This virus really took off, didn't it?

[Mike DC]

  
I gotta toot my own horn for a moment.  Sue me.


Two weeks ago I went out on a limb and said this virus could kill 500,000 Americans.  Remember how crazy that sounded?  At the time the US death count was less than 100 people.  There were only like 1500 total cases here.  

(I never declared 500,000 deaths would happen.  I kept saying the number was plausible if our leaders didn't stop brushing off this virus as media hype.)  



But they finally did stop brushing off the problem.  LA and NYC look like ghost towns.  The whole country has been halted for two weeks with no end in sight.  And the result is . . . now Anthony Fauci is saying 200,000 deaths are possible.  Even the president says 100,000 would be "a very good outcome."  


Man, what a difference two weeks can make.  

Too bad it's no fun being right about this.  We've already lost Larry Rathgeb.  John Prine is in critical condition.  More will follow.    

I'm still really hoping the theories about warmer weather (slowing the virus) will pan out.  It's too early to tell but it seems possible.  Let's hope.    

 

[c00nhunterjoe]

Warm weather means nothing. Its warm elsewere in the world right now.... much longer and im going to host virtual burnout contests.

[XH29N0G]

Mike DC, I really hope it doesn't come to that.  I have been on the phone on and off for the past few days dealing with doctors and others related to someone who I supervise who has it. I am scared for them and the rest of us.  I am also scared because this brings back a grave warning given to me more than 10 years ago that the US was not the place to be when a pandemic hit. You might want to take a look at a short video by the post (warning for those sensitive to criticism of the administration) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/30/11-100000-what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-us/. It presents both sides of the story as it unfolded. It also rings true with what I remember and some things you described. I am not for putting those who denied it back on their heels, but it also doesn't hurt to think about how we were led.

[ACUDANUT]

Another repost. 

[Challenger340]

What a difference one week can make ?
especially when so many were so slow out of the gate not just "recognizing" the problem ? but with a President/Administration that was still in denial even one week ago ?
here is what I posted just one week ago in another thread over here: http://www.dodgecharger.com/forum/index.php/topic,137308.50.html


"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.
meaning,
any plans to re-open the economy could be a moot point ?
Time stamp:
Today is March 24th, 54,000 Cases, and the President of the United States is on record today, stating he would like to if at all possible "re-open" the U.S. Economy by Easter, April 12th, because "the cure may be worse than the disease"

No Wars wanted....
* just one opinion... mine
and
* some statements of fact for historical reference.


Think about it ?
MANY few weeks ago as far back as January the Virus had decimated much of China,  Italy and Spain's outbreaks were skyrocketing....already thousands dead there... Washington already had an outbreak on U.S. Soil....  and FOX News was still BLAMING Democrat conspiracy theories, trying paint the Virus as a Democratic Plot/Hoax to unseat the President ?.... the President himself was still saying...  "No worse than the Flu, thousands die every Flu season"

The utter incompetence in not having initiated strong actions back when the evidence was clear that this was NOT the Flu ?
and when it could have made a difference back in January, February, and even in the first 3 weeks of March ?
has definitely killed Americans.... and is going to Kill many many more needlessly, and well before their time !

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Yup, orange man bad.




Go straight to 1:30


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFCzoXhNM6c&feature=emb_title

[1970Moparmann]

"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.   Want to make a $100 bet?

[Challenger340]

Yup, orange man bad.




Go straight to 1:30


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFCzoXhNM6c&feature=emb_title

Well so what ? some old gal invited people into China town in San Francisco back on Feb 24th ?

Orange Man is a frigg'in Village IDIOT !
Go straight to 0:19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTjTaR748eg

[Challenger340]

"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.   Want to make a $100 bet?

"Betting" you $100 ain't going to change anything... I hope I'm WRONG !  But just the same... leave your offer up OK ?
because,
best estimates today are for the numbers of Virus infections to "peak" in 14 days if lucky ?
Still doubling roughly every 3 days ?
14/3 = doubling the infections 4.66 times over 2 weeks.
161k X 2 = 322K
322K X 2 = 644K
644K X 2 = 1,288,000
1,288,000 X 2 = 2.56 Million
Like I said, sure hope I'm wrong but the Math may be there ?

[Mytur Binsdirti]

"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.  

The numbers will no doubt increase, but 2 million infected in the US in 2 weeks is a bit optimistic. But it is strange thing that some here are hoping(?) for high death numbers so that they can be proved right.


However, there are unintended positive consequences of the Kung Flu. By staying home, lives are being saved who otherwise may have died over the last couple of weeks.....


COVID-19 Is Saving Lives


https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives

[alfaitalia]

"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.   Want to make a $100 bet?

Quite possible due to your denial/inactivity to start with...like italy. They have less than a 5th of the population of the US yet have over 100,000 cases...times that by 5 and that's 1/2 a million.....the Italians expect the figure to more than double yet...so that's a million in the US relative to that. If you don't fully lockdown right now (like us) then it could easily top 1.5mil.....but not in two weeks. Personally I don't think it will...the size of your country makes it more difficult to spread....so stopping all internal flights and long distance travel would be half the battle won.

Half the reason we are locked down is not to stop the viral spread...but to slow it down until warmer weather. Warmer weather won't stop it...but it will mean the hospitals have less patients with the normal winter flu and other winter issues and will have more capacity to treat the Covid19 victims.

[LaOtto70Charger]

India and Brazil are on nationwide lockdowns already so agree warm weather may not change much.  Hopefully it does.  As for this administration so much more should have been kicked off in January as a precaution instead of worrying about the economy and reelection. Or now talking up ratings.  Glad Ohio and Michigan started locking down when they did, and Indiana is following.  Still seeing numbers increase at a worrying rate.

[Nacho-RT74]

2.5 millions makes 50K deaths on the 2% initial rate.

But if we take the rate in Spain would be 200K and Italy 250K deaths.

Some to think about.

[LaOtto70Charger]

Slight correction. Brazil itself is not on lockdown. Looks like it was my company itself has the Brazil plant shutdown and people working from home.

[Mike DC]

  

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.   Want to make a $100 bet? nana

Did you get the H1N1 'Swine Flu' a decade ago?  Did you know anybody who did?  

Take a guess how many Americans got that one.  

-----------------


As for the orange man, that's politics.  We're supposed to be leaving that alone. 

I guess I just started this thread out of ego.  It's only been two weeks and my crazy estimates don't sound so crazy anymore.

[stripedelete]

Damn.  John Prine?   I was really hoping to catch him this year.

[XH29N0G]

I get the impression that most of us are in agreement about the COVID situation and how it has been handled and is being handled.  Even the deniers have needed to be slippery about what they claim.

At some point it has to for the curve to turn over and this will make the doubling time longer.  I certainly hope it is sooner than Challenger340 suggests and it might be given the projections at https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections suggest a peak in deaths in a little over two weeks for the US.  You can see where projections for the different states sit with the pull down. 

I claim no responsibility for the accuracy of these projections but know someone who has been working on them and they are publicly available.

Mytur, why do you play devils advocate?  You seem plenty smart and capable of doing research.  The agenda is what puzzles me because it is anchored in dogma and argues exceptions rather than taking an honest look at solid data and making an objective interpretation.

[mel t]

"I think there could be between 2 Million to 3.5 Million COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. by Easter... and the numbers of sick may indeed still climbing at that time.

You are going crazy.... No way in hell will 2 million people get this in the U.S.   

The numbers will no doubt increase, but 2 million infected in the US in 2 weeks is a bit optimistic. But it is strange thing that some here are hoping(?) for high death numbers so that they can be proved right.


However, there are unintended positive consequences of the Kung Flu. By staying home, lives are being saved who otherwise may have died over the last couple of weeks.....


COVID-19 Is Saving Lives


https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Who was it (in a deleted post in the other thread) that said that the announcement of bringing the hospital ships to the east & west coasts was bungled?



Without a doubt, Rachael Madcow stepped on her dick again....


https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1244667638074269702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1244667638074269702&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231244667638074269702

[XH29N0G]

I was happy to hear that the ships got there, but it was the statement made by the Navy that undermined orangehead, or whatever you called him. I bet the Navy was told that a few weeks is not acceptable and they upped their game.  Good for them and the country. It doesn't change the fact that information we get is often wrong or misleading.  New news is the whitehouse just said 200,000 deaths.  How do we know if this number is what they really think? Or if it is given out for some other reason. Can anyone convincingly make the case that they aren't inflating numbers just they can say "We did better than anyone has ever done before.  200,000 maybe 10,000,000 deaths were predicted. We got less than 100,000." The answer is not after all that has been said in the past.  Will it work?  It might, but it still won't be clear where there claims come from. 

[Mytur Binsdirti]

I get the impression that the vertically challenged Dr. Fauci (Dr. Doom) is enjoying being in the limelight at this moment in time, as if it's his time to be THE big man in the country.

And what's with Dr. Birx? Last week this was the headline coming out of her....

Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/26/dr_birx_coronavirus_data_doesnt_match_the_doomsday_media_predictions_or_analysis.html


But yesterday that message has suddenly changed....

Dr. Birx Predicts U.S. Will See 100,000 to 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths in 'Best Case Scenario'

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/dr-birx-predicts-u-s-will-see-100000-to-200000-coronavirus-deaths-in-best-case-scenario/



The bottom line is who knows what & whom to believe?

[Nacho-RT74]

damn! one more from the Superb oompa loompa!!!

WE WILL MAKE SO MANY BREATHERS ( or respirator or whatever it calls ) THAN WILL EXPORT THEM TO SPAIN AND ITALY!!

$**T you haven't able to cover your own country yet!!! why he is not able to shut his own mouth up??? nobody in the world has being trying to be the saver of the world!! not even China who is already sending material in silence without scream out they are doing it!!!

soooooo similar to Chavez, who "was" the world saver!!! LOL

[Mytur Binsdirti]

More differing projections ...


https://www.providencejournal.com/opinion/20200330/editorial-coronavirus-and-numbers



In other words, no one knows.

[hemigeno]

Thread about the virus?  Fine.

Turning this into a political argument =   (sooner or later)


http://www.dodgecharger.com/forum/index.php/topic,116099.0.html