How many have survived?

[lloyd3]

In this period of enforced isolation, I'm finding time to contemplate all sorts of otherwise obscure things. Lots of talk these days about "models" and just how valid they may or may-not be. I was absentmindedly going over the 1968 Charger Registry earlier today and I noticed a couple of things, the biggest being that there were only 254 responses, with only about half of those responses being about restored or otherwise drive-able vehicles (the rest were pretty suspect). What exactly does this mean?  Does one dare to make any assumptions from the data provided? I mean... if they could shut down this entire country over the predicted results from disease modeling, what can we assume from the data we now have on these cars?  If one (dangerously?) assumes that the registry responses constitute a valid sample of the known 1968 cars, then some surprising numbers come to mind...

Out of the roughly 50 thousand Chargers produced for the 1968 model year, only about 120 of them are presently still with us in a drivable form. One can assume that, by now, the majority of those 120 cars have been restored, in one form or another (about half were reportedly undergoing restoration in that sample collected a few years ago now).  I'm sure that a fair number of cars were not reported, but...I'd be willing to guess that the folks who have made the investment of time and money into their own cars have also researched them enough to be aware of the Registry. Curiosity (& perhaps vanity?) are the great motivators here.  So, for arguments sake, lets say the data is missing another 20% of the remaining cars. To be conservative, let's say another 25 percent. That adds another 30 cars to the mix, bringing us to a remaining population of 150 drive-able 1968 Dodge Chargers. That sort-of explains why they are now encountered so rarely.  

XS29 cars made up abut 40 percent of the cars included in that data, meaning that roughly 60 real R/Ts have survived (!). That seems low to me except that when you think about it, many (if not most) of the R/T cars I see anymore are clones. If a car get restored, it usually gets an R/T badge stuck on it somewhere, along with an engine transplant.  This isn't a knock on doing such a thing, it's just reality.

20 percent of the surviving cars have 4-speeds. Extrapolating that to the 60 remaining real R/Ts, that means something like 15 real R/T 4-gear cars remain.  Again, that number seems very low to me.  Perhaps somebody with a better background in the statistics-game can chime in here and correct my numbers?

[cdr]

In this period of enforced isolation, I'm finding time to contemplate all sorts of otherwise obscure things. Lots of talk these days about "models" and just how valid they may or may-not be. I was absentmindedly going over the 1968 Charger Registry earlier today and I noticed a couple of things, the biggest being that there were only 254 responses, with only about half of those responses being about restored restored or otherwise drive-able vehicles. What exactly does this mean?  Does one dare to make any assumptions from the data provided? I mean... if they could shut down this entire country over the predicted results from disease modeling, what can we assume from the data we now have on these cars?  If one (dangerously?) assumes that the registry responses constitute a valid sample of the known 1968 cars, then some surprising numbers come to mind...

Out of the roughly 50 thousand Chargers produced for the 1968 model year, only about 120 of them are presently still with us in a drivable form. One can assume that, by now, the majority of those 120 cars have been restored, in one form or another (about half were reportedly undergoing restoration in that sample collected a few years ago now).  I'm sure that a fair number of cars were not reported, but...I'd be willing to guess that the folks who have made the investment of time and money into their own cars have also researched them enough to be aware of the Registry. Curiosity (& perhaps vanity?) are the great motivators here.  So, for arguments sake, lets say the data is missing another 20% of the remaining cars. To be conservative, let's say another 25 percent. That adds another 30 cars to the mix, bringing us to a remaining population of 150 drive-able 1968 Dodge Chargers. That sort-of explains why they are now encountered so rarely.  

XS29 cars made up abut 40 percent of the cars included in that data, meaning that roughly 60 real R/Ts have survived (!). That seems low to me except that when you think about it, many (if not most) of the R/T cars I see anymore are clones. If a car get restored, it usually gets an R/T badge stuck on it somewhere, along with an engine transplant.  This isn't a knock on doing such a thing, it's just reality.

