Soft market?

[Headrope]

I blame Barrett Jackson for the current market adjustment. Overzealous bidders and eager sellers drove prices well above market value. It's the same thing that happened with the housing market and the house flipping craze.

Add to that the price of fuel. It is very expensive. Here in Washington we pay, last I checked, 21 cents per gallon in taxes on top of the higher than it used to be price. It has become difficult to justify spending so much on fuel for toys. In turn, it has become more difficult to justify spending money on parts, etc. for something that is spending more and more time parked in the garage.

[Mike DC]

I disagree about fuel prices having any effect right now. 

Not when the engine companies are selling 500-inch stroker kits as fast as they can build them, and everyone refers to 93-octane setups as "cheap pump-gas motors" when it would take no more work to build everything for 87-octane. 


Fuel prices are definitely taking a bite out of domestic truck/SUV sales, and they're probably increasing the sales of diesel-motor trucks. 
But I don't think they're even touching the sales of old classic cars yet.

 

[Ghoste]

I agree mostly.  Fuel prices affect daily drivers more than toys and the stuff at the very top of the classic car food chain doesn't get driven often these days anyway.  I do think rising energy costs have an intangible impact in the way they affect the overall economy and public perception of whether it's good or bad though.

[Mike DC]

and the stuff at the very top of the classic car food chain doesn't get driven often these days anyway

IMHO even most of the medium-condition cars don't get driven enough to be bothered much by it. 

Everyone swears they really drive their cars, but I never see them out there.  I go to local shows, and I see average-condition 383/auto cars wearing brand-new-looking BFG radials with tread patterns that they stopped making 15 years ago.

[dkn1997]

I disagree about fuel prices having any effect right now. 

Not when the engine companies are selling 500-inch stroker kits as fast as they can build them, and everyone refers to 93-octane setups as "cheap pump-gas motors" when it would take no more work to build everything for 87-octane. 


Fuel prices are definitely taking a bite out of domestic truck/SUV sales, and they're probably increasing the sales of diesel-motor trucks. 
But I don't think they're even touching the sales of old classic cars yet.

 

I mix 1/2 super and 1/2 100 octane racegas (at 6 bucks a gallon) and drive a big block getting what?  9?  10mpg?  Although I am more concious of the mileage than before I drove the car a lot and before the price of gas went up, still does not stop me from driving it. It certianly would not make me reconsider a "hobby" car purchase or even get me to pick a small block over a big block. 

dailiy driver cars are the ones that would feel the bite of high priced gas and if you are driving one of our old mopars daily, you have got way more to worry about than putting fuel in it. 

[Ghoste]

You know Mike, you're right.  My car is at the bottom of the chain and I only drive it once or twice a week.  When it gets close to empty I just put the 50 or 60 bucks in it and the most I think about the decision is to maybe be glad it isn't a boat.  Unless the prices went way way up, I'm still going to roll my thousand or two a year on.

[Supercharged Riot]

I think the market will just depend on where buyers & sellers will meet half-way on the actual market price.  If people are really wanting to sell & buyers arewilling to accept the price. then you have market value.

THis goes for everything else.  Houses for example.  I hated it when the smart-asses said that houses will never loose value.  Look at what just happened recently.  COmpanies are cutting prices because no one is buying.  I knew the market would reach a crashing point because sellers were getting too ambitious (greedy) and think their stuff is always appreciating and buyers wil never see a lower price again

We all heard it before. you need 2 things to make a true market value: Seller & a buyer (thats wiling to take the selling price)

[Mike DC]

 
Yeah, I agree that's the deal. 



IMHO it really boils down to a question of whether everyone is paying XXX dollars for something because they're personally willing to fork over that much to get it.  If the value is "real," then they would be willing to spend that much on the item even if they could never resell it. 

