Blu Ray To Be Obsolete In 5 Years

[Old Moparz]

I read an article in "Sound & Vision" (used to be Stereo Review) not long ago that stated a newer format was on the horizon. Made sense to me since the downloading of movies is catching on & technology moves faster than we like & makes things obsolete on us at times.

Sound & Vision article:
http://www.soundandvisionmag.com/realitybytes/2873/singing-the-blus.html


I saw more info on line here:
http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/104176

Samsung says Blu-ray to be obsolete in five years
A Samsung exec has put the first bet down on a death date for Blu-ray: "I think it has five years left," he says. "I certainly wouldn't give it ten."

Mind you: Samsung is a big player in Blu-ray hardware, so this isn't sour grapes over HD DVD or anything like that. In fact, Samsung is trying to push players big time this year and says 2008 is "going to be huge" for Blu-ray, noting that Samsung is back-ordered on product now.

If 2008 is going to be huge for Blu-ray, it better pick up the pace quickly. Blu-ray disc sales are still stalled at around 6 percent of the optical video media market and have been all year, selling roughly $7 million worth of product a week. (DVDs sell well in excess of $100 million worth each week.)

So what happens after five years? Something new could replace Blu-ray... but what? It's hard to fathom that a larger-capacity optical disc (with even higher resolution than the current 1080p standard) would be much in demand, as getting people to upgrade televisions that quickly to another (not yet existent) HD format that would support such a resolution would be a tough sell.

Is downloadable video about to finally make a breakthrough? Not in today's DRM climate. And what about ditching optical video altogether in favor of flash media cards?

Anyone placing bets or making predictions?


-----------------------------------------------------------------

I have absolutely no intention of buying a Blu Ray player. I made that choice before I read any of the above, but mostly because I hardly ever buy movies on any format. If anyone else is in the same position I am, after reading that it may be gone in the near future, I'd give second thought to getting into another format, especially with the cost of Blu Ray as high as it is.

[John_Kunkel]

I'm hedging my bets, I'm looking at VCR/DVD players that will play Blu-Ray.

At my age I don't even buy green bananas let alone look five years down the road.

[mikepmcs]

good thing i have 5 dvd players.  I need to score another vcr before they are gone forever.  I just had to throw one out cause it was eating tapes and I could not fix that darn thing.

No intention of buying blu ray ever.  I'm also out of the movie buying business as well.  I just wait for them to come to direct tv.

[Silver R/T]

I rarely invest in new technology, unless I really need it. I just had my new computer build last year but my tv/vcr are 10+ yrs old and still working like new

[AKcharger]

Why is a dvd like $10 and Blue ray $30 for the saem movie??

[mikepmcs]

same reason a vhs tape is $99-$1.99.  Does that help

I surmise your question was rhetorical but I couldn't resist.

[nh_mopar_fan]

I'm sticking with my laser discs until they figure all this out....

[Mike DC]

         
Ask George Lucas about formats.


People always bitch about him releasing Star Wars again on the new format of the month.  (As if we're not cheerfully re-buying every other goddamn movie on earth in exactly the same way.)  "He knows he can just keep re-selling us this same stuff each time!  What a racket!" 


But look what happens when he waits to release the movies for a while to see if it'll be overtaken by a better format soon (as he did with both VHS and DVD at first).  Then the same people will bitch just as loudly:  "He's just holding off so we'll pay even more for the next format!  What a racket!" 


   

[defiance]

Meh.  People make money by publishing contentious articles.  That's the current state of US media.  I'm guessing they're full of crap, but I don't know for sure. 

[Mike DC]

 
The timeframe predicted in the article might be crap, but the gist of the predicted shift isn't.     


I think it's all going to the internet/computer eventually.  Television, telephones, tapes/discs, cable, radio . . . all of it.  All these different ways of passing around digitized media & information are gonna consolidate into the same setup sooner or later. 


--------------------------------------------------


And piracy?  Look for it, big time. 

I see absolutely no reason to think that what's happened to music will not also happen to visual media too.  There is absolutely nothing standing in the way except the average home computer's processing & trasferring capabilities, and that stuff is continuing to multiply at a breakneck speed.

   

[jb666]

I'm hedging my bets, I'm looking at VCR/DVD players that will play Blu-Ray.

At my age I don't even buy green bananas let alone look five years down the road.

That's funny!!

I wouldn't be surprised at all.. We all know how fast technology turns things into dinosaurs.

[defiance]

 
The timeframe predicted in the article might be crap, but the gist of the predicted shift isn't.     


I think it's all going to the internet/computer eventually.  Television, telephones, tapes/discs, cable, radio . . . all of it.  All these different ways of passing around digitized media & information are gonna consolidate into the same setup sooner or later. 


--------------------------------------------------


And piracy?  Look for it, big time. 

I see absolutely no reason to think that what's happened to music will not also happen to visual media too.  There is absolutely nothing standing in the way except the average home computer's processing & trasferring capabilities, and that stuff is continuing to multiply at a breakneck speed.

   

Agreed - if the article would have said 10-15 years, it would have been much more plausible - but of course, then it's a big "so what?"  That's a healthy life for a video format.  The problem is that the internet system in the US is simply not ready for the transfer rates needed for hd media.  The rate center-to-home system is still mostly copper, and the infrastructure itself is designed with moderate overhead at best with current usage levels.  Local wires will be overhauled and the backbone expanded only as usage and revenue justifies it, and that will take years. 

Of course media-less delivery is the way of the future - but the future is further than this article would lead to believe.  I look forward to it, but I'll enjoy blu-ray in the meantime

[Brock Samson]

I SAY BRING BACK HAND PUPPETS!!! 

