Interesting Article on the Demise of the V-8

[Mike DC]

I beg to differ with you Mike.  The US has a ton of oil to spare, reserves, untapped oil under the ground, plants that are shut down could be reopened, etc.  So, yes, it is out there, but in the US too many tree huggers cry the blues when we try to get this.  Don't forget that we now recycle oil too.  Where is all of that used oil going?  Im sure that something can be done with that.  Yes, I know Valvoline has the recycled oil now on the market in the "green" bottles, but why are they the only ones doing it?

The amount of oil the USA has . . . it's one of those subjects where the longer you look at it, the more complicated & ambiguous the answer gets.  I've been interested in the oil industry for years and I still don't feel very informed about the whole picture. 


The amount of oil in the ground matters absolutely nothing.  There are fields all over the world containing billions of barrels of perfectly good oil that will probably never be tapped, and some of those are in regions where the local govt lets the oil producers do whatever the hell they want.  

The only thing that matters is the economics of a field.  If oil sells for $100 a barrel and it cost $101/barrel to get oil out of a field, then it does not get pumped.  It doesn't matter if there is a trillion barrels being abandoned.  

There is indeed tons of oil in the USA, but a ton of it is non-economic.  Another ton of it is economic, but it will never get extracted out of the ground at more than a snail's pace, which renders the raw amount irrelevant for today's pricing.  (What good is inheriting a billion dollars if you can only withdraw it from the bank at a rate of $100/week for the rest of your life?  You're technically a billionaire but not in the practical sense.)  

Another ton of the USA's oil is "non-conventional" oil, which often means its not really oil at all.  Rather it's a form of oil's raw material that can be turned into oil with a bunch of money thrown at it.  We "found" a lot of non-conventional oil lately by reclassifying stuff that we've already know about for decades under the umbrella of petroleum reserves.  Some of it realistically deserves to be classified as oil in these discussions, but a lot of it does not.

[Ghoste]

What is the current situation with pumping in the Gulf?

[HPP]

...and automotive emissions are only a slice of the pie, not the whole problem.

[Mike DC]

What is the current situation with pumping in the Gulf?

Gulf of Mexico?  I dunno exactly.  I haven't been following that deal lately.  

The bottom line is that there is producible oil in the GOM and that means there will be operations drilling to get it.  An American order to restrict or stop drilling in the GOM just means it won't happen right off our coastline.  There are still lots of foreign operations just a few miles farther out.  They will merrily continue on drilling (and potentially spilling) anyway.  

[Ghoste]

As they are.  And if my understanding of it is still the current situation, we talk about decreasing our dependance on foreign oil but then not permit the American drillers to get the domestic stuff.  So its just that, talk.

[lloyd3]

Well said elacruze!  I worked as a government contractor for over 20-years.  My clients were EPA and DOD and the Bureau of Reclamation (Wreck-the-nation?).  There are forces pulling in just about all directions, and for all the reasons you specifically mentioned. It's amazing that anything actually gets done anymore, when you consider our current regulatory environment. How this all ends up is anyones guess, but in my mind, it's almost a sure bet that V-8s will become far-less common. Heck, they already are. The era that produced the big V-8s that we so love here, is long past.  Cheap oil, relatively uncrowded roads (the USA had 100 million fewer souls then) and a booming economy were the crucible that brought the musclecar to life.  There is still lots of it left, but cheap oil will never happen again, ever.  Our highways, in general, are pretty crowded and poorly maintained (there are a few exceptions, but in the more populated sections of the country this is the norm). There will always be the wealthy few who have exotic and powerful toys, but the era of mass-produced high-performance is over. Stick a fork in it.  The average Joe will be driving econoboxes from here on out.  And that's if he's lucky. I see mass-transit in the future for lots of folks (far easier to "control" and far-more energy efficient).

Freedom in this country is rapidly becoming an illusion.

[Cooter]

"From our perspective, as consumers, it's not such a good deal. We pay more up front -- and while that will be somewhat mitigated by reduced fuel consumption, those savings may -- and probably will be -- swept away by down-the-road maintenance and repair costs. Smaller, higher-stressed engines tend not to last as long as larger, less stressed engines. A force-fed (turbocharged or supercharged) engine is not likely to be a trouble-free 150,000 mile engine. Maybe these new-generation turbo'd and supercharged engines are built tougher -- and will last longer. Or at least, as long as a similarly powerful, but less stressed, V-8. We'll see. If they don't, look out. Replacing a turbo on a late model car is typically a $2,000-plus job. Many of these CAFE-engineered new cars have two of them."