20 percent of the surviving cars have 4-speeds. Extrapolating that to the 60 remaining real R/ts, that means something like 15 real  R/T 4-gear cars remain.  Again, that number seems very low to me.  Perhaps somebody with a better background in the statistics-game can chime in here and correct my numbers?

I see about 96k 1968 Chargers built ?

[chargervert]

102k with Canadian and export cars included.

[lloyd3]

cdr: good point! The official number for US production in 1968 is ~96 thousand cars.  I think I got the 50 thousand number as being total R/T production? Can't remember now.  How does that then affect my analysis?  It speaks to a very high attrition rate (which is no-surprise really), it has been 52 years now.  Of my speculated 150 remaining cars, what does that change?  I just checked, 17,582 R/Ts were produced in 1968. so...roughly 20 percent of production was for the R/T versions. Maybe my number aren't so far off?

[F8-4life]

It means nobody bothers to register there cars online.
The reason for this is a 68 charger is a fairly common car all things considered.
Its not a vintage Ferrari racecar or the like. Excluding Hemi chargers or bengel chargers or some other unkown rarity..
all other 68 chargers are rather ordinary considering production numbers.

[lloyd3]

F8-4life: Ok...maybe. The whole world clearly isn't digital and for many folks these are simply old cars, nothing more or less.  I haven't looked at the other registries, but I'd guess the responses are likely similar.  You know the old saying "Lies, damn lies and statistics" may apply here.  So...for 1968, 69 and 70 that would add up to roughly 750 responses to the call for information for automobiles that were manufactured in the range of roughly 300 thousand vehicles. I doubt that I'm the first person to noodle this around. Didn't Galen Glovier do something like this at one time?

[chargervert]

U.S. Charger production was 96,000 1968,83,000 1969,and 45,000 1970. In 1970 the new Challenger and Barracuda models were released, and they ate into the dated 3rd model year of the Chargers sales. The R/T production numbers were approximately 17,000 in 1968,22,000 in 1969,and 10,000 in 1970. If I had to guess the survival rate of second generation Chargers, I would guess that it is about 30 percent, and 5 percent of that is thanks to AMD, because if not for the availability of new structual sheetmetal they would have been deemed to be parts cars.

[lloyd3]

chargervert: Thank you for that. I had hoped somebody would come along with those numbers.  So, the question remains...what is a statistically valid number of responses in order to estimate the validity of the data in the Registry. If total production of 2nd gen cars is more like 224 thousand and only 30% have survived, that number is 67 thousand cars, which is still a pretty big number. That one seems a bit high to me, just through personal observation over the years.  Going with 30% for the 100K cars manufactured in 1968 means 30K '68s still driving around. That is a number I really don't find credible.

[chargervert]

You may be right, I just guessed,but if that is the case,I would guess that 20,000 are actually running driving cars,20,000 are project cars in the works, and the other 27,000 that are left are rotting away in yards,barns and junkyards. It seems like more basket case cars are coming out of the wood work since the demand and values have gone up. I had 11 of them myself, until I sold off 4 project cars in the last two years. I still have 7 of them. There a lot of them in people's hoards that haven't seen the light of day in decades!

[lloyd3]

chargervert:  For arguments sake, let's say that 20 thousand 2nd Gen cars are still "viable". The number of non-viable cars can indeed be quite large but how many of them can ever hope to become "viable" again?  That's a whole 'nuther kettle 'o fish.

[70 sublime]

The 70 Charger registry is getting close to 4000 cars
Not sure how many of them are just statistics ( as in I used to have this car and have pictures of the vin before it went for scrap ) or driving cars
But still if there was only 45000 1970 Chargers it is getting close to the 10% mark of what once was out there

http://1970chargerregistry.com/Gallery/70-Charger-Registry-Statistics

Not all 1970 Chargers that are still out there have been registered yet ( I have one)

Maybe a 10% survival rate on all Chargers would be a minimum guess

[lloyd3]

70 sublime:  Thank you for the '70 Gen 2 number.. That's way more than twice the 1968 number. Anybody have the 1969 results?  The more data the higher the confidence in the interpretation (just ask the CDC about that one!). What I'd be interested to know is how many of that number are still driving. The numbers I used from the 1968 data were the restored cars along with those listed as "being" restored. The rest I wrote-off as being long-shots at this juncture. From looking at the many cars here that have been brought back from almost nothing, I know that isn't strictly correct, but I believe that those numbers are more of an aberration for the purposes of this discussion. They are outliers and the probability of those numbers rising appreciably gets more remote with each passing month and year. Time is not the friend of any old car sitting out in the elements and the critical parts (and people!) needed to properly re-do them get more scarce all the time, sheet metal from AMD notwithstanding.

