Where are we going?

[Neal_J]

Within the past year, the stock market has fallen by half, home prices by 30-50%, Fannie & Freddie are propped up, most banks are zombies, the automakers are all but dead and most everyone who still has a job is worried about losing it.  We know that social security and Medicare are unsustainable and our states and cities are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.  The dominoes yet to fall are credit card debt & commerical real estate, to say nothing of what happens when the US$ is replaced as the international debt currency.  Of course, biggest unknown is where the money will come from to Federal bonds we're printing to pay for all the interventions made to date.

Without this becomming a political discussion, I feel we're staring straight into the Great Depression II.  It feels like the efforts made to date will merely cushion the inevitably hard landing.  Where do you think we're headed and what can be done about it?

[jb666]

Within the past year, the stock market has fallen by half, home prices by 30-50%, Fannie & Freddie are propped up, most banks are zombies, the automakers are all but dead and most everyone who still has a job is worried about losing it.  We know that social security and Medicare are unsustainable and our states and cities are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.  The dominoes yet to fall are credit card debt & commerical real estate, to say nothing of what happens when the US$ is replaced as the international debt currency.  Of course, biggest unknown is where the money will come from to Federal bonds we're printing to pay for all the interventions made to date.

Without this becomming a political discussion, I feel we're staring straight into the Great Depression II.  It feels like the efforts made to date will merely cushion the inevitably hard landing.  Where do you think we're headed and what can be done about it?

I personally feel we're already almost there. Closer than we think. Things can't get much worse, can they?

You say commercial real estate hasn't hit the bottom yet? My industrial park, out of 115 buildings has 74 empty right now with "FOR LEASE" signs on them. Some have "TWO MONTHS FREE!" signs out front. They can't GIVE commercial space away. Who needs space when they can't keep a business afloat?

Without going in "that" direction, all I can say from personal experience is that we're allowing all of our industries to be taken over by China. And when that fails, there's Vietnam. Then India. Then where?? How many 3rd world countries will we go through before we end up back in the US? Will we ever??

You're damn right those of us with jobs are worried.. But those I really fear for are the kids of today. I have two teen-age daughters and pray EVERY DAY that things improve.. What do THEY have to look forward to in this world!??!

[moparguy01]

I really don't feel that we are staring into the second great depression, I think we're already in the early stages of it. Our economy is not doing so good but because of every cost going up, including businesses fixed expenses, there is no way for us to compete with a country willing to provide labor for 2 dollars a day. I hope I'm wrong and things get better, but i'm afraid we have a long way down before we hit bottom and start coming back up.

[jb666]

What I find funny is if you watch GMA in the morning the "analysts" claim the economy has hit bottom and is on the way up.  Go home and watch the 6:00 news and they'll tell you how everything's the lowest it's been since pre-1990 days. Make up your mind.

[Mike DC]

        
               
A couple years ago I thought Peter Schiff was one of the few people who made any sense.  Now his negative viewpoint of our future back then has been justified.  And right now he still says we're not done falling yet. 






$10 trillion.  We haven't been paying our bills for a good 40 years now.  No surprise that it became a problem eventually. 

Nobody took all these recent losses from us.  That money never was real in the first place. 



    

[skip68]

I find it funny that our own government say's to live within our means and yet our government has not been doing it just like most Americans.  Most are living on paper and not real cash.      We are not done falling that's for sure.       

[Neal_J]

It's a red letter day when Skip & I agree, but but he's completely right.  The housing crisis was brought about by folks borrowing when they lacked sufficient funds.  Now, our government is doing the sEXACT same thing.   Damn.

Stepping away from the thin line that separates this thread from politics, perhaps we can turn to question 2:  what can you do?  Not as a country, but as an individual or family, to insulate yourself from the effects of the implosion to the extent you can.  For example:

Pay off debt, esp credit cards
Bail 100% out of the stock market on this temporary bubble
Invest your IRA in CDs

Other ideas?

[Ghoste]

Pay attention to where things are made or where the profits ultimately go.  The Democratic Peoples Republic of Communist China sure isn't going to help feed you.  The Land of the Rising Sun doesn't much care about your troubles either.