The price-inflation comes when the mindset starts to become "Well, I couldn't justify paying this much for it if I was never gonna sell it again, but it will go up in the future so that justifies paying this much for it right now."   It's not a big deal when this thinking kicks in on an individual person basis from time to time.  But once this motivation becomes the prevailing attitude that justifies climbing prices throughout the whole market, then the item is inflated.

 

[68charger383]

We all heard it before. you need 2 things to make a true market value: Seller & a buyer (thats wiling to take the selling price)

I'd agree in general, but for houses and these cars i'd say three...someone willing to loan you the money!

[70charger_boy]

   It is soft
http://motors.search-completed.ebay.com/1970-charger_Cars-Trucks_W0QQ_trksidZm37QQcatrefZC12QQfclZ3QQfisZ2QQfromZR10QQfrppZ50QQfsooZ2QQfsopZ1QQfssZ0QQmppfqyZmagnumQ20wheelsQQmppfqyZmagnumQ20wheelsQQmppfqyZmagnumQ20wheelsQ2017QQmppfqyZtorinoQ20rimQQmppfqyZmoparQ20steeringQ20wheelQQmppfqyZmoparQ20steeringQ20wheelQ20aQ20bodyQQsaaffZafdefaultQQsabfmtsZ1QQsacatZ6001QQsacurZ0QQsaobfmtsZinsifQQsaslopZ1QQsorefinesearchZ1
http://motors.search-completed.ebay.com/search/search.dll?sofocus=bs&sbrftog=1&catref=C12&saaff=afdefault&sacur=0&sorefinesearch=1&fcl=3&frpp=50&from=R10&saslop=1&fss=0&mppfqy=magnum+wheels&mppfqy=magnum+wheels&mppfqy=magnum+wheels+17&mppfqy=torino+rim&mppfqy=mopar+steering+wheel&mppfqy=mopar+steering+wheel+a+body&_trksid=m37&satitle=1969+charger&sacat=6001%26catref%3DC6&a39=-24&a38v1y=&a38v2y=&a10239=-24&a39705=-24&a10244=-24&alist=a39%2Ca41%2Ca38v1y%2Ca38v2y%2Ca10239%2Ca3801%2Ca85%2Ca10246%2Ca33512%2Ca10241%2Ca10244%2Ca39705&pfmode=1&reqtype=1&gcs=13&pfid=2473&pf_query=1969+charger&sargn=-1%26saslc%3D2&sadis=200&fpos=02886&sabfmts=1&saobfmts=insif&fis=2&ftrt=1&ftrv=1&saprclo=&saprchi=&sadis1=100&fpos1=02886&lsot1=&fsop=1%26fsoo%3D2&sadis2=100&fpos2=02886&lsot2=
http://motors.search-completed.ebay.com/search/search.dll?sofocus=bs&sbrftog=1&catref=C6&saaff=afdefault&sacur=0&sorefinesearch=1&fcl=3&frpp=50&from=R10&saslop=1&fss=0&mppfqy=magnum+wheels&mppfqy=magnum+wheels&mppfqy=magnum+wheels+17&mppfqy=torino+rim&mppfqy=mopar+steering+wheel&mppfqy=mopar+steering+wheel+a+body&_trksid=m37&satitle=1968+charger&sacat=6001%26catref%3DC6&a39=-24&a38v1y=&a38v2y=&a10239=-24&a39705=-24&a10244=-24&alist=a39%2Ca41%2Ca38v1y%2Ca38v2y%2Ca10239%2Ca3801%2Ca85%2Ca10246%2Ca33512%2Ca10241%2Ca10244%2Ca39705&pfmode=1&reqtype=1&gcs=13&pfid=2473&pf_query=1968+charger&sargn=-1%26saslc%3D2&sadis=200&fpos=02886&sabfmts=1&saobfmts=insif&fis=2&ftrt=1&ftrv=1&saprclo=&saprchi=&sadis1=100&fpos1=02886&lsot1=&fsop=1%26fsoo%3D2&sadis2=100&fpos2=02886&lsot2=

[remta1]

Is it a timing issue ? some really good points on here  , exactly the same thing is happening here in New Zealand everyone wants something for nothing we all want to pay as little as possible when we buy and want as much as possible when we sell .
These cars are irreplaceable and i just think that if we ride it out it will come back into line .Its impossible to put a price on the fun and pleasure that these toys / investments bring you  . Look at the music , clothing industry etc it sort of comes full circle .