This is what I've been saying for YEARS..Good thing all my junk is older junk that I can and WILL still work on..just one more reason not to buy a newer car.

[Mike DC]

As they are.  And if my understanding of it is still the current situation, we talk about decreasing our dependance on foreign oil but then not permit the American drillers to get the domestic stuff.  So its just that, talk.

We can't cut our dependence on "foreign" oil and keep our dependence on domestic oil.  The oil market is worldwide.  All the oil produced on earth goes to the same huge auction block before the portion that we buy comes back to the USA.  (At least that's what happens in the financial sense.)  



If OPEC ever actually stopped all production, there goes about 1/3rd of the world's oil.  Prices go up accordingly for everyone in the world, including the USA.  It works that way regardless of how much or little of the world's oil supply is being produced by the USA.  The only way we cut our dependence on "foreign" oil is to cut our dependence on oil in general.  

The threat has never been that OPEC might shut off their pumps for a while and leave us with no oil whatsoever.  They can't do that, never could.  They only have enough power to shut off their pumps and raise worldwide prices.  That is already more than enough to crash our economy.  



We cannot get free of OPEC's threat by just producing enough to supply ourselves.  We only get 100% free of it by having enough unused spare oil-producing capacity sitting idle to make up for OPEC's portion of the worldwide market.  (Never gonna happen in anyone's wildest dreams.  It's geologically impossible by a wide margin.)  

If we could get ANY spare production capacity then it would give us a lot more leverage in the whole matter.  (For decades Saudi Arabia has been the only oil producer in the world with any real spare capacity.  And lately they are spending more money-per-barrel every year to hold onto it.)  By far the most practical way to do that would be to just withhold a portion of the production capacity that we currently have.  

[Ghoste]

It's kind of a sick self defeating cycle in a lot of ways isn't it?

[TruckDriver]

I am really suprized that no one here caught this, that are dip shit president slipped this through congress quietly on the 28th....

Obama administration seals deal with 54.5 mpg standard

The Obama administration on Tuesday released final regulations designed to double the average fuel economy of the American auto fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80273.html#ixzz254VfkjTu
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80273.html?hp=l8

[Ghoste]

Nice.  Get your North American car while you can because the tiny cars only are on their way.

[Mike DC]

Well, we have tried leaving the MPG rules stangnant & full of loopholes for the last 20 years.  

The result was 5000-lb trucks being the new commuter cars, 3 middle-eastern wars fought in that time, and a population that pretends there is no connection there.




I'm not thrilled about 54mpg either, but IMHO the American public could use some moderation on this subject.  Would a 35mpg regulation have been so terrible? 

Or better yet, just raise the price of gasoline and leave the cars & trucks alone? 

[lloyd3]

A fleet average of 54.5 mpg?   Are automakers going to start selling mopeds and motorcycles now?  Oh well, by 2025 I'm guessing that I won't really give a damn.

[stripedelete]

The more we drill the less they pump.  The supply/demand ratio will always remain at the price they choose.  It's a strategic commodity and they are in control.  We have only got away with our "oil wars" because we won the cold war, but, that is going to change.  The only way out is an alternative energy source. 

In the mean time, why not 54 MPG?  We sent a man to the moon with a computer you get in box of cereal today, but, we can't make this happen?  Mike DC is spot-on.  In regards to CAFE, the automakers have been "phoning-it-in" for the last 25 years.  In this case the EPA has my full support.       

As for the V8, back in the 20's or 30's there was probably some writer lamenting the demise of the V-12.  Myself,,,I've never missed it.

[Fred]

Oh well, by 2025 I'm guessing that I won't really give a damn.

I'm with you.

[resq302]

by that time I could have restored a nice old Dodge Power Wagon! Screw these new cars!

[HPP]

I am really suprized that no one here caught this, that are dip shit president slipped this through congress quietly on the 28th....

Obama administration seals deal with 54.5 mpg standard

Actually, that was mentioned in the third post on this subject on teh first page, which has subsequently lead to the oil conversation.

