Opinion on future value of classics as new electric cars emerge?

[1969chargerrtse]

This has been bugging me for awhile.  I can't seem to get a confident feeling on this subject.  The new Camaro is due next year, then the Fantastic Chevy Volt.  This is the beginning of electric cars as I see it.  This is big, real big.  Soon after the volt other companies will be introducing the all new plug in cars, with generator back up.  The Honda FCX Clarity now roaming the streets of CA on Hydrogen might also be common in our future?  Big question is , what will this do for the old Dinosaurs we are driving ( sorry ).  That along with the fear of collecting dying off as we die off, Or will these take the other turn and become huge Americana collectables of a time now past?    I think when most people have quiet electric cars in one bay, the classic in the other will be worth even more.  What are your thoughts and have you thought about this also?     It seems the new Challenger hasn't hurt prices for the originals at all?  I would think a sharp looking Camaro SS conv or 2 dr Charger would be the same case, just proving that a more modern version was created because of the deep respect for the original.  Yes?

[Brock Samson]

i think your worrying for no reason.
sure things are changing but jumping on whatever bandwagon comes along is not a smart way to proceed.
you'r better off buying a regular high mileage Civic or even an older chevy Metro if saving gas/$ is your goal.
these electric hydrogen vehicles have still to be sorted out and there really no infrastructure for them yet.
wait to see what the Tesla sedan will be like...
by the time that's actually on the market we'll all have a much better indication of the best course of action.

remember when mobile phones first came out, they were the size of a briefcase and cost many thousands of dollors.



Don't be going all green on us now...

[Harlow]

Even with the invention (or maybe even perfection) of other alternative fuel cars I don't see the use of gasoline powered cars dying out very soon at all. It will decline but I don't see everyone in the United States throwing away their current or older vehicles (work trucks come to mind) in the near future. Its definitely going to get more and more popular as they become more affordable and well established. 

[1969chargerrtse]

i think your worrying for no reason.
sure things are changing but jumping on whatever bandwagon comes along is not a smart way to proceed.
you'r better off buying a regular high mileage Civic or even an older chevy Metro if saving gas/$ is your goal.
these electric hydrogen have still to be sorted out,..
Don't be going all green on us now...

Don't worry about me, I ain't going green.  In fact I brag to all my buddies how they should thank me for spewing out tons of poisonous fumes doing my job to keep global warming active.  CT is getting warmer each winter,  . Between my gas guzzling BB Charger and winter coal burning stove I'm happy to help keep my neighbors warm.    Just curious if theses classics will go up or down as the automotive evolution continues on.  I think it's closer than you realize.

[Brock Samson]

 I live in the land of the Prius, every fouth car here is a hybred or smart car...
that's fine for them,.. but not me.
now I may reduce my herd down to two vehicles, perhaps my eveyday ride will be a neo Chally SE stick in a couple years but i doubt I'll ever be able to part with my Parade Float...
even if i have to keep her in the garage and sit in the drivers seat making varrrooom varrrooom noises... 
it's value is to me pricless. and from the reaction it gets out on the street most folks think so too, they stop and swivel their heads, point wave and say something appreciative. I don't even think new Ferraris and Aston Martins get the props my Skunk does.

   

[1969chargerrtse]

I live in the land of the Prius, every fourth car here is a hybrid or smart car...
that's fine for them,.. but not me.
now I may reduce my herd down to two vehicles, perhaps my everyday ride will be a neo Chally SE stick in a couple years but i doubt I'll ever be able to part with my Parade Float...
even if i have to keep her in the garage and sit in the drivers seat making varrrooom varrrooom noises... 
it's value is to me pricless. and from the reaction it gets out on the street most folks think so too, they stop and swivel their heads, point wave and say something appreciative. I don't even think new Ferraris and Aston Martins get the props my Skunk does.

   

The Prius thing is my point.  Trust me when The sharp looking Volt hits the streets with super fuel economy to boot, things will change , fast.   I hear ya on the reaction thing.  Everytime I make a run in my car I end up having long great conversations with people I meet.  " Sit in the car and go VVvvrooom"  That's funny. 

