your pants!!  Many of the old Kodak buildings are completely gone.. All of the Elmgrove plant has been sold off.. Lee Rd. is down to a hand full of people. State St. , (main offices), has enough left over parking to hold a Super Bowl.....  It's just not the same..

Some French auto parts maker moved into the old Rochester Products building and was making train loads of money, but their mother company in France was losing it's butt, (in France), and moved it's production back to France.. Heinz Ketchup, (started out in Rochester in 1869), moved to Pa. Hell, I think Ragu is gone now too!!

It's very sad.. I have seen Rochester in it's hay day and am now watching it slowly go under.. Rochester used to be a MAJOR PLAYER in industry...

[hemihead]

I live in the Pittsburgh area. Real Estate is cheap, taxes are climbing like everywhere else,but the the industry has left here too.Not much steel industry here anymore,coal mines are all but closed.There are lots of minimium wage jobs here if you like to work 16 hours a day at 2 jobs or 12 hours a day at 1 job.Heinz left Pittsburgh for Illinois.The roads suck here,the women are ugly,the musclecars are way over priced.We have the 2nd highest gas tax in the country.There is a fee and a fine for everything in this state.Oh yeah, the weather sucks here too.So move here, the cost of living is low but plan on a long commute to earn a living.
It is coming to the point that the blue collar guy will not be able to afford to drive.The privelege of driving will be for the white collar worker and upper crust.

[Steve P.]

I live in the Pittsburgh area. Real Estate is cheap, taxes are climbing like everywhere else,but the the industry has left here too.Not much steel industry here anymore,coal mines are all but closed.There are lots of minimum wage jobs here if you like to work 16 hours a day at 2 jobs or 12 hours a day at 1 job.Heinz left Pittsburgh for Illinois.The roads suck here,the women are ugly,the musclecars are way over priced.We have the 2nd highest gas tax in the country.There is a fee and a fine for everything in this state.Oh yeah, the weather sucks here too.So move here, the cost of living is low but plan on a long commute to earn a living.
It is coming to the point that the blue collar guy will not be able to afford to drive.The privilege of driving will be for the white collar worker and upper crust.

  It seems like before long we will have another class.. Maybe it will be called the BLACK collar worker.. I also feel as though CEO's should go by GOLD collar.. Their pay in many cases is beyond ridiculous..  How much is enough??

A buddy of mine here in Florida has many years of management in the food and beverage industry. Since I met him about 10 years ago he has lost many jobs.. Hotels selling out and new ceo's with their own ideas have put him in bad shape.. He now works a few days per week and is struggling to keep his house.  I would like to know how the government figures we are in good shape??? The cost of living today and lack of GOOD jobs is forcing educated people to flip burgers.. Where are the uneducated people going to work??   I know... They can all join the military.

[Ghoste]

I see in the paper today that Vipers qualify for the great employee discount program.   I don't ever recall seeing Vipers as part of a rebate program before.   Surely the fuel cost spike hasn't left a glut of Vipers sitting on dealer lots.   This is just to make you read the ad right?

[HalfastAMX]

He now works a few days per week and is struggling to keep his house.   I would like to know how the government figures we are in good shape??? The cost of living today and lack of GOOD jobs is forcing educated people to flip burgers.. Where are the uneducated people going to work??

Well, one of the last resorts for the people may be Labor. There is no way in hell that any of the tradesmen i know will let foreigners or unskilled, non-union, little ratbastards invade our market. Hell, its one of the few jobs impossible to export.
Its not possible to do the things i do elsewhere. You cant build a 60 story scraper in china and ship it back here. They arent going to erect a 500 foot tall, 3 mile long bridge in some other rat trade little country either.

Bottom line is that union trade work isnt some joke anymore, it pays well, has great benefits, and is sometimes very satisfying.
Besides, you get to see AMERICA

BUY UNION   BUY AMERICAN   BOYCOTT CHINA


1/2

Ironworkers #86 Seattle Wa
                        #29 Portland Or.
                        #742 Honolulu Hi
                        #790 Oakland Ca
                        #118 Las Vegas Nv
                        #27 Salt lake city Ut

[Steve P.]