[Ghoste]

Well, we have tried leaving the MPG rules stangnant & full of loopholes for the last 20 years.  

The result was 5000-lb trucks being the new commuter cars, 

 

The key question there though is, did they become the new commuter cars because Americans wanted to drive vehicles that got lousy gas mileage or did they want to drive vehicles that were large enough to accomodate their needs?  I'm going to guess number two. 

[resq302]

Well, we have tried leaving the MPG rules stangnant & full of loopholes for the last 20 years.  

The result was 5000-lb trucks being the new commuter cars,  

 

The key question there though is, did they become the new commuter cars because Americans wanted to drive vehicles that got lousy gas mileage or did they want to drive vehicles that were large enough to accomodate their needs?  I'm going to guess number two.  

Very true.  My wife all the time wonders WHY I have to have a pick up truck.  Here is my reasoning for her:  1) I work for a police dept as a communications officer.  I live about 30 mins away from my job and where I live, we get snow where about 10 mins away will get rain.  I don't have the pleasure of not going into work because the weather is crappy.  Hence, the need for 4wd.  2) I do a TON of work around the house.  Sheet rock or plywood will not typically fit onto a 4 door sedan or let alone make it home in the shape it was at the Lowes store.  3) I carry around auto parts sometimes which would never fit into a typical car or even SUV.  4) It has a full frame, hence, makes me feel a lot safer than driving a car with unibody (personal preference on that one but the wife agrees).  5) I can add a plow to it and get snow removed quicker instead of using a snow blower (if I so chose).  6) I can help my friends out with having a truck since numerous times I have been called upon to go get furniture or help people move, and lastly (and probably the biggest one) 7) I can TOW my enclosed car trailer if I need to go to a long distance show and not have to worry about driving on the crappy bias ply tires if it is a strict show.

[elacruze]

I have a '68 Dodge 3/4 ton pickup because I need it. I also have a Chinese scooter that gets 70 mpg for milk runs and errands.
Of course it never snows here.

[stripedelete]

Well, we have tried leaving the MPG rules stangnant & full of loopholes for the last 20 years.  

The result was 5000-lb trucks being the new commuter cars, 

 

The key question there though is, did they become the new commuter cars because Americans wanted to drive vehicles that got lousy gas mileage or did they want to drive vehicles that were large enough to accomodate their needs?  I'm going to guess number two. 

The manufacturer that provides both,,,, wins.

[Ghoste]

If it can be done, I believe that if it could it would have already happened but I guess this will be a good test of whether or not that is true.  In any case, the free market doesn't get a choice, a federal decree is going to mandate the products we get to pick from and my own opinion is that we will be forced to compromise greatly in the area of size and utility.
I hope I am wrong though and the automakers will find the technology to deliver the type of vehicles our buying habits say we want and deliver fuel efficiency figures that are nothing short of astonishing.

[Mike DC]

  
The govt isn't mandating the sticker prices.  You can get a pretty fuel-efficient large car if you make the whole thing out of unobtanium and pass the mountains of extra expenses on to the customers.


Whenever I'm in doubt about how a change in some aspect of our lives will play out, I just look for an answer that pleases the wealthy but makes it more difficult for people in the lower & middle classes to afford their daily life.  It's usually what happens.

[1974dodgecharger]

this will increase the value of muscle cars drasticly 

I am really suprized that no one here caught this, that are dip shit president slipped this through congress quietly on the 28th....

Obama administration seals deal with 54.5 mpg standard

The Obama administration on Tuesday released final regulations designed to double the average fuel economy of the American auto fleet to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80273.html#ixzz254VfkjTu
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/80273.html?hp=l8

[Cooter]

Well, we have tried leaving the MPG rules stangnant & full of loopholes for the last 20 years.  

The result was 5000-lb trucks being the new commuter cars, 

 

The key question there though is, did they become the new commuter cars because Americans wanted to drive vehicles that got lousy gas mileage or did they want to drive vehicles that were large enough to accomodate their needs?  I'm going to guess number two. 

Neither IMO.....People Drive big 'ol crazy, heavy, Pick ups and SUV's because they want to feel safe by driving a tank and could care less how many MPG it gets.
Ask any soccer mom in a Big ass Ford Excursion....