Looks like I was right

[Mytur Binsdirti]

As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........



Instead Of 'Flattening The Curve,' We Flattened Hospitals, Doctors, And The U.S. Health Care System

Across the country, hospitals shut down 'non-essential' procedures in preparation for a surge of coronavirus patients that never appeared.

John Daniel DavidsonBy John Daniel Davidson
APRIL 23, 2020


When the lockdowns began last month, we were told that if we didn't stay home our hospitals would be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, intensive care wards would be overrun, there wouldn't be enough ventilators, and some people would probably die in their homes for lack of care. To maintain capacity in the health-care system, we all had to go on lockdown—not just the big cities, but everywhere.

So we stayed home, businesses closed, and tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs. But with the exception of New York City, the overwhelming surge of coronavirus patients never really appeared—at least not in the predicted numbers, which have been off by hundreds of thousands.

During a press conference Wednesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis noted that health experts initially projected 465,000 Floridians would be hospitalized because of coronavirus by April 24. But as of April 22, the number is slightly more than 2,000.

Even in New York, where Gov. Andrew Cuomo said last month he would need 30,000 ventilators, hospitals never came close to needing that many. The projected peak need was about 5,000, and actual usage may have been even lower.

Other overflow measures have also proven unnecessary. On Tuesday, President Trump said the USNS Comfort, the Navy hospital ship that had been deployed to New York to provide emergency care for coronavirus patients, will be leaving the city. The ship had been prepared to treat 500 patients. As of Friday, only 71 beds were occupied. An Army field hospital set up in Seattle's pro football stadium shut down earlier this month without ever having seen a single patient.

It's the same story in much of the country. In Texas, where this week Gov. Greg Abbott began gradually loosening lockdown measures, including a prohibition on most medical procedures, hospitals aren't overwhelmed. In Dallas and Houston, where coronavirus cases are concentrated in the state, makeshift overflow centers that had been under construction might not be used at all.

In Illinois, where hospitals across the state scrambled to stock up on ventilators last month, fewer than half of them have been put to use—and as of Sunday, only 757 of 1,345 ventilators were being used by COVID-19 patients. In Virginia, only about 22 percent of the ventilator supply is being used.

Meanwhile, hospitals and health care systems nationwide have had to furlough or lay off thousands of employees. Why? Because the vast majority of most hospitals' revenue comes from elective or "non-essential" procedures. We're not talking about LASIK eye surgery but things like coronary angioplasty and stents, procedures that are necessary but maybe not emergencies—yet. If hospitals can't perform these procedures because governors have banned them, then they can't pay their bills, or their employees.

To take just one example, a friend who works in a cardiac intensive care unit (ICU) in rural Virginia called recently and told me about how they had reorganized their entire system around caring for coronavirus patients. They had cancelled most "non-essential" procedures, imposed furloughs and pay cuts, and created a special ICU ward for patients with COVID-19. So far, they have had only one patient. One. The nurses assigned to the COVID-19 ward have very little to do. In the entire area covered by this hospital system, only about 30 people have tested positive for COVID-19.

If Hospitals Can Handle The Load, End The Lockdowns
I'm sure the governors and health officials who ordered these lockdowns meant well. They based their decisions on deeply flawed and woefully inaccurate models, and they should have been less panicky and more skeptical, but they were facing a completely new disease about which, thanks to China, they had almost no reliable information.

However, in hindsight it seems clear that treating the entire country as if it were New York City was a huge mistake that has cost millions of American jobs and destroyed untold amounts of wealth. Now that we know our hospitals aren't going to be overrun by COVID-19 cases, governors and mayors should immediately reverse course and begin opening their states and communities for business.

Of course, some already are—and in a phased, cautious manner, as they should. But the overarching narrative that we all bought into, that unless we stayed home and "flattened the curve" our hospitals would be inundated, and if your kids got sick there would be no beds available to treat them, has turned out to be false. It hasn't happened, and it most likely won't happen, especially now that new evidence is emerging that suggests many more people have already contracted COVID-19 than previously thought, which means the disease might be far less lethal than we feared.

Public officials responsible for the lockdowns will no doubt claim that without these draconian measures, our hospitals surely would have been overwhelmed. And who knows? Maybe they would have. It's an unfalsifiable assertion.

But at this point we should all be able to agree that the predictions were way off, and not just because they didn't take into account stay-at-home orders or business closures, because they did. The experts, in this case, were wrong. The best thing governors and mayors can do now is admit as much, and start lifting their lockdown orders so people—including doctors and nurses—can get back to work.

[Mike DC]

Looks like I was right

Which time are you referring to?  