[Charger_Fan]

Check out this cartoon from a 1934 Chicago Tribune paper...



...seems eerily familiar, doesn't it? This big governmental wheel keeps going round & round it seems, only this time they seem to be doing a better job of socializing everything. Pretty friggin' scary!

[73chgrSE]

Things can and probably will get much worse. Right now, this isn't comparable to the great depression. No one I know is starving yet. People are still borrowing money and/or eating up their savings but they aren't completely out of money just yet. My advice to every north american is to buy some guns, and ammo, stock up on food and start a garden, maybe get some chickens. If you live in an apartment and buy your food from macdonalds eveyday you are vunerable and will be totally dependant on the government for everything when the sh!t really hits the fan in 2012.

[NHCharger]

I don't think we will see another great depression. However the steps the government is taking to prevent one will drag the recession out much longer. I think it will be mid 2010 before things level off/hit bottom, and then will be many years of stagnant or anemic growth. The guberment will create many social programs to "help" people who are down on their luck and in the process create a whole new class of people who are dependent on the government and will vote for the candidate whom offers the most freebies.

I'm 50 y.o. and I feel that I was lucky enough to live during the best era that America will ever see. I see us heading for a socialized state like several of the European countries where people feel that their entitled to a piece of the pie, no matter how little they work or contribute to society. I just read that some lawmakers are pushing for a VAT tax to fund socialized health care and help pay off our massive debt, especially since the IRS announced that their revenue is down 34% from last year and the budget deficit will be even bigger than projected.

On question 2 I've done as much as I'm going to do. I own my house free and clear, pay my ONE c.c. off monthly. No payment of any kind. I co-own some apartments with my Dad (no mortgage) and my wife and I own 2 rentals (no mortgage).

I saw this recession coming 4 years ago. I took a more secure job three years ago which meant a 20k pay cut, but I'm still working and have my health so I'm not complaining.

[Mike DC]

     

The future looks like a crashing US dollar.  We're griping about the inflation at home, and we don't realize that the $10 trillion of debt isn't even circulating in the system right now.  The implications of that little detail are pretty terrifying.




There are tidbits of news coming out that Dick Cheney has been shifting his major personal assets out of US dollars in the last few years.  So what else do we wanna know?  All politics aside, is there any better example of someone whose actions would indicate the true health of the US's finances?


           

[wordslikebullets]

Someone asked what do we do to fix this...

Yes we can pay off our debt and try to get in good standing pinch and save.

Its not me that I'm so worried about.  2 or three months ago the government gave themselves a raise durring this recession.  THAT is what has to stop.  We need to cut government in half but in order for that to happen washington has to cut it and cut spending.  We the people need to be less dependant on the government.  I say Cut, Cut, Cut, and then look again and Cut some more.

We need to call our congressmen and tell them to stop SPENDING and that means any and ALL!!!...
Call your Represenitive and do the same.

Remember they are to be working for US not the other way around.

Cuts Hurt our Schools, Social Issues, and lots more that I won't go into...

I remember one time when I was little and I was at my grandmothers house for dinner and the potatos were comming.  I remember being really hungry and the mashed potatos looked great.  So when they came to me I started pileing them on and my grandma said to me "I think your eyes are bigger than your stomach..."  and she was right.  as of three months ago I am 35 and weighted 365.  That is years and years of good times and pizzia when I wanted a twinkee I had one.  Then I woke up one day 365lbs and high blood pressure and swelling in my legs...just like our government.  I had to take a good hard look at myself in the mirror and make the decision to change and knew it wasnt going to be easy.  The next day I just went for a 30min walk after work and for food I cut carbs...Oh man that was hard.  for the first two weeks it was hard and I wanted to cheat but I knew if I did not change I would have a heart attack soon and I was not going to let that happen.  I kept on and as time went on I found it easier to work out and the food I was eating was actuly good.  3 months later and 70lbs lighter, faster, stronger I could quit and give up but I know I have to push on to be healthy and to reach a loss of 100lbs or more...