I could be talked into a 10% survival rate. That would jibe with the 20 thousand total driving cars number being discussed here earlier and it would more closely correspond with personal observations here in the Rocky Mountain West.  

I just checked, 3,862 1969s in that Registry, with just 29% being XS cars. That data isn't as useful as the 1968 Registry format, so I can't easily determine just how many are still "viable". At 10% survival rate, that's 5 thousand total R/Ts.  That number seems quite high to me still.  A thousand true R/T cars would be surprising to me. My guess now would be more like 250 for 1968.

[Stringbender]

This post is a great reminder to register my 68 charger. Always too busy till NOW. No fender tag so not alot of data to add to the registry. Has been my excuse. Growing up in the 90's I would swear I knew of every running 2 gen charger in my county. Struck out on buying/trading for all of them. What I didn't know then was there were probably 3 or 4 guys with 10 to 20 of them on the back 40! Don't know about anyone else but I only seemed to meet Those guys AFTER they'd sold them all.

[Mike DC]

 
IMO the number of "viable" surviving 2nd-gens is still north of 10,000. 

There is one set of cars that gets bought & sold on a regular basis.  That set has a lot of visibility.  There's a whole other set of cars that stays lower-profile. They have been owned by the same guy for decades, rarely get driven, don't get modified, etc.   


Think of all the "wild custom" resto-mod Chargers that show up in magazines.  Do you ever see any of them again after their initial splash of media coverage?  Usually not much.  They don't get scrapped.  They don't even get rebuilt into something else.  They just sit in collections for years.  <--- This is how a big percentage of the surviving muscle cars exist.  It's not only the expensive custom jobs.     

[6bblgt]

I'd bet there is in the vicinity of 20% survival rate for 2nd generation Chargers - what other 50+ year old 318 car has the desirability/collectability of a 1968 - '70 Charger (& it's nothing new)

there are 164 2nd generation Chargers currently registered in NORWAY!   - in case you missed that: there are 164 2nd generation Chargers currently registered in NORWAY  

one body style - lots of fans - BULLITT - Dukes of HAZZARD - Daytona - R/T - HEMI - NASCAR - LANDY - PETTY - NHRA - FAST & FURIOUS - everybody loves a Charger

if every DodgeCharger member owned/owns just one '68-'70 Charger that still exists * that would account for 20,000+ cars * I've owned 2 that still exist, am I above average?  

[lloyd3]

Well...without better data it's just rank speculation. There are something like 5 million souls here along the Front Range of Colorado anymore (sigh!) and in that fairly recently created mass of humanity (mostly in the last 20-years) I very seldom see another 2nd Gen car. I've owned mine for 24 years now (and I was seriously paying attention long before that). In all those years... I've never seen another stick car. Every single one has been an automatic transmission car. Very few, if any, have been original R/T cars and most have been clones (if a high performance version at all). 

I'm fairly sure that back in the eastern and southern parts of the country (w/much bigger populations and longer histories of settlement) the numbers are quite different. Maybe on the West Coast as well?

[Homerr]

...I'd be willing to guess that the folks who have made the investment of time and money into their own cars have also researched them enough to be aware of the Registry. Curiosity (& perhaps vanity?) are the great motivators here.....

Hi lloyd3, I'd bet on the exact opposite of the above statement.  There are many that could care less about looking up a registry or wouldn't even think about searching for one.  And many are paranoid about theft or scams, uninterested, or otherwise unwilling to enter their cars.  A big thanks out to those that do, that's why I created this registry, and made it as 'open' as possible.  It is truly WYSIWYG, there is no logging of any other info like email or IP address as I felt those were barriers to trust for some.   I just wanted a searchable record that anyone looking could find.