Man turn that key and all the bullshit in the world dissapears for a while ( our house motto is "dead tomorrow doin it today" ) just get out there and do it while you can   

[70charger_boy]

Is it a timing issue ? some really good points on here  , exactly the same thing is happening here in New Zealand everyone wants something for nothing we all want to pay as little as possible when we buy and want as much as possible when we sell .
These cars are irreplaceable and i just think that if we ride it out it will come back into line .Its impossible to put a price on the fun and pleasure that these toys / investments bring you  . Look at the music , clothing industry etc it sort of comes full circle .


Man turn that key and all the bullshit in the world dissapears for a while ( our house motto is "dead tomorrow doin it today" ) just get out there and do it while you can   

I agree 1,000%

[694spdRT]

I think the market is slowing some. After such a fast rise a pullback really shouldn't be suprising. Nothing ever keeps going up and up...not even Google.

I hang around with a lot of my dad's friend's who are in the 50-70 age bracket. What I have seen them do in the last 5 years or so of car cruising was to buy some old car so they can have fun with the group. After they have had it for a while little gremlins start showing up and most have wound up broke down somewhere. A lot of these guys don't like or don't want to work on their cars and their wives don't really like anything about the car either. So, they take it to a mechanic and have the little gremlin fixed and the mechanic finds of few more things wrong that should be fixed. Once it is fixed they can drive it again except when its too hot, or if the weather is bad, or if they are going a long way from home.  So then they think...why not buy something newer like a Trans Am, Mustang, Vette, or whatever and not have to worry about anything.  Now they are driving the newer car more and the old car less. They really don't need to sell the old car but don't really like using it much either. Just what I am starting to see around here.

[Ghoste]

And so the bloom falls from the nostalgia rose.

[70charger_boy]

The market is so bad, I had a guy ask me if I wanted to trade him my '66 Tempest for a vintage Gibson Guitar.  True story

[Todd Wilson]

Everything seems to have a rocket ride and eventually comes back down. Corvettes did it many years ago. Its a different time now and different cars are in the light.  The economy is not doing well even though we hear its the best since this time and that time.  Stuff is slow in Kansas.  Gas prices may not effect the driving of the old classic cars  it does effect other things. People pay for the gas and not do other things.

It is a bad time of year to sell also. Weather is getting cold and the up coming holidays are gonna cause extra amounts of cash to be spent. Some of us have already put the Chargers up for winter.

I dont think the home buying forclosure stuff has much to do with the classic car buying. Real banks making real home loans are doing just fine. Its all the other fly by night loan outfits loaning money to people to buy a house way more then they can afford thats in the trouble, These people buy 3 times the house they can afford with their income and then they lose a job or try and sell later only to have markets drop and then they are screwed. Not much left to do but stop making the payment and let forclosure start. As for equity loans to buy classics I am sure thats been done some but most people dont have enough equity in a house to go buy a classic car. Myself as an example I have lived in my house 10 years now. Price of what I paid and what its worth now is about 16grand higher. Not a bad gain but certainly not enough to go buy a classic car thats in decent shape with an equity loan. And why run a risk of losing the house if something happens and you cant make BOTH payments.  Once again its people buying a house they cant afford and a classic they cant afford. So I guess looking back on what I jsut typed maybe the house for closures are having an effect on classic buying because now responsible people are the only ones left who can buy and there arent as many of them out there.

Honestly I can say that if I had not bought my 71 20 years ago  and my 69 6 years ago before the prices got stupid I would probably not have a Charger right now because I simply could not afford to buy one.