If we could just make the changes it would only hurt for a little while and then I would be stronger to push harder, be smarter and I know we could do it but the people in washington think we just need one more twinkee when that could be the thing that pushes us too far...

Lets Change Washington's mind on spending...

Crazy I know....

[skip68]

     Great job on the diet.      Keep up the good work.

[Todd Wilson]

Things can and probably will get much worse. Right now, this isn't comparable to the great depression. No one I know is starving yet. People are still borrowing money and/or eating up their savings but they aren't completely out of money just yet. My advice to every north american is to buy some guns, and ammo, stock up on food and start a garden, maybe get some chickens. If you live in an apartment and buy your food from macdonalds eveyday you are vunerable and will be totally dependant on the government for everything when the sh!t really hits the fan in 2012.

We go into anything like the depression was we will see anarchy like you cant imagine. The days of the family farm and people surviving on their own are over. Most do not have the means or knowledge to do so. Food comes from the store. In my grandma's days food came from the family farm. Those that still have jobs will be robbed constantly.


Todd

[jb666]

Things can and probably will get much worse. Right now, this isn't comparable to the great depression. No one I know is starving yet. People are still borrowing money and/or eating up their savings but they aren't completely out of money just yet. My advice to every north american is to buy some guns, and ammo, stock up on food and start a garden, maybe get some chickens. If you live in an apartment and buy your food from macdonalds eveyday you are vunerable and will be totally dependant on the government for everything when the sh!t really hits the fan in 2012.

We go into anything like the depression was we will see anarchy like you cant imagine. The days of the family farm and people surviving on their own are over. Most do not have the means or knowledge to do so. Food comes from the store. In my grandma's days food came from the family farm. Those that still have jobs will be robbed constantly.


Todd

That's already happening. Watching the news every day it gets worse and worse. Robberies, shootings, violence all caused by the recession. When someone's backed into a corner and FORCED to provide for their family they will do almost anything. It's a scary world out there right now boys and girls.

I've got a ton of guns and more ammo than I know what to do with --- I just pray to never be a victim of a home invasion caused by some poor guy who just needs to feed his family.

Anyways, back on track. Someone mentioned above that we need to "change Washington's mind on spending". How do you suggest we do that? Obama's giving out $$ like crazy and we're all paying for it... Figuratively and literally.

[WingCharger]

.

[Mike DC]

             

It's still happening because the American public still isn't even scared yet. 


IMHO any time that issues like abortion or gay marriage or environmentalism are still even part of the discussion during an election, we're not worried yet.  Genuinely worried people don't fight over ANYTHING other than feeding themselves.  Fighting for social change/preservation is a luxury that people have when they're still eating regularly. 

[Ghoste]

You should probably add wasting our time on internet forums discussing something as useless as overpriced gas sucking toys.  (which would indicate none of us are actually scared yet either  )

[Guns N Rotors]

Hank Jr summed it up pretty well...

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River she's a goin' dry
The interest is up and the Stock Markets down
And you only get mugged
If you go down town

I live back in the woods, you see
My woman and the kids, and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun rifle and a 4-wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these ole boys can't do
We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Because you can't starve us out
And you cant makes us run
Cause one-of- 'em old boys raisin ole shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma'am
And if you ain't into that we don't give a damn

We came from the West Virginia coalmines
And the Rocky Mountains and the and the western skies
And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name, just hillbilly
My grandpa taught me how to live off the land
And his taught him to be a businessman
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway nights
And I'd send him some homemade wine

But he was killed by a man with a switchblade knife
For 43 dollars my friend lost his life
Id love to spit some beechnut in that dudes eyes
And shoot him with my old 45
Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Cause you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
Cause one-of- 'em old boys raisin ole shotgun
And we say grace and we say Ma'am
And if you ain't into that we don't give a damn

We're from North California and south Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

[PocketThunder]

Things can and probably will get much worse. Right now, this isn't comparable to the great depression. No one I know is starving yet. People are still borrowing money and/or eating up their savings but they aren't completely out of money just yet. My advice to every north american is to buy some guns, and ammo, stock up on food and start a garden, maybe get some chickens. If you live in an apartment and buy your food from macdonalds eveyday you are vunerable and will be totally dependant on the government for everything when the sh!t really hits the fan in 2012.