[Old Moparz]

.

[mikepmcs]

I SAY BRING BACK HAND PUPPETS!!! 

That is disturbing on so many levels.

[daytonalo]

I'm praying 8 tracks come back !!!

[moparstuart]

I'm praying 8 tracks come back !!!

I still play mine in the birdible

[jb666]

I'm praying 8 tracks come back !!!

8 Tracks, Vinyl & Cassettes. Some day our grand kids will be saying "What are those things??"

[Charger_Fan]

I'm praying 8 tracks come back !!!

8 Tracks, Vinyl & Cassettes. Some day our grand kids will be saying "What are those things??"

My kids already do!

I need to buy a few new VHS player too, before they're gone. Our family has over 400 VHS tapes, as of our count a few years back. Not being able to watch them anymore would suck.
Oh & I haven't bought one Blu-Ray disc or player yet...I saw no reason for it.

[Manfred318]

Ive not had any need for a blu-ray player. The Blu-ray players and movies are too damn expensive anyways. Ill just stick to DVDs VHS and Laserdiscs.
Speaking of the Vinyl and 8-track thing. I was talking to some kid at work(I work at my old high school) one day about music and I told him I had several of the albums we were talking about on vinyl and a few on 8-track and he said what are those. I tried to explain but it just went over his head. He just walked away with this confused look on his face.

[Mike DC]

Right now there's still little need for a Blu-ray if you don't have a HD television set (a reasonably large one) to use it on. 

Without the better TV, getting Blu-ray is basically like paying extra for CDs instead of cassette tapes and then playing the CDs on a set of sh*tty old speakers.

[jb666]

Right now there's still little need for a Blu-ray if you don't have a HD television set (a reasonably large one) to use it on. 

Without the better TV, getting Blu-ray is basically like paying extra for CDs instead of cassette tapes and then playing the CDs on a set of sh*tty old speakers.

This I agree with 100%. We bought a 42" HD TV about 3 months ago.. The picture is AMAZING, especially with Blu-Ray DVD's

[bull]

Yes, they are going to get rid of Blu-ray but I found out they're just going to change the name to Billy-ray, everything else will remain the same.

[TruckDriver]

I rarely invest in new technology, unless I really need it. I just had my new computer build last year but my tv/vcr are 10+ yrs old and still working like new

Same for me. I still have 9 year old computer with Windows XP, A VCR I use, a 6 year old DVD player, 6 year old digital camera, a 15 year old 19" tv in my bedroom, and a 10 year old 27" tv in my living room. They all work excellent. Hell, I still got several video taped movies I bought years ago, and still have never opened to watch

[dodgecharger-fan]

Even if you never buy a Blu-Ray disc, if you are in the market for a DVD player, buy a Blu-Ray player instead.

The prices are coming down on the units that upconvert your existing DVDs. That alone is well worth it.
Going forward, plan your movie purchases along these lines:

If it's a movie you really enjoy, consider that paying more for the Blu-Ray version might be worth it. That's subjective and entirely up to you... you might not ever buy the Blu-Ray version, but it's still an option for you if you already have the player.

If the Blu-Ray version is the same price as (or cheaper than) the DVD version, buy the Blu_Ray version.

If the movie is big on effects or epic scenery, consider the Blu-Ray version to get the full experience.

If the movie is more or less just a story and not loaded up with big visuals, compare what extras are included on the DVD and Blu-Ray versions. If they are the same or you can live without the extra bells and whistles on the Blu-Ray version, but the DVD and enjoy the improved picture quality that the upconversion delivers.

Also, for the "non-epic" types of movies, consider previously viewed Blu-Ray discs at your local movie rental place. I just picked up a couple yesterday for a few bucks less than a new DVD version of the same movie: I get the better picture, better audio, and all the extras.

Watch for sales or just plain shop around. I was at two different video stores yesterday. I walked out of one with absolutely nothing. I just thought their prices were too high. Right across the street, everything I looked at was cheaper and almost in line with DVD prices for the new stuff. Think a buck or three more for the Blu-Ray version.

Even on a smaller TV, there are some benefits to the HD source: the wider aspect ratio that movies get shot in give you more to look at. Sure you get the black bars on the top and bottom, but if you ever get the chance to compare a standard definition movie and high definition movie on the same screen, you'll see what you're missing at the edges of the picture. It might not matter in all movies, but in some it makes for a better experience.

About the only caveat: if your TV does not have an HD input - either component video or HDMI (or even DVI) - then don't expect to get too much of a better experience. Still, if you're looking to buy a DVD player, the argument still stands to buy a Blu-Ray instead.... you might need a new TV pretty soon.

[defiance]

Another thing to keep in mind if you're shopping for HD stuff.  If you buy a new TV, *Don't settle for Component video!*  It's nothing to do with quality; component video is an analog signal, and HDMI is a DRM protected digital format, but the visual quality will be basically just as good either way.  But what DOES matter is that blu-ray discs have a DRM only 'flag' in the data.  If that flag is set, the video will only output HD resolution over a DRM-certified output (HDMI or DVI).  Component won't work then.  I don't think any movies have been produced with this limitation yet, and I think the studios have all agreed to not start until (2010 I think?) but they REALLY want to start DRM-only protecting their movies, so I wouldn't expect them to wait any longer than they have to.

Also, this applies to many upconverting players NOW.  My PS3, for example, won't upconvert DVDs over component, only hdmi.  I think nearly all players are this way now (though older ones weren't).



In short, if you get a new TV, be sure it has HDMI or DVI, otherwise you won't be able to play new HD stuff on it in the very near future.