[Aero426]

As far as being able to use our cars, this is a total non issue.  We are a LONG way from gasoline being unavailable.   And even it if was, there will still be technologies developed to keep old cars running.

Value?  Who knows.  For the short term, 20-30 years, I see no problem at all.   Cars like the Charger will always be good looking and in demand to some degree.   We are a society that lives on nostalgia.

[WingCharger]

I have several different theories on what could happen:

1. The volt is so popular that it becomes the most popular car, and classics are forgotten.

2. Classics skyrocket when more fuel efficent battery cars become common.

3. Classics are outlawed by the goverment to conserve fuel and save the enviroment. (Please note: Many crazy enviro groups are trying to outlaw muscle cars. REALLY! Straight from a groups speech I saw on TV: "Me must outlaw and remove all performance vehicles built before 1974!! They are polluting monsters!)

Oh, I heard a prius yesterday. Guess what they sound like? IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII'MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM GAY...




They Volt is actually pretty cool looking, and im sure some green group will bash it for being to wide.

[Aero426]

I have several different theories on what could happen:

1. The volt is so popular that it becomes the most popular car, and classics are forgotten.

2. Classics skyrocket when more fuel efficent battery cars become common.

3. Classics are outlawed by the goverment to conserve fuel and save the enviroment. (Please note: Many crazy enviro groups are trying to outlaw muscle cars. REALLY! Straight from a groups speech I saw on TV: "Me must outlaw and remove all performance vehicles built before 1974!! They are polluting monsters!)

Oh, I heard a prius yesterday. Guess what they sound like? IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII'MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM GAY...




They Volt is actually pretty cool looking, and im sure some green group will bash it for being to wide.

Wing,

The thing to remember here at your age,  is that in a few years, you will have the ability to help choose who leads the country.   You have the ability now to lead your peers away from the green Kool Aid being served up for your generation as the "in thing".    Alternative technologies are certainly needed for the future, but there needs to be a realistic balance.

[hotrod98]

Back in 1980, we were told that we would never see fuel with ratings above 87 octane again. I sold several big block cars that would be worth a lot of money today because I believed the government. Won't happen again. I just don't believe anything they say. I drive my cars and it hurt like hell to see them sitting in the garage and the driveway and thinking that they had become relics. I tried octane booster and anything else I could think of just so that I could drive them, but nothing worked. It was a dark period in my life.
I've already converted some of my e-bodies to late model drivelines and who knows, one of them may end up with an electric or hybrid driveline some day. Never say never.

[RD]

3. Classics are outlawed by the goverment to conserve fuel and save the enviroment. (Please note: Many crazy enviro groups are trying to outlaw muscle cars. REALLY! Straight from a groups speech I saw on TV: "Me must outlaw and remove all performance vehicles built before 1974!! They are polluting monsters!)

what they dont realize is that a honda civic with a bad O2 sensor will spew out worse pollutants than a finely tuned muscle car... stupid people come up with many reasons as to why these cars need to be gone.  what they dont realize is that all the cars 74 and below that actually participate in putting CO2 into the air is less than 1% of all the vehicles in the US.  Again, stupid people come up with many reasons as to why these cars need to be gone

[CharcoalCharger]

Jay Leno once said it is better to drive an old car than a new one.  He said if you take the energy used to build a car today, and some people buy a new one every few years, the factories pollute more than his 40-50 year old car.  Plus you have all these used cars sitting around.  I think our cars value will hold fairly steady.  The real expensive cars may come down, but for the most part they will be worth something to someone.   

[six-tee-nine]

That's also true but do not underestimate the power of the car induestries. They don't care about the environment but they wanna sell as much cars as they can.

What worries me the most these days are the things like i hear of some tree hugging guys : they wanna make everyone pay extra tax for cars older than 5 year because they pollute more than younger cars.
But they don't care if you can afford a new car every five year (maybe thats a stupid thing to say when you spend $ 50.000 on the resto of a vintage car) but heck you know what I mean.
And i does not make sence..... I know sales people driving 150.000 miles in 4 years then they get a new car (Ok according to the hugger guys)
Me, I'll do 100.000 miles in 15 years......then my decent Diesel burning economical VW still is'nt worn out..... but still i'll be the big polluter since I drive a 15 year old car......