We go into anything like the depression was we will see anarchy like you cant imagine. The days of the family farm and people surviving on their own are over. Most do not have the means or knowledge to do so. Food comes from the store. In my grandma's days food came from the family farm. Those that still have jobs will be robbed constantly.


Todd

  I spent many a summers with a garden hoe in the family garden.  Man that was hard work and all my friends were playing Nintendo.  I remember butchering 30 chickens and plucking the feathers out so mom and grandma could process the meat.  Canning tomatoes, etc..  All kinds of work that no one does anymore. 

[Charger_Fan]

.

Good point.

[Mike DC]

         

When govts/economies come apart, it's usually not the people who are most self-reliant who survive the best - it's the people with money/power enough to lord over them again. 


Just like the present.  The people who are most able to run the technology aren't the winners.  They're the mid-level employees whose work enriches the winners. 

   

[jb666]

You should probably add wasting our time on internet forums discussing something as useless as overpriced gas sucking toys.  (which would indicate none of us are actually scared yet either  )

Oh please, don't get me started on that subject. Driving around in ANY of my pigs has been pissing off the liberal Hybrid owners for a while now. I'm sorry, but I'll park my car before I sell it for one I have to plug in.

[NHCharger]

but I'll park my car before I sell it for one I have to plug in.

[Mike DC]

 
You ain't the only one.




But IMHO that discussion is completely academic. 

I have absolutely zero worries about gasoline being outlawed in America.  It's become so built-in to our society that I think the idea of eliminating it is completely absurd.  If they don't wanna see it being burned in muscle cars then they'll package it "for use in lawnmowers only" or something.  And I have hard time buying even that scenario. 

We will probably still be able to buy & burn gasoline even long after it ceases to be a viable source of energy based on its raw price. 

[SFRT]

I see it as a return to normalcy. I can remember when credit and credit cards where very hard to get, you had to have actual cash to back it up. No more living high on the hog on unlimited, unearned and unpayable credit. I had the good luck to watch my father destroy himself through credit and other associated schemes so he could have way more 'stuff' than he could pay for and it bred into me a total hate of debt. I am and will always remain debt free. If I cant buy it with surplus cash, it aint gonna happen.

just about everyone I know who is 'in trouble' put themselves their through greed, laziness or 'believing the dream' that was force fed to them by scammers. The governement is a scam, the banks are a scam. no one except those with real wealth and skill can really buy that zillion dollar dream house, 57 cars and a boat and send all their kids to the best schools. but the scammers told you it was a right.

Additionally, I spent 30 years in a 'entertainment' culture where everyone thought they could have everything they wanted by just looking cool and dropping the right names. surprise surprise. The world is a harsh place and no matter what they told you in school, there are no gaurantees. In the end, if you put yourself in a position of dependency your gonna get screwed. 30 years and a gold watch is bullshit.

and at the risk of a 'political' statement, the current insane policies by our new overlord are the greatest swindle in the history of man kind.

[chargerboy69]

        
               
A couple years ago I thought Peter Schiff was one of the few people who made any sense.  Now his negative viewpoint of our future back then has been justified.  And right now he still says we're not done falling yet. 
    

Peter is great.  He was on Glenn Beck every week when Glenn was still on CNN before the switch to FOX.  Peter is a definite tell it like it is kind of guy.  Glenn and Peter have been talking about this for the past couple years now saying this is what was coming, and they were laughed at. 

I also feel we are a long ways from hitting rock bottom.  This has been building for years, and has been accelerating recently.  Blame does not solely lie at the feet of the current administration, but in my opinion they are making things much worse.  Now they are talking about a VAT Tax (National income tax) to pay for universal health care. If this happens, add ten to twenty percent to everything you purchase. The government can not run anything correctly.  What makes them think they can run two car company's, and our health care system?

[Mike DC]

I don't entirely agree about health care though.