Todd

[Lord Warlock]

Its kind of funny to hear folks talking about a rocket ride in valuations on these cars, while i'll agree they've appreciated, they've taken a long long long time to reach the current levels.  Nice RTs have had values of 30k+ since the late 80s, and we are still hovering around the same levels, although some are now getting as high as 50.  hemi's of course were over 100k 15 years ago. 

I don't know anyone thats mortgaged their house to buy their car toys, its definitely a possibility though, I've been in my house for 16 years now, and its gone from 103k to 240k (not counting the added detached 2 car garage out back) when we did the renovation last year it would have been worth 275 but the readjustment in the market has knocked about 30k off the top right now  I'm not worried though, in 3 years the current market will recover and it will go back up.  (I work for a mortgage co, and they aren't particularly worried unless heavily leveraged in subprime markets, which were hurt hard...but then again the lenders needed a reality check, they'd gotten too loose in lending to folks that should never have qualified for what they closed on.) 

I suppose those of you that got the cars in the last 5 years may think the market as being soft, but its strong enough to walk away with a huge profit to those of us that have had the cars for 20 years.  I think a 30k value on a car i paid 800.00 for is a decent return.   If I ever seriously considered selling the car, which i won't.  I've had it 30 years now, and i expect the charger to be around for another 20 at least.  It'd be nice to see the big block factory rtse cars double in value over the next 20 years. 

[6670charger]

There are a lot of different reasons for all this.  I'm not sure that prices are coming down so much as people just aren't buying as readily as they were a few years ago.  The housing market reflects the market in general, and right now things are very uncertain.  Add to that the fact that most people don't have the kind of discretiionary money to buy many of these overpriced collector cars.  Yes, they are overpriced.  The inflated values are great for those who buy to flip, or for someone who bought a car ten years ago and can now sell it for three times what they paid.  It's not so great for the average guy who wants to have his dream 69 Charger, and has come to realize he'll never have it because they just cost too much.

I think a lot of the high prices are coming from people who are siimply trying to capitalize on the high values of these cars.  I think many are in for a rude awakening, in that after having spent $30K on a car they now want to sell for $37K, they aren't going to get their money.  They may be lucky to break even right now.  Values of cars, like anything else are subject to the rules of gravity........what goes up must eventually come down.  I think they''ve spiked to the point where very soon prices will begin to drop out of necessity.

I can't say or even agree that parts are getting cheaper....especially in the repop market.  Used parts are about the only ones you can find for a decent price depending upon what car you have and what you're buying.  $200+ for repop trim pieces, and $600 for a 66-67 Charger taillight lens is in no way cheap.  I recently saw a restored 66-67 Charger trunk medalllion assembly sell on Ebay for something like $1300.  Same thing for the 69 Charger grille that was posted in another thread that is for sale for $900;  It's insanity.   I realize that it costs money to make these things, but I seriously doubt it costs so much that these parts need to be priced the way they are.  that's business I guess. 

I know there are a lot of guys who hate it when someone buys a fully restored car and did none of the work on it themselves.  Problem is, parts are so expensive that it's just plain cheaper in most cases to buy a completed car.  I've spent around $30K restoring my 66 Charger over the years.  I doubt I could sell the car today for much over $16K   On one hand, I've learned a lot in the process that I'd never trade for anything.   One of the things I've learned is to never try and restore a parts car ever again.   It may be fun, but unless you have the time, money, resouces and ability to do everything yourself, it just isn't worth it.  The only one of the four I have is the ability, and that's severely limited.

Eric

[Lord Warlock]

Actually, in the cases of muscle cars, prices may go up, and make occasional adjustments downward, they very rarely drop to any major degree.  Our cars are priced no more than a new daily driver car, and in our case, the cars won't depreciate, no matter how many miles you put on it.  (within reason)  We all thought that when the Japanese got into the investment level of muscle cars in the mid to late 80s and the prices of the hard core elite cars like six pack challengers and chargers, AARs and TAs, as well as GTO convertibles, LS6 chevvies, etc all went over 100k for the first times, that the true muscle cars were going to be forever out of reach of the normal type person with real jobs, that can't afford to spend 50k on a car, but all it did was make the lesser cars such as r/t's as well as non R/T cars increase in value after the rare ones were all taken. 