Oh boy don't get me started.......Too late I'm angry now

[bull]

I'm happy to finally see some variety in the automotive industry's propulsion choices. Comepetition is good. Variety is good. Investment diversity is good. Therefore it's good to have gas-powered cars as well as hybrid cars, fuel cell cars and electric cars.

That said I believe there will always be gas. It may not be available on every corner someday like it is now but it will always be there. I can see the possibility of it getting as scarce as racing gas is now but that's decades away IMO. How long has it taken the industry to come up with a semi-viable electric car? How much longer will it be before they build one that the average Joe can afford and transport his family in? I think it's going to be a win-win for new technology and classics.

[WingCharger]

Back in 1980, we were told that we would never see fuel with ratings above 87 octane again. I sold several big block cars that would be worth a lot of money today because I believed the government. Won't happen again. I just don't believe anything they say. I drive my cars and it hurt like hell to see them sitting in the garage and the driveway and thinking that they had become relics. I tried octane booster and anything else I could think of just so that I could drive them, but nothing worked. It was a dark period in my life.
I've already converted some of my e-bodies to late model drivelines and who knows, one of them may end up with an electric or hybrid driveline some day. Never say never.

I have always wondered what will happen to classics when gasoline is phased completly out?
Maybe some smart feller will invent a conversion kit for MOPARs to run them on electric or hybrid.

[1969chargerrtse]

I've been commenting on the future of Hydrogen cars for some time now,and people kinda shrug it off like it's far in the future.  Well I took a coffee run in the Charger this morning and low and behold on the front page of the paper was an article about how there was a Hydrogen car convoe yesterday throughout our state and how we are building the first station next year and the town of hamden in CT will run town vehicles and on and on.  Wow, this is exciting.  It stated there were 60 stations in the US at the moment and how Hydrogen is not only clean but unlimited.  With the Honda's running around in CA, and several stations there, IT"S COMING FASTER THAN YOU THINK, and I'm super excited to be heading in a direction that will allow us to finally have an unlimited supply of fuel for our cars, and not from people that live in caves and want us dead.  YA HOO!  I'm leaving for the day, but I will read the article again and give more info on it.

[moparstuart]

I've been commenting on the future of Hydrogen cars for some time now,and people kinda shrug it off like it's far in the future.  Well I took a coffee run in the Charger this morning and low and behold on the front page of the paper was an article about how there was a Hydrogen car convoe yesterday throughout our state and how we are building the first station next year and the town of hamden in CT will run town vehicles and on and on.  Wow, this is exciting.  It stated there were 60 stations in the US at the moment and how Hydrogen is not only clean but unlimited.  With the Honda's running around in CA, and several stations there, IT"S COMING FASTER THAN YOU THINK, and I'm super excited to be heading in a direction that will allow us to finally have an unlimited supply of fuel for our cars, and not from people that live in caves and want us dead.  YA HOO!  I'm leaving for the day, but I will read the article again and give more info on it.

there was a guy back in the 70's and early 80's here in blue springs missouri (roger billings)  who build hydrogen cars and everyone laughed at him !!!      These sound like the way to go with only water as a byproduce/ehaust emisison .

[WingCharger]

I had seen on TV, that you can run a carbureted gasoline engine on hydrogen. They did it using a hose and tank, and shot it directly into the top of the carb. 
It was a late 70's Monte Carlo, and it ran like a bat out o hell! It had to be started with gasoline, but it ran on hydrogen. The way they did it wasnt practical, but it proves a point!

Oh, does Chrysler have a vehicle in development like the volt? If they dont, I hate to say this, they better get their asses going!

[dodgecharger-fan]

I still can't get passed the idea that the pursuit of these alternative propulsion systems is like trampling through an uncharted piece of the rain forest, stomping on all the previously undiscovered plants and insects, to save the last monkey known in the area.

The end doesn't necessarily Justify the means.

Yes, the end result is a vehicle that produces less pollution, but at what cost, in terms of pollution and energy consumption, does it take to create that vehicle?

There just seems to be a lot of information that says it takes a lot more energy, and creates a lot more - and nastier - pollution to create these cars.

For me the jury is still out.