I'm with you Dean.. It's rather hard to build a power plant in Mexico and ship it here too.. The problem is, there are only so many of those type jobs..

I think we should really start putting it in peoples faces..

BUY AMERICAN/BUILD AMERICA

No more selling out...................... 

[Ghoste]

It's too late.  Corporate America isn't America anymore, it's corporate fuedalism and the execs operate in a mini aristocracy designed to line their own pockets at the expense of the peasantry.  If it can be built cheaper in China, tough.  Wal-Mart will peddle it someplace for them.
Sorry rant off.  I hate the political threads and yet here I am. 

[Steve P.]

Political or not, this is OUR LIVES!!

TV sells like no other.. I remember years ago, the local government was all about cleaning up our city and their commercials boasted, (KEEP AMERICA BEAUTIFUL)...   It worked for a while.. Till not long after they stopped showing the ads.


Remember in the 70's??  (BUY AMERICAN).....

Clothes lines made in America

Made In America USED to mean something!!!!

[Brock Samson]

   WOW!! this thread goes all over the place,...  
The gas went up here 11 cents per gallon for reg.   in one week now at $2.81 +.. at the "cheap" station.

  I took my Charger out Thursday for only the third time this year, went down to the "cheap" station, while waiting for the light to change at the intersection a '06 sedan tried to beat me to the pump (silver sxt), so guess who won...   
A bunch of kids waiting for the bus there & watching this cheered as I whupped it's sorry 4 door ass,.. he drove on...    musta been kinda embarrased..  
So any how, it cost me $47.oo to fill up with premium and the tank wasn't empty...  

  Kodak used to have a headquarters here in SF, i read they laid everyone off and moved out of the city, sold the property, it   musta been worth quite a bit being near the bay 'n all, but they were allready on the ropes from FUJIFILM muscleing them out of the film market.

In the '90s Honk Kong money started buying up all the property here in SF being as Hong Kong was going to the Communists and there is still a massive influx into the USA,.. better brush up on your Cantonise..
It's completly out of control here with the housing market, and everything's approching if not far exceedeing a million bucks.
  

If ya' haden't heard unions are on the ropes...
I know first hand.   
The labor. Sec isn't a friend to unions in case ya haven't heard,.. and the unions haven't helped their cause by spending all our union dues buying off politicians who turned around and screwed us.
(Remember NAFTA?... How about Bill Clinton's Chinese connections?.. and he was supposedly a Democrat!...)  http://www.caranddriver.com/article.asp?section_id=30&article_id=9763&page_number=1
...all the while union jobs are going the way of the Mom and Popp stores,..
...replaced by Walmarts...
    Here they've done turned SF into a gigantic strip mall, ALL the family owned businesses are gone, replaced by franchises...
I feel soooo damn old cause I keep telling folks how I used to know the family that owned this place or how this used to be a great this or that but now it's a Burger King...


  My aunt's 4 BR place in Liberty New York sold for $25,000 a few years back, because it's a dieing town with no jobs at all.
  ok, I'm done..   

[Ghoste]

You're preaching to the choir here.   I work in a unionized auto assembly plant and the writing is on the wall.   People tell me it's union greed but I have been to the golden tower that passes as our head office and if I'm greedy, how come I don't have limo service, 5 star dining facility, and laundry service on site.   I have a gaurd at the gate who searches me because I'm a potential thief instead of a uniformed doorman to open doors for me.   The barbed wire fence around our plant is angled to keep us in not intruders out.   I don't see sky or sunlight or weather instead of a panoramic view from a skyscraper in the city where head office is.
Are unions without blame?   No.   But if I'm racing to the bottom to compete with a worker in China then head office can go screw themselves and move there.