A trillion dollars in public money, and the US federal govt. 

We're very quick to trust these two things to go together any time it involves Humvees & Blackhawks.  But as soon as the ideas turn to spending it here at home, the same voices all suddenly start declaring that it's lunacy to trust this govt with any large operation just on principle.  There's something a little bit wrong with this flip-flopping logic IMHO. 



I think we can trust the govt to use our military's power wisely - up to a point.  Just like I think we should trust it to come up with some kind of minimal heath care assistance for the public good - up to a point. 

(Although right now I have the uncomfortable feeling that BO is going almost as far off the deep end with domestic spending as GWB did with his foreign wars.)

   

[Tilar]

and at the risk of a 'political' statement, the current insane policies by our new overlord are the greatest swindle in the history of man kind.

I have to agree with that.

I was raised on a farm and we still own it. We won't go hungry. I know there are a lot of people that aren't that fortunate. I hope it doesn't get that bad but also at the risk of a political statement, America has to fall to the level of countries like Mexico and others in order for them to create their one world government.

As far as health care, Look at the other countries that have it. It just doesn't work. There is nothing universal about their universal health care, and in order to pay for it they would have to raise our income tax brackets to around 50% for everyone.

[Mike DC]

I agree that cheap nationwide health care doesn't work.  There isn't anywhere on earth you can point to, and really say, "See?  If we would just institute THIS country's plan in the US, then everything would be fine!" 





But I think we really need some kind of basic universal catastrophic coverage.  It's not that I think everyone deserves to be taken care of, it's that we're already paying a lot for these things indirectly. 

We won't pay $1 for prevention, so we pay 5x as much in the ER once it gets really bad. 

And it's not helping anything to let several kids fall into poverty because one parent got too sick to work and got behind.  Just look at the prison system - right now we're paying millions of dollars a year to feed & house a lot of those same kids a few years down the road.   

[Tilar]

Exactly. I know they have to be careful of the drugs that come into the marketplace,  but the cost to the manufacturers to trying to cover their butt in this country is what drives medicine up. You can drive across the border into mexico and buy behind the counter medicine for 1/4 of what you pay here.

And insurance companies that get hit with crazy ass lawsuits from people that won't even spend a few bucks on life insurance blows my mind. If they would change the law to read that nobody can file suit for more than what their life insurance coverage is, you'd probably see a lot of overcharging in the medical field stop, incuding malpractice.

[Mike DC]

I'm not convinced about the drug costs.  I suspect that Mexico is cheaper than the US because that's where they can & cannot get more money out of people. 




Asking a pharma business how to get their costs lower?  Of course they're gonna say "cut our regulations & liability costs."  But IMHO they're gonna say that regardless of what the situation actually is. 

It's like asking Corporate America if they'd like their taxes lowered in order to stimulate some job growth.  Regardless of whether it actually will do jack squat for the jobs, their answer to our question is never gonna be "no." 


     

[Tilar]

Same drugs made by the same companies.  And you may be right. I won't argue for something I read on one site or see on one news network and someone reads or watches on another because in most cases both are right through the writers eyes,  but for the cost to be that much different just a few miles across the border means something beyond "this guy will pay more than the other guy".

[Mike DC]

but for the cost to be different just a few miles across the border means something beyond "this guy will pay more than the other guy."

I don't see the problem with that explanation. 

They're setting their overall prices more or less country-wide.  The fact that the two prices happen to show up within a few miles of each other at the border towns would be a pretty small part of the whole picture. 



Just look at gasoline.  Gas in Missouri is consistently WAY less than the same stuff in SanFran.  They can list all kinds of excuses about different refineries or transportation costs or reformulations or anything else.  But "this guy will pay more than the other guy" still gets my vote. 

[last426]

Hank Jr summed it up pretty well...

The preacher man says it's the end of time
And the Mississippi River she's a goin' dry
The interest is up and the Stock Markets down
And you only get mugged
If you go down town

[snip]

We're from North California and south Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Yeah but then they start marrin' their sisters and in a generation all is lost.  Kim