If I could get a vehicle that pollutes my immediate neighbourhood less and saves me a buck or two in the short term, I'd be happy to call the whole pollution thing a wash - less emissions in my driveway cost more emissions at the factory = the same overall pollution factor. I'm not saying it IS that, I'm saying I'd be less inclined to dismiss the new propulsion systems if this were the case. If everyone made their own little piece of the world a cleaner place, then the whole world will benefit. Stop trying to fix the globe, just fix your immediate space.

All that said, I'm fairly certain that I'm not the only person thinking this way and I'm 100% certain that there are others that don't want to give up gasoline. So, gas will be around for a long time to come.

I do sincerely hope that some of these alternatives to gas are successful and that the world is a better place because of them, but for now, I'm just not convinced that they've got it right. We've got to start somewhere though.

[Brock Samson]

  The expression is, Think Globally, Act Locally,..

[PocketThunder]

I still can't get passed the idea that the pursuit of these alternative propulsion systems is like trampling through an uncharted piece of the rain forest, stomping on all the previously undiscovered plants and insects, to save the last monkey known in the area.

The end doesn't necessarily Justify the means.

Yes, the end result is a vehicle that produces less pollution, but at what cost, in terms of pollution and energy consumption, does it take to create that vehicle?

There just seems to be a lot of information that says it takes a lot more energy, and creates a lot more - and nastier - pollution to create these cars.

For me the jury is still out.

If I could get a vehicle that pollutes my immediate neighbourhood less and saves me a buck or two in the short term, I'd be happy to call the whole pollution thing a wash - less emissions in my driveway cost more emissions at the factory = the same overall pollution factor. I'm not saying it IS that, I'm saying I'd be less inclined to dismiss the new propulsion systems if this were the case. If everyone made their own little piece of the world a cleaner place, then the whole world will benefit. Stop trying to fix the globe, just fix your immediate space.

All that said, I'm fairly certain that I'm not the only person thinking this way and I'm 100% certain that there are others that don't want to give up gasoline. So, gas will be around for a long time to come.

I do sincerely hope that some of these alternatives to gas are successful and that the world is a better place because of them, but for now, I'm just not convinced that they've got it right. We've got to start somewhere though.

I'm with you dc-f.   The Hydrogen doesnt just get pumped out of the ground and delivered to the filling station.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production

[suntech]

There are always radical enviremental freaks that think they have the answer on everything.
At least here in Norway, and i guess that goes for most of the world, most of them are young, urban people, that think that all travelling tasks can be solved by using train and buses etc. They have never had to own a car, since they live in the middle of a big city, so they have never faced the tasks that needs to be handled if you live on the country-side. Force them to move out to something they would call "middle of nowhere", and force them to use their solution of handling normal everyday tasks, like getting groceries, getting kids to school and different activities, in a place with no railway system, and 2 buses a day......... That would teach them a lesson!!!
These people seems to think that electricity also is something that you automatically get, when you plug in to the wall, and don't realize that it has to be made. They are of cause against nuclear plants, so we will need a few thousand Hoover Dams!!!! Then, when electricity prices are going trough the room, due to lack of it, they will be the first ones to bitch about it, because they are "enviremental friendly" and should not be penalized for that!!!
Here in Europe, we where inspired by our governments to buy diesel cars, with cat. and particle filters, to be enviremental friendly,and the next thing they do, when a big enough crowd has done so,  is to raise the price on............Diesel!!!
E 85 is supposed to be environmentally friendly, but it affects the corn prices!!!!
But........................ all this is about the things we do to handle what needs to be done on daily bases, and not really the hobby part of our lives IMO.
I do not think Nascar, World Rally Championchip, Formula 1 etc. will suffer from gas prices. Nor do i think the Classic cars will suffer from it. You might drive it a little less, if you used to drive it every day, but in most cases it is the #2 car anyway, so there is another, less thirsty car sitting beside it in the garage. There will always be people that loves classic cars, and i have a very hard time to believe that this stuff will affect their value in a negative way. 

[dodgecharger-fan]

  The expression is, Think Globally, Act Locally,..

That's it. However. I think that expression has caused a lot problems. Most people can't think globally. It's too abstract.