At the same time I appreciate your curiosity, this is the other half of having the data open - to be able to mull over the results of what has been entered as a point of interest.  Though keep in mind that this is voluntary and on the honor system.  I check in with it very rarely to audit for duplicates entries or other obvious mistakes.

Links in my sig if anyone isn't aware where to find the '68 Registry.

[lloyd3]

Homerr: I had to look up WYSIWYG as I simply didn't get it.  As a country right now, we are dealing with a wall of fear (and doom!) largely generated by our media processes, so I do understand the desire by many to keep one's possessions largely private.  I simply have no interest in living in fear, but I know my feelings aren't all that common anymore. I would also guess that the median age of many (if not most) 2nd Gen car owners results in many not fully embracing the digital world.  This alone would act to sharply curtail participation in Registry-types of activities.  Oh well....I certainly appreciate your efforts to maintain them none-the-less.

A fun exercise and an interesting distraction. Keep up the good work!

[MoparMike68]

Homerr: I had to look up WYSIWYG as I simply didn't get it.  As a country right now, we are dealing with a wall of fear (and doom!) largely generated by our media processes, so I do understand the desire by many to keep one's possessions largely private.  I simply have no interest in living in fear, but I know my feelings aren't all that common anymore. I would also guess that the median age of many (if not most) 2nd Gen car owners results in many not fully embracing the digital world.  This alone would act to sharply curtail participation in Registry-types of activities.  Oh well....I certainly appreciate your efforts to maintain them none-the-less.

A fun exercise and an interesting distraction. Keep up the good work!

It's not living in fear,although a lot of our information is available, flying under the radar decreases chances
of identity theft.
As for the median age, people in that group have been screwed over a lot more then their younger counterparts
Meaning their approach is usually one of extra caution.
Before when someone would ask my name I'd say Mike now I'm like why? 

[chargervert]

Maybe the actual survival numbers really fall closer to 25 percent, I think that my guessing 30 percent was being a bit optomistic. But I think that it is higher than 20 percent based on what I have seen throughout the years.

[Mike DC]

            

As a country right now we are dealing with a wall of fear (and doom!) largely generated by our media processes,

Well, that, and the virus which has killed 24,000 Americans in the last 15 days.    

[lloyd3]

Death is inevitable, it's how you live that matters. We seem to have forgotten the meaning of two critical concepts here, "acceptable risk" and "liberty".  Letting the Nanny State control every aspect of your life is a sure recipe for tyranny.  Benjamin Franklin said it best "Those who would trade essential liberty for safety deserve neither."

[cdr]

As a country right now we are dealing with a wall of fear (and doom!) largely generated by our media processes,

Well, that, and the virus which has killed 24,000 Americans in the last 15 days.

 

Death is inevitable, it's how you live that matters. We seem to have forgotten the meaning of two critical concepts here, "acceptable risk" and "liberty".  Letting the Nanny State control every aspect of your life is a sure recipe for tyranny.  Benjamin Franklin said it best "Those who would trade essential liberty for safety deserve neither."

THIS ^^^^^^^

The numbers are BS, numbers from other causes of death are being combined with corona deaths.
I went for a Ride to the country

           

[Birdflu]

As a country right now we are dealing with a wall of fear (and doom!) largely generated by our media processes,

Well, that, and the virus which has killed 24,000 Americans in the last 15 days.

 

Death is inevitable, it's how you live that matters. We seem to have forgotten the meaning of two critical concepts here, "acceptable risk" and "liberty".  Letting the Nanny State control every aspect of your life is a sure recipe for tyranny.  Benjamin Franklin said it best "Those who would trade essential liberty for safety deserve neither."

THIS ^^^^^^^

The numbers are BS, numbers from other causes of death are being combined with corona deaths.
I went for a Ride to the country

           

Now THAT looks like 'social distancing'...just sayin'! 

[chargervert]

I like to call it antisocial distancing!