Yes, it is very easy to spend 30k or more restoring a car yourself, the only benefit is that you can do it slow and in a piece meal fashion, compared to someone that pays someone else to do it for them.  I don't have anything against someone who buys really clean or restored examples already finished, they pay for it with real cash just like anyone else, and they help raise the bar on the upper valuation curve of our cars.  Not everyone wants to be a mechanic and work on cars all the time, some want to just enjoy the feel and fun of owning one of the rarer cars of the era.  Unlike those people though, there are many like me who feel that they should do everything within their power to do as much of the rebuild as they can themselves, including body work and paint. ( I'll still pay an interior shop to install the seat covers though, i want them to look nice and tight, and not a wrinkled mess like me)

It isn't insane for parts of our cars to cost 1000 or more for a nice used part, keep in mind that probably 80% of the cars made were crushed throughout the 70s, 80s and 90s, the parts that are hard to find cost a little extra, they still don't come close to what kids today spend on a single modification to an import performance coupe.  While people who got into the hobby recently (within the last 10 years or so) may think the prices are rediculous, those of us that have held on to the cars for 30 years don't feel the same way.  We also are happy to see the big block cars receive the attention they are due today, and bring respectable prices.  I'll keep my RTSE for another 20 years easy, can't say the same about the stealth twin turbo (owned since 93) or the 2004 svt cobra.  The cobra may equal the collectability of the muscle cars, but the stealth probably won't.  (although i think they will start to appreciate soon...within the next 5 years) they are currently near the bottom of the depreciation curve right now.    People spend 15k on a crate motor these days...back in our days we would spend maybe 300 for a replacement motor, or 1000 for a new remanufactured motor, over time everything got more expensive, gas, girls, cars, milk, tobacco etc etc.  What cost 25 cents when i was 10 now costs 3.50 or more per pack. 

If you don't like the cars rising in value and getting out of reach of the common man, find a cheaper version instead and be happy with a normal charger with a smallblock, and build up your own pseudo RT. 

[68charger383]

Well you would be the people to ask....

What would a nice 8-9 out of 10 car go for ballpark...not to sell your car, but the amount you would be willing to pay or expect the selling price to be for a car:

If you need more info say a 5 year old restoration with nice paint with a scratch here and there, nice interior, auto and a motor with 5-10K on it. Needs some freshing up.

440 R/T
383 4 bbl
383 2 bbl
318

if the years would make a difference then value by year.

My guesstimate would be using a $5K price range.
R/T          $29K-$34K
383 4bbl   $17K-22K
383 2 bbl  $15K-$20K
318          $13K-$18K

This time last year I would have said the prices were about 25% higher.

[bzabodyn]

Just like with the housing market - it's the "flippers" that are to blame... anytime someone sees an opportunity to make a quick buck they do it - and with the Charger market over the last few years up until now, there were lots of opportunities to make big $$$...

...I'm looking at my hemi charger like it's my kid's college fund (the only way I can justify spending the money I'm about to spend on it - and please don't mention anything about taking out 2nd mortgages  )... regardless of where the market is 18 years from now, I know it's going to be WAY above where it is now, because just like "dirt" they aren't making anymore matching #'s '69 hemi charger 4spds....

BZ

[Mike DC]

 
At the risk of derailing the thread, the US dollar's inflation is getting severe enough to affect this issue lately. 

It's not like it takes a decade for an inflation change to be significant.  Once you include the compounding effects of a small yearly loss, then suddenly the same dollar-number can be worth 10-20% less just within the 2-4 years that it takes to restore a car.  (And some of the darker-cloud economists would say those numbers are even worse lately.)