The message needs to be more concrete and to do that, it needs to address the local aspect directly. Never mind that it will help things in a global scale, just get them to focus on something that they can do locally and make it specific and concrete and the message will stick a whole lot better.

[dodgecharger-fan]

Suntech, if you drag them out in to the middle of nowhere, they'll find a lot less pollution than they are used to in the big city (where all the buses are) and start to wonder what all the fuss is about. You'll burst their big city bubble and crush their tree huggin hearts.
Whatever will they bitch and moan about then?   

[suntech]

Whatever will they bitch and moan about then?   

Hehe, i´ll bet good money that they would find something!!! maybe the sound of the neighbors tractor???

[suntech]

Something funny : Al Gore came to our town, in a PRIVATE JET, on his "save the world " trip. He insisted on having a hybrid car to drive him from the airpot to the place he had the speach!!!! 9 MILES that was . HMMMMMMMMMMM........travel the world in a private jet, then jump in a hybrid car for a 9 mile trip!!! That my friends........is enviremental friendly!!!!

[Mike DC]

         

The switch to alternative-propulsion vehicles makes sense only in terms of advance preparation for the coming shortages of cheap oil.

Just on their own merits, none of these new propulsion schemes really make economic (or even environmental) sense over the traditional gasoline-powered car.  They're all primarily just ways of juggling the damage around, and they're not truly reducing enough of it.     




As for the long-term gasoline cars issue? 

IMHO the supply and demand for gasoline powered cars isn't going anywhere for a long, long time.  It'll just get progressively more expensive to operate them until they're eventually relegated to car enthusiasts & the rich. 

IMHO the only thing we really have to worry about is legislation to artificially force the gasoline cars out of our reach.  (And this may eventually come to be a MAJOR threat.  Even Detroit will have an incentive to be against us once they're primarily investing in the newer methods.)

     

[WingCharger]

There are always radical enviremental freaks that think they have the answer on everything.
At least here in Norway, and i guess that goes for most of the world, most of them are young, urban people, that think that all travelling tasks can be solved by using train and buses etc. They have never had to own a car, since they live in the middle of a big city, so they have never faced the tasks that needs to be handled if you live on the country-side. Force them to move out to something they would call "middle of nowhere", and force them to use their solution of handling normal everyday tasks, like getting groceries, getting kids to school and different activities, in a place with no railway system, and 2 buses a day......... That would teach them a lesson!!!
These people seems to think that electricity also is something that you automatically get, when you plug in to the wall, and don't realize that it has to be made. They are of cause against nuclear plants, so we will need a few thousand Hoover Dams!!!! Then, when electricity prices are going trough the room, due to lack of it, they will be the first ones to bitch about it, because they are "enviremental friendly" and should not be penalized for that!!!
Here in Europe, we where inspired by our governments to buy diesel cars, with cat. and particle filters, to be enviremental friendly,and the next thing they do, when a big enough crowd has done so,  is to raise the price on............Diesel!!!
E 85 is supposed to be environmentally friendly, but it affects the corn prices!!!!
But........................ all this is about the things we do to handle what needs to be done on daily bases, and not really the hobby part of our lives IMO.
I do not think Nascar, World Rally Championchip, Formula 1 etc. will suffer from gas prices. Nor do i think the Classic cars will suffer from it. You might drive it a little less, if you used to drive it every day, but in most cases it is the #2 car anyway, so there is another, less thirsty car sitting beside it in the garage. There will always be people that loves classic cars, and i have a very hard time to believe that this stuff will affect their value in a negative way. 

I agree with most greenies being from the city. I live on a farm in a very rural area, and we cant work without a big dually diesel truck. Just getting to school, you need the diesel bus, and we live far enough we cant bike, and you cant get groceries on a scooter. The E85 thing is a sham. You cant let the farmers get rich. That has been repeated over and over. I may be 14, but I know shit that has confused guys my dad knows.
His friend from work is making biodiesel in a big tank he got from his job at the power plant. Everything is home made. My dad got a bunch of grease for free because he is on the county fair board, and is having him make some.

THERE IS NO DO-IT-ALL SOLUTION!!! They wont understand that!
$4.55 for a gallon of diesel is BULLSHIT!!!!

[aussiemuscle]

Dont' worry about gas too much. World will hit peak production in 30-50 years (no new oil wells) after that all runs out in 20 years after that, then they can move on to 'shale oil' which is the lower value oil. it costs more to extract petroleum out of it, so they haven't used it as yet. that will last another 100 years. The environment however can't sustain that (at current levels) but i think it was during the jurassic period carbon levels were 5 times higher than today (which is one reason such big lizards could exist, high carbon is good for plants, they grow much better. oxygen is a waste product for plants, it's poison to them).

We were told that all old cars would be forced out when they introducted unleaded fuel. that hasn't stopped us. If the amish can get around in horse-drawn carts then we can get around in old 70s cars. Muscle cars will probably end up like old 1920s cars today, being only 'club' registered for limited driving.

[Mike DC]

World will hit peak production in 30-50 years

Not to derail the thread, but 30-50 YEARS?  Opinions can differ but I think that's really pushing it. 

A ton of smart people think we're at peak oil right now. 
(And not just people who stand to profit from it.)



And not only that, have you ever read Matt Simmonds's book from 2004? (He's not exactly a greenie.)  He has made a pretty persuasive case that Saudi Arabia's stated oil reserves are massively overinflated. 

That's a potentially GIGANTIC monkeywrench.  For decades, not even the worst doom & gloom oil predictions have given thought to anything like this scenario.  Saudi Arabia's long-term reserves have always traditionally been that one huge towering column on all the charts.  For the least 40-50 years, the world's entire energy policy has been built around the idea that Saudi Arabia still has absolutely stupid amounts of fresh oil under the sand to pump. 

[68charger383]

Attrition will slowly make the big cars and SUVs start to become a rarity on the road in a few years if gas stays up around the $3 range. We'll see more small cars (like in Europe) on the road. Our cars will be even be more of a unique thing to see coming down the road.

I think the bigger problem will be in 20-40 years....when we start to kick the bucket....will the past and current generation of kids want these cars. 

[WingCharger]

I think the bigger problem will be in 20-40 years....when we start to kick the bucket....will the past and current generation of kids want these cars. 

I WILL!!!!

[dodgecharger-fan]

World will hit peak production in 30-50 years

Not to derail the thread, but 30-50 YEARS?  Opinions can differ but I think that's really pushing it. 

A ton of smart people think we're at peak oil right now. 
(And not just people who stand to profit from it.)



And not only that, have you ever read Matt Simmonds's book from 2004? (He's not exactly a greenie.)  He has made a pretty persuasive case that Saudi Arabia's stated oil reserves are massively overinflated. 

That's a potentially GIGANTIC monkeywrench.  For decades, not even the worst doom & gloom oil predictions have given thought to anything like this scenario.  Saudi Arabia's long-term reserves have always traditionally been that one huge towering column on all the charts.  For the least 40-50 years, the world's entire energy policy has been built around the idea that Saudi Arabia still has absolutely stupid amounts of fresh oil under the sand to pump. 

Not arguing against your point, but there's lots of information that contradicts that.
I think that's why this whole oil "crisis" is such a mess.

For the last 40-50 years, it would have been in Saudi Arabia's best interest to say they had the most oil in order to laud the highest amount of power.
Now, if you follow the supply-and-demand line of thinking to explain current high prices, they should be saying they don't have as much in order to allow the price to rise as it has.

So, which is it? (I'm not throwing this down at you Mike. I'm just asking as a way to provoke thought in anyone who reads this.)

One could argue that they're leaking the idea of lower than reported reserves in order to boost the price.
On could also argue that they continue to fib about their reserves, but someone has figured it out and the speculators are latching on to the idea and that's driving prices up.

On the other hand, there is information that oil deposits in the gulf of Mexico are producing far beyond their expected capacity and some that were thought to have been exhausted have been replenished and began producing again. If that were to continue, and more deposits were found to be doing the same, the world's energy policy wouldn't need to rely so heavily on what the Saudi's say they have or don't have.

68charger383 has a great point and if nothing else, if people started conserving, they save themselves a few bucks. If they pollute less, their neighbourhood will be that much nicer and maybe they'll be happier and nicer.  At the same time, this whole oil crisis mess will kick start the push toward alternative energy. In the end that will serve a single purpose for the most part: reduce our dependency on foreign oil (even if that dependency is suspect). Even if it's at the cost of the environment in developing these new alternatives, reducing that dependency is a good thing.

Now, I'm going to pick up my 71 New Yorker with a 440-4 in it. 
What? It's very well tuned!

[jmanscharger]

Three words. Steam and Gas, old guys still buy the steam engines and tractors, prices are high. But when this age of video playing youth gets old I see that market losing steam. Some of these young guys will be doing resto ricers...old cars are still popular for quite some time unless hydrogen or electric have some real horsepower breakthroughs. If so charger hemi hydrogen anyone?

[WingCharger]

Three words. Steam and Gas, old guys still buy the steam engines and tractors, prices are high. But when this age of video playing youth gets old I see that market losing steam. Some of these young guys will be doing resto ricers...old cars are still popular for quite some time unless hydrogen or electric have some real horsepower breakthroughs. If so charger hemi hydrogen anyone?

I like old steam tractors! I have a a 1953 farmall Super C tractor, but its not steam. I am restoring it.

[jmanscharger]

I have cosmetically restored my dad's orginal 1952 Minneapolis Moline Z. My kids like to ride but as generations pass, my nephews don't even want to learn to drive it. My Chargers interest them however.

[nakita7]

I personally have been wanting an electric car since I was a kid, and now at 41, I might be able to buy one in the next couple years. Electric vehicles have been around for 100 years, but are not quite practical yet. That should change, and could have changed by now, but the answer is real simple...oil companies can't make millions off of electricity. That might change as utility companies merge worldwide, so this could go 2 different ways:

- The demand for electric cars will go up. Supply=demand. So the price of electricity will go up, gas will go down (less demand) or..

- The demand for electric cars will not be there, and gas prices will continue to go up as per usual.

I hope it kinda goes the number 2 scenario, where I can still buy an electric car, and the rest of the world can keep running gas (it's like the Mac computer, we love our 'best kept secret!). I will always love Mopars, but for a driver, I will have to use something else, and the idea of have Mopars just sitting there, being used once in a blue moon, paying insurance etc is not smart to me. I always go with common sense, which I realize is not popular these days, so it's a tough call as to how this will play out...

[Mike DC]

For the last 40-50 years, it would have been in Saudi Arabia's best interest to say they had the most oil in order to laud the highest amount of power.
Now, if you follow the supply-and-demand line of thinking to explain current high prices, they should be saying they don't have as much in order to allow the price to rise as it has.

So, which is it? (I'm not throwing this down at you Mike. I'm just asking as a way to provoke thought in anyone who reads this.)

One could argue that they're leaking the idea of lower than reported reserves in order to boost the price.
On could also argue that they continue to fib about their reserves, but someone has figured it out and the speculators are latching on to the idea and that's driving prices up.

Yeah, I've considered that issue too.  It's certainly a valid thing to take into account.


But the way Simmonds came to his viewpoint was just too difficult to have been anything intentional on the part of the Saudis.  Too much of the info was drawn from stuff published literally decades ago.  And the trail of thinking was WAY too convoluted for the Saudis to have expected anyone to draw that conclusion any time soon.

Simmonds basically went through hundreds of technical papers that the Saudi engineers have published to peers over the years (about refinements in drilling and exploration techniques).  He drew his conclusion based on the lengths they were going to in order to explore new areas and to keep the fields producing as they are right now.  Half the time he was having to reverse-engineer which field they were talking about in which paper, because it was usually not being specified in the paper for secrecy reasons.  Stuff like that. 


The whole thing basically reads like this:  Decades ago, the Saudis probably looked at the untapped areas in their country and made a guess about the oil reserves.  They looked at where the geology exactly matched the existing huge oilfields, and made (an understandable) assumption that the new areas would probably contain at least some decent amounts of oil too. 

But unfortunately it's not bearing out that way at all.  The geology is identical, and the modern exploration has been getting pretty significant, but the huge oil pockets just aren't being found. 

The only decent sized unexplored areas left in that country are the areas right near the Iraq border and the farthest-out areas that are hardest to transport.