Weren't you originally scoffing at the idea that Covid would even kill a few thousand Americans (without any lockdown at all)?    


You were right about the media overestimating the virus threat.  But IMO that's to be expected.  The media's entire business model is to overstate threats.  


IMO big take-away lesson from all this is that we need better data at every step of the way.  This outbreak is 4+ months old and we still don't even know how widespread it is, not even close.  We're still figuring out about previous infection giving immunity.  We're still wild on the mortality rate.  We still don't know why some places are getting walloped hard and others aren't.  Until a couple weeks ago we didn't even know that it spread through breathed air.  Etc.  

Were the predictions off?  Yeah.  That's what happens when the data starts off shite and remains shite for months.  

[JB400]

Might still have to use them if things are opened up too early, and a second wave hits.  Better to have them and not need them than not have them and wish you did

[Mike DC]

Might still have to use them if things are opened up too early, and a second wave hits.

Hard to know.  

The current 'wave' has definitely turned out much lighter than predicted a month ago.    

But the first wave of the virus coming from China (that hit Cali over the winter) appears to have been lighter than the second wave (that hit NYC this spring).  It's not unusual for viruses.  


It's all a mess.  We still don't even have decent death totals.  A few weeks ago thousands of people were dying of flu symptoms and being buried without ever getting tested for Covid.  More recently they have been keeping track of everyone who dies with the virus no matter the actual COD.  (That is due to hazmat issues.  Covid-infected bodies are handled & stored differently from regular ones.)  

[John_Kunkel]

As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........

According to you and the author of that article. Ever search for an alternate opinion before patting yourself on the back?

[Kern Dog]

The OP was right. So was I.  The government used a nuclear bomb to kill three flies instead of using a flyswatter.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Looks like I was right

Weren't you originally scoffing at the idea that Covid would even kill a few thousand Americans (without any lockdown at all)?    

Not me. I have been consistent with my thought process in thinking that the corona-cooties would kill, but I believe that I never stated how many.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........

According to you and the author of that article. Ever search for an alternate opinion before patting yourself on the back?

Ummm, compared to the MSM, that is an alternative opinion. How about telling us what you think is wrongly stated in that article instead of just crowing about the article itself?

[XH29N0G]

There is a National Academies presentation on now that may be of interest.  It will be archived.  It promises good information https://nam.edu/coronavirus-resources/

[Mike DC]

   

Not me. I have been consistent with my thought process in thinking that the corona-cooties would kill, but I believe that I never stated how many.

Okay, maybe I'm wrong. 

How about telling us what you think is wrongly stated in that article instead of just crowing about the article itself?

Commenting generally . . .

We can end the lockdown but it won't restore the economy to how it was.  That won't really happen until the virus is cleared/treated/vaccinated.  The govt-imposed lockdown is only part of the problem.  

The lockdown doesn't need to be hurting so many people economically, either.  Many other countries have been able to freeze rents, fund temporary paychecks, prevent the massive unemployment, etc.  We should not have to choose between controlling the virus outbreak and economically surviving.  


The US govt has chosen to support the corporate state through this crisis and do nothing for the public.  It's that simple.  And I don't mean just Donald Trump, this is all of congress too.  
       

[odcics2]

After reading a TON of material, and making a guess....

I think there are about FIVE MILLION cases in the US.  (at least, could be way more... who knows??)

MOST never know they have it. Then, MOST that get it, have mild symptom - no hospital required, hell, not even tested for it!

THEN we get to what's out there on the daily counts.....  Case totals and how many died from the last tally. 

[Mytur Binsdirti]

After reading a TON of material, and making a guess....

I think there are about FIVE MILLION cases in the US.  (at least, could be way more... who knows??)

MOST never know they have it. Then, MOST that get it, have mild symptom - no hospital required, hell, not even tested for it!

THEN we get to what's out there on the daily counts.....  Case totals and how many died from the last tally.  

It would be interesting to test everyone for the flu & see how many are carriers and who had it unknowingly. Of course it won't be done, but I'd bet the numbers would be staggering.


And yet, the top 10 leading causes of death in the US never get talked about.

https://www.mdlinx.com/internal-medicine/article/6280


I'm not downplaying the Kung Flu, I'm just putting it in perspective.

[alfaitalia]

Does it really matter who was right?..53000 dead American citizens (and still climbing fast...over 3000 in the last 24 hours with still a way to go) is still a tragedy....they were all someone's father, mother, son, daughter....etc etc.

[XH29N0G]

That national academies presentation was really interesting and gave a different picture than the one presented by the OP.  

I encourage you to look at it.  It is also no youtube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=wQaK2JS0Kc4&feature=emb_logo

It has measured statements and describes the state of knowledge and what those who are working with the issues are thinking.

They discuss the background, the present, and the reopening.  I certainly hope all has passed and when it reopens nothing is there to happen, but the expectation is that the reopening is necessary just because it will infect more people, but at a slower rate, and one where the critical cases can be addressed.

[XH29N0G]

The current 'wave' has definitely turned out much lighter than predicted a month ago.    

Not so sure it is much lighter than predicted a month ago.  Outcomes are within uncertainty of IHME predictions even without the refinements. 

what we know is we are going to open up.  We think it is highly likely we will have a rise with this open up, but as always it is possible all could have gone away.  The issue is how big is the rise and what is the most prudent way to proceed.  Some people make assumptions that are very likely incorrect.

Right now we have a baiting/trolling going on and it is with intent to stir the pot. 

[stripedelete]

You can't prove a negative.

[ACUDANUT]

Does it really matter who was right?..53000 dead American citizens (and still climbing fast...over 3000 in the last 24 hours with still a way to go) is still a tragedy....they were all someone's father, mother, son, daughter....etc etc.

True, I know of 2 that have died.

[Nacho-RT74]

The OP was right. So was I.  The government used a nuclear bomb to kill three flies instead of using a flyswatter.

Just like the airport controls due the US attack on 9/11. No matter if I travel from Sydney to Melbourne to visit family, controls are the same because the attack in US, on the other side of the world and in an internal flight, not even close or related to US. Worldwide decisions because what happened in one country.

Big troubles are boarded on the big way, to prevent more and bigger damages.

The problem is this hasn't finished yet. And even more, who knows what could be the numbers if some decisions weren't taken, althought still late, but better late than never.

Some countries are thinking on get softened the lockdowns, France is one of them, and their death rate againts contagiouses is at this moment worst than Spain and Italy. Definitelly the only way to "learn" is suffering.

I don't like the lockdown ( in fact I hate it ) but there is not other prooved solution on human history ( not just nowdays ), and was the only solution in China and South Korea. But they are disciplinated by culture. That's why on "western" cultures this is failing.

As alfaitalia said, no matter who is right, but for all the deaths families and related worldwide ( not just in USA ) won't matter who is right anymore on the stadistics, just will matter what could be done and it didn't.

And that's all I will say.

[Mike DC]

     
The ruling class/big corps are facing two options.  They can either start giving the public some survival money, or reopen the economy and let more people die. 

We all know which one they will choose. 
   

[stripedelete]

If terrorists or N. Korea had wiped out a city with 53,000, we'd be blowing up half the world.
And save the flu statistics.  This is incremental to the flu.

[Nacho-RT74]

If terrorists or N. Korea had wiped out a city with 53,000, we'd be blowing up half the world.

[BLK 68 R/T]

2 real doctors discussing the shamdemic.

Part 1.
https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU
Part 2.
https://youtu.be/zb6j7o1pLBw

[Mike DC]

2 real doctors discussing the shamdemic.

Part 1.
https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU
Part 2.
https://youtu.be/zb6j7o1pLBw

Dubious.  


They are arguing that the death tolls look similar to a normal flu.  But a normal flu doesn't benefit from the extreme clamp-down measures we've done to slow this one down.  

They are going by the Cali testing, but IIRC that's not a random sample at all.  They have been testing those who seek it and they have only been offering it free to those who have been in contact with a Covid infection.  That would SERIOUSLY skew the data towards a higher infection rate than the population average.  And extrapolating the whole population from that data would make the mortality rate look much lower too.  


Besides, if Covid's mortality rate is really as low as a regular flu, then we're left having to explain what the hell has killed so many more people than usual in NYC in the last month or so.  

Yeah, I know: "They are over-reporting how many deaths are actually caused by the virus."  <-- that doesn't explain why NYC's grand total death numbers (all causes) are way higher than normal in the last several weeks.  Something has been sending thousands of people to the hospital and the morgue with flu symptoms.  If it's not Covid then some other mystery disease is acting just like it.  

The docs in the video were posed with that question in the 2nd half and they basically said "The flu does this stuff too.  This is normal."  Um, no, what happened in NYC in the last few weeks was not normal.  The place was wailing with ambulances.  (And again, it has gotten that bad WITH the epic lockdown helping reduce it.)  


Those docs say they don't have an agenda.  The last few minutes of the video puts the lie to that.  Not all agendas are Democrat-vs-Republican.  

[mel t]

As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........



Instead Of 'Flattening The Curve,' We Flattened Hospitals, Doctors, And The U.S. Health Care System

Across the country, hospitals shut down 'non-essential' procedures in preparation for a surge of coronavirus patients that never appeared.

John Daniel DavidsonBy John Daniel Davidson
APRIL 23, 2020


When the lockdowns began last month, we were told that if we didn't stay home our hospitals would be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, intensive care wards would be overrun, there wouldn't be enough ventilators, and some people would probably die in their homes for lack of care. To maintain capacity in the health-care system, we all had to go on lockdown—not just the big cities, but everywhere.

So we stayed home, businesses closed, and tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs. But with the exception of New York City, the overwhelming surge of coronavirus patients never really appeared—at least not in the predicted numbers, which have been off by hundreds of thousands.

During a press conference Wednesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis noted that health experts initially projected 465,000 Floridians would be hospitalized because of coronavirus by April 24. But as of April 22, the number is slightly more than 2,000.

Even in New York, where Gov. Andrew Cuomo said last month he would need 30,000 ventilators, hospitals never came close to needing that many. The projected peak need was about 5,000, and actual usage may have been even lower.

Other overflow measures have also proven unnecessary. On Tuesday, President Trump said the USNS Comfort, the Navy hospital ship that had been deployed to New York to provide emergency care for coronavirus patients, will be leaving the city. The ship had been prepared to treat 500 patients. As of Friday, only 71 beds were occupied. An Army field hospital set up in Seattle's pro football stadium shut down earlier this month without ever having seen a single patient.

It's the same story in much of the country. In Texas, where this week Gov. Greg Abbott began gradually loosening lockdown measures, including a prohibition on most medical procedures, hospitals aren't overwhelmed. In Dallas and Houston, where coronavirus cases are concentrated in the state, makeshift overflow centers that had been under construction might not be used at all.

In Illinois, where hospitals across the state scrambled to stock up on ventilators last month, fewer than half of them have been put to use—and as of Sunday, only 757 of 1,345 ventilators were being used by COVID-19 patients. In Virginia, only about 22 percent of the ventilator supply is being used.

Meanwhile, hospitals and health care systems nationwide have had to furlough or lay off thousands of employees. Why? Because the vast majority of most hospitals' revenue comes from elective or "non-essential" procedures. We're not talking about LASIK eye surgery but things like coronary angioplasty and stents, procedures that are necessary but maybe not emergencies—yet. If hospitals can't perform these procedures because governors have banned them, then they can't pay their bills, or their employees.

To take just one example, a friend who works in a cardiac intensive care unit (ICU) in rural Virginia called recently and told me about how they had reorganized their entire system around caring for coronavirus patients. They had cancelled most "non-essential" procedures, imposed furloughs and pay cuts, and created a special ICU ward for patients with COVID-19. So far, they have had only one patient. One. The nurses assigned to the COVID-19 ward have very little to do. In the entire area covered by this hospital system, only about 30 people have tested positive for COVID-19.

If Hospitals Can Handle The Load, End The Lockdowns
I'm sure the governors and health officials who ordered these lockdowns meant well. They based their decisions on deeply flawed and woefully inaccurate models, and they should have been less panicky and more skeptical, but they were facing a completely new disease about which, thanks to China, they had almost no reliable information.

However, in hindsight it seems clear that treating the entire country as if it were New York City was a huge mistake that has cost millions of American jobs and destroyed untold amounts of wealth. Now that we know our hospitals aren't going to be overrun by COVID-19 cases, governors and mayors should immediately reverse course and begin opening their states and communities for business.

Of course, some already are—and in a phased, cautious manner, as they should. But the overarching narrative that we all bought into, that unless we stayed home and "flattened the curve" our hospitals would be inundated, and if your kids got sick there would be no beds available to treat them, has turned out to be false. It hasn't happened, and it most likely won't happen, especially now that new evidence is emerging that suggests many more people have already contracted COVID-19 than previously thought, which means the disease might be far less lethal than we feared.

Public officials responsible for the lockdowns will no doubt claim that without these draconian measures, our hospitals surely would have been overwhelmed. And who knows? Maybe they would have. It's an unfalsifiable assertion.

But at this point we should all be able to agree that the predictions were way off, and not just because they didn't take into account stay-at-home orders or business closures, because they did. The experts, in this case, were wrong. The best thing governors and mayors can do now is admit as much, and start lifting their lockdown orders so people—including doctors and nurses—can get back to work.

[mel t]

The OP was right. So was I.  The government used a nuclear bomb to kill three flies instead of using a flyswatter.