[Lord Warlock]

Realistically you can't really treat a car like a kids college fund.  You KNOW you aren't likely to sell it for even that.  I'll use the mortgage before i use my charger.  My charger predated my wife, and i started dating her when she was 15.  Kids aren't really interested in cars so they can't have it...  I prepaid college when the kids were 6 though, so it shouldn't be that big an expense for the uncovered parts.  Yes those hemi chargers are rolling gold mines, sighhhhh, i so regret passing up on the hemi challenger convertible for 1000.00 (new hemi, body was maybe a 5 out of 10), or the complete but disassembled hemi at a shop that was closing, (600...but i had a minor fender bender in the parents car the day before so couldn't cover it) but this was in the mid 80s, things were cheaper then. 

When owners think they see a slump, they are misreading the signs, now, while the cars are in the middle of an adjustment trough, is the time to buy the cars you want, not worry about why they are a little cheaper now.  If you have a 318, and can swing it get a decent r/t instead.  The prices will keep going up, especially for cars that may be uncommon, or limited in production.  I fully expect my survivor car, when its 90% done to what i want, will be worth over 60k one day.  (not there yet, slowly taking shape though) but it may take 20 years before then, either way the wife can sell it when i'm dead, its an insurance policy she never nagged me to get. 

With higher gas prices, cell phones, cable etc, it all eats away at pleasure budgets, and while there is a risk in the economy which many would claim recession, we've had next to no inflation for a decade, and we still enjoy mortgage rates at pre 1965 levels when compared to what they got to in the 80s, 17% mortgages were standard then, high inflation sucks.  Our stock market, while hopping around a bit lately still is at record levels when compared to even 4 years ago, salaries seem to be low, but new grads can make more than i can after 20 years (with my own degree) and afford cars and toys more than i can, i'm not going to complain about the economy.  Bankers got greedy with mortgages, and this shakeup is a much needed slap to the head and shake of the tree to get rid of deadwood and worms.  People will always need houses, and will always need a way to pay for them, so the mortgage industry is going to just have to adjust a little bit. 

[Mike DC]

I agree with most of that. 

The mortgage smashup was a predictable result of overinflated values and irresponsible (even predatory in some cases) lending during the last several years.  The whole thing created some extra spending money at first, and now that extra (artificial) wealth has vanished.  But it's not a major net loss in the values of these cars overall, just a short term roller-coaster ride.

I still stand by my little inflation soapbox though.  A lot of people think the official numbers have been artifically low for years.  We're so quick to believe that everything has gotten more expensive but so slow to believe that maybe our dollars are just buying less than before.

----------------------------------------------------------


These cars are mostly just tied to the cost of replacing them.  The matching-numbers cars are another category, but most of the hobby just wants an operational vintage car.  They'll buy used if they can find it, but they'll buy reproduction things (parts, motors, whole unibodies, or whatever) without reservation as soon as the repro stuff gains enough quality to function like the old stuff. 

People are paying $30K for "old" cars because it's still a reasonable amount of money for a whole RWD V8 sports car in decent shape.  It sounds like a lot (and it would be, if these old cars were being made in millions per year).  But these days Detriot still won't deliver an equivalent modern car for any less.  When you can't buy a similiar car for less and you can't build a similiar car for less either, then that's what it's worth. 

Buying a whole car is getting much cheaper than a resto.  But for all the commentary about it, I don't think this is so very drastically different from the situation that has always existed.   We just like to tell ourselves that it used to be a lot different.  Mankind has a particular fetish for paying a little at a time even though it will ultimately add up to much more in total.  (Ask anyone who's ever worked in any financial industry!)

[y3chargerrt]

I know the market is soft. What would this GTX had gotten at auction a year or two ago?This is a magazine car and 1 of 62!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Plymouth-GTX-1-of-62-1971-Plymouth-GTX-440-6-4-Speed-Dayna_W0QQitemZ180177125013QQihZ008QQcategoryZ6412QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem