Opinion on future value of classics as new electric cars emerge?

[suntech]

Something funny : Al Gore came to our town, in a PRIVATE JET, on his "save the world " trip. He insisted on having a hybrid car to drive him from the airpot to the place he had the speach!!!! 9 MILES that was . HMMMMMMMMMMM........travel the world in a private jet, then jump in a hybrid car for a 9 mile trip!!! That my friends........is enviremental friendly!!!!

[Mike DC]

         

The switch to alternative-propulsion vehicles makes sense only in terms of advance preparation for the coming shortages of cheap oil.

Just on their own merits, none of these new propulsion schemes really make economic (or even environmental) sense over the traditional gasoline-powered car.  They're all primarily just ways of juggling the damage around, and they're not truly reducing enough of it.     




As for the long-term gasoline cars issue? 

IMHO the supply and demand for gasoline powered cars isn't going anywhere for a long, long time.  It'll just get progressively more expensive to operate them until they're eventually relegated to car enthusiasts & the rich. 

IMHO the only thing we really have to worry about is legislation to artificially force the gasoline cars out of our reach.  (And this may eventually come to be a MAJOR threat.  Even Detroit will have an incentive to be against us once they're primarily investing in the newer methods.)

     

[WingCharger]

There are always radical enviremental freaks that think they have the answer on everything.
At least here in Norway, and i guess that goes for most of the world, most of them are young, urban people, that think that all travelling tasks can be solved by using train and buses etc. They have never had to own a car, since they live in the middle of a big city, so they have never faced the tasks that needs to be handled if you live on the country-side. Force them to move out to something they would call "middle of nowhere", and force them to use their solution of handling normal everyday tasks, like getting groceries, getting kids to school and different activities, in a place with no railway system, and 2 buses a day......... That would teach them a lesson!!!
These people seems to think that electricity also is something that you automatically get, when you plug in to the wall, and don't realize that it has to be made. They are of cause against nuclear plants, so we will need a few thousand Hoover Dams!!!! Then, when electricity prices are going trough the room, due to lack of it, they will be the first ones to bitch about it, because they are "enviremental friendly" and should not be penalized for that!!!
Here in Europe, we where inspired by our governments to buy diesel cars, with cat. and particle filters, to be enviremental friendly,and the next thing they do, when a big enough crowd has done so,  is to raise the price on............Diesel!!!
E 85 is supposed to be environmentally friendly, but it affects the corn prices!!!!
But........................ all this is about the things we do to handle what needs to be done on daily bases, and not really the hobby part of our lives IMO.
I do not think Nascar, World Rally Championchip, Formula 1 etc. will suffer from gas prices. Nor do i think the Classic cars will suffer from it. You might drive it a little less, if you used to drive it every day, but in most cases it is the #2 car anyway, so there is another, less thirsty car sitting beside it in the garage. There will always be people that loves classic cars, and i have a very hard time to believe that this stuff will affect their value in a negative way. 

I agree with most greenies being from the city. I live on a farm in a very rural area, and we cant work without a big dually diesel truck. Just getting to school, you need the diesel bus, and we live far enough we cant bike, and you cant get groceries on a scooter. The E85 thing is a sham. You cant let the farmers get rich. That has been repeated over and over. I may be 14, but I know shit that has confused guys my dad knows.
His friend from work is making biodiesel in a big tank he got from his job at the power plant. Everything is home made. My dad got a bunch of grease for free because he is on the county fair board, and is having him make some.

THERE IS NO DO-IT-ALL SOLUTION!!! They wont understand that!
$4.55 for a gallon of diesel is BULLSHIT!!!!

[aussiemuscle]

Dont' worry about gas too much. World will hit peak production in 30-50 years (no new oil wells) after that all runs out in 20 years after that, then they can move on to 'shale oil' which is the lower value oil. it costs more to extract petroleum out of it, so they haven't used it as yet. that will last another 100 years. The environment however can't sustain that (at current levels) but i think it was during the jurassic period carbon levels were 5 times higher than today (which is one reason such big lizards could exist, high carbon is good for plants, they grow much better. oxygen is a waste product for plants, it's poison to them).

We were told that all old cars would be forced out when they introducted unleaded fuel. that hasn't stopped us. If the amish can get around in horse-drawn carts then we can get around in old 70s cars. Muscle cars will probably end up like old 1920s cars today, being only 'club' registered for limited driving.

[Mike DC]

World will hit peak production in 30-50 years

Not to derail the thread, but 30-50 YEARS?  Opinions can differ but I think that's really pushing it. 

A ton of smart people think we're at peak oil right now. 
(And not just people who stand to profit from it.)



And not only that, have you ever read Matt Simmonds's book from 2004? (He's not exactly a greenie.)  He has made a pretty persuasive case that Saudi Arabia's stated oil reserves are massively overinflated. 

That's a potentially GIGANTIC monkeywrench.  For decades, not even the worst doom & gloom oil predictions have given thought to anything like this scenario.  Saudi Arabia's long-term reserves have always traditionally been that one huge towering column on all the charts.  For the least 40-50 years, the world's entire energy policy has been built around the idea that Saudi Arabia still has absolutely stupid amounts of fresh oil under the sand to pump. 

[68charger383]

Attrition will slowly make the big cars and SUVs start to become a rarity on the road in a few years if gas stays up around the $3 range. We'll see more small cars (like in Europe) on the road. Our cars will be even be more of a unique thing to see coming down the road.

I think the bigger problem will be in 20-40 years....when we start to kick the bucket....will the past and current generation of kids want these cars. 

[WingCharger]

I think the bigger problem will be in 20-40 years....when we start to kick the bucket....will the past and current generation of kids want these cars. 

I WILL!!!!

[dodgecharger-fan]

World will hit peak production in 30-50 years

Not to derail the thread, but 30-50 YEARS?  Opinions can differ but I think that's really pushing it. 

A ton of smart people think we're at peak oil right now. 
(And not just people who stand to profit from it.)



And not only that, have you ever read Matt Simmonds's book from 2004? (He's not exactly a greenie.)  He has made a pretty persuasive case that Saudi Arabia's stated oil reserves are massively overinflated. 

That's a potentially GIGANTIC monkeywrench.  For decades, not even the worst doom & gloom oil predictions have given thought to anything like this scenario.  Saudi Arabia's long-term reserves have always traditionally been that one huge towering column on all the charts.  For the least 40-50 years, the world's entire energy policy has been built around the idea that Saudi Arabia still has absolutely stupid amounts of fresh oil under the sand to pump. 

Not arguing against your point, but there's lots of information that contradicts that.
I think that's why this whole oil "crisis" is such a mess.

For the last 40-50 years, it would have been in Saudi Arabia's best interest to say they had the most oil in order to laud the highest amount of power.
Now, if you follow the supply-and-demand line of thinking to explain current high prices, they should be saying they don't have as much in order to allow the price to rise as it has.

So, which is it? (I'm not throwing this down at you Mike. I'm just asking as a way to provoke thought in anyone who reads this.)

One could argue that they're leaking the idea of lower than reported reserves in order to boost the price.
On could also argue that they continue to fib about their reserves, but someone has figured it out and the speculators are latching on to the idea and that's driving prices up.

On the other hand, there is information that oil deposits in the gulf of Mexico are producing far beyond their expected capacity and some that were thought to have been exhausted have been replenished and began producing again. If that were to continue, and more deposits were found to be doing the same, the world's energy policy wouldn't need to rely so heavily on what the Saudi's say they have or don't have.

68charger383 has a great point and if nothing else, if people started conserving, they save themselves a few bucks. If they pollute less, their neighbourhood will be that much nicer and maybe they'll be happier and nicer.  At the same time, this whole oil crisis mess will kick start the push toward alternative energy. In the end that will serve a single purpose for the most part: reduce our dependency on foreign oil (even if that dependency is suspect). Even if it's at the cost of the environment in developing these new alternatives, reducing that dependency is a good thing.

Now, I'm going to pick up my 71 New Yorker with a 440-4 in it. 
What? It's very well tuned!

[jmanscharger]

Three words. Steam and Gas, old guys still buy the steam engines and tractors, prices are high. But when this age of video playing youth gets old I see that market losing steam. Some of these young guys will be doing resto ricers...old cars are still popular for quite some time unless hydrogen or electric have some real horsepower breakthroughs. If so charger hemi hydrogen anyone?

[WingCharger]

Three words. Steam and Gas, old guys still buy the steam engines and tractors, prices are high. But when this age of video playing youth gets old I see that market losing steam. Some of these young guys will be doing resto ricers...old cars are still popular for quite some time unless hydrogen or electric have some real horsepower breakthroughs. If so charger hemi hydrogen anyone?

I like old steam tractors! I have a a 1953 farmall Super C tractor, but its not steam. I am restoring it.

[jmanscharger]

I have cosmetically restored my dad's orginal 1952 Minneapolis Moline Z. My kids like to ride but as generations pass, my nephews don't even want to learn to drive it. My Chargers interest them however.

[nakita7]

I personally have been wanting an electric car since I was a kid, and now at 41, I might be able to buy one in the next couple years. Electric vehicles have been around for 100 years, but are not quite practical yet. That should change, and could have changed by now, but the answer is real simple...oil companies can't make millions off of electricity. That might change as utility companies merge worldwide, so this could go 2 different ways:

- The demand for electric cars will go up. Supply=demand. So the price of electricity will go up, gas will go down (less demand) or..

- The demand for electric cars will not be there, and gas prices will continue to go up as per usual.

I hope it kinda goes the number 2 scenario, where I can still buy an electric car, and the rest of the world can keep running gas (it's like the Mac computer, we love our 'best kept secret!). I will always love Mopars, but for a driver, I will have to use something else, and the idea of have Mopars just sitting there, being used once in a blue moon, paying insurance etc is not smart to me. I always go with common sense, which I realize is not popular these days, so it's a tough call as to how this will play out...

[Mike DC]

For the last 40-50 years, it would have been in Saudi Arabia's best interest to say they had the most oil in order to laud the highest amount of power.
Now, if you follow the supply-and-demand line of thinking to explain current high prices, they should be saying they don't have as much in order to allow the price to rise as it has.

So, which is it? (I'm not throwing this down at you Mike. I'm just asking as a way to provoke thought in anyone who reads this.)

One could argue that they're leaking the idea of lower than reported reserves in order to boost the price.
On could also argue that they continue to fib about their reserves, but someone has figured it out and the speculators are latching on to the idea and that's driving prices up.

Yeah, I've considered that issue too.  It's certainly a valid thing to take into account.


But the way Simmonds came to his viewpoint was just too difficult to have been anything intentional on the part of the Saudis.  Too much of the info was drawn from stuff published literally decades ago.  And the trail of thinking was WAY too convoluted for the Saudis to have expected anyone to draw that conclusion any time soon.

Simmonds basically went through hundreds of technical papers that the Saudi engineers have published to peers over the years (about refinements in drilling and exploration techniques).  He drew his conclusion based on the lengths they were going to in order to explore new areas and to keep the fields producing as they are right now.  Half the time he was having to reverse-engineer which field they were talking about in which paper, because it was usually not being specified in the paper for secrecy reasons.  Stuff like that. 


The whole thing basically reads like this:  Decades ago, the Saudis probably looked at the untapped areas in their country and made a guess about the oil reserves.  They looked at where the geology exactly matched the existing huge oilfields, and made (an understandable) assumption that the new areas would probably contain at least some decent amounts of oil too. 

But unfortunately it's not bearing out that way at all.  The geology is identical, and the modern exploration has been getting pretty significant, but the huge oil pockets just aren't being found. 

The only decent sized unexplored areas left in that country are the areas right near the Iraq border and the farthest-out areas that are hardest to transport.