Will Electric Cars Outsell Internal Combustion

[Challenger340]

I read the other day that Canada has the fastest climate change with the fastest increasing average temperature in the World....

Probably a lefty fake news site. I had a heat pumped installed last winter on November ~20th it was -23C that day. Lived my whole life in the north east. Last 2-3 winters have been colder and more snow than i can recall in the last 15 years. I was snowmobiling last year in early November and could have this year too. That hasn't been the norm in 25-30 years. Was first time since i was an early teenager.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Canada

These changes take places over decades or longer...you will still get colder and warmer winters but the overall trend is without a doubt up. Now whether you believe it's  a man made temperature increase its up to you (although with the pretty much irrefutable evidence to back it up you would need to have a pretty low iq (hi Donald!) to believe otherwise)....but the world is getting warmer and for whatever reason Canada is in the top few places for climate change.

So how many times has the earth had cycles of warming up and cooling off over many years since the start of time ?
And how many times has man even been around for ?? 

The Earth has had many cycles of warming, and cooling.... but always over many THOUSANDS of years.
but imo,
the more relevant question may be how many times has the Earth experience an acute warming or cooling event with 100 or 200 Years such as we are inducing burning fossil fuels ?
I dunno if anyone knows the answer to that one ?
Theories abound that the Gulf of Mexico was formed by a giant meteor impact that was the last acute event ?  around the same time the Dinosaurs went away ?

[green69rt]

One reply and I will shut up.  All the talk of previous warming and cooling cycles is great but NEVER before have there been 8 BILLION people on the planet.  Almost half live near a coast.  That means, up to, 4 BILLION people will need to find a new place to live and food, shelter to maintain them.  Those that live in Iowa (not picking, just an example) think that this will not affect them but what will happen when all those people come to Iowa  and want a place to live?  If we can do something now, that has to be better than waiting till Miami, Tallahassee, Savannah, Ga, Norfolk Va, Wash DC New York city, Boston, New Orleans, Houston Tx, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle Wa , London, Bangladesh, etc, etc, etc are underwater. If we can do something now and save our grand children from this wouldn't you do it?

OK, just forget I replied, just getting it off my chest.

Edit: final note: this thread really got off from the original question.  I would bet it will be decades before Hybrid/electric cars outsell IC cars.

[Challenger340]

Amazing.... absolutely amazing..... that there are still people who either can't ? or won't ?  for whatever reason listen to the science ?  

Equally amazing.... is people still believing Global "warming" means believing in the most simplistic terms possible that we should be seeing "warmer" median winters etc ?
We are.... but that's NOT the INTENT behind understanding climate "change" ?

What the "warming" refers to is ambient thermal energies present in weather events ?
Meaning....
think the intensity of climate, and the frequency of the extremes in climate.... the intensity and frequency of storms..... the intensity and frequency of ever more severe weather events like winds, rains, and yes even snowstorms.... the intensity and frequency of droughts..... which we are seeing !

example:
How many CAT 5 Hurricanes in the last 100 years ?
How many of those occurred in the last 15 of those 100 years ?

[Mike DC]

          

Edit: final note: this thread really got off from the original question.  I would bet it will be decades before Hybrid/electric cars outsell IC cars.

I've read that the long-term math is already starting to look better for compact economy EVs than compact IC cars.  That's just the buyers' dollar value decision, not counting any political/green motives.  

Same for sports cars.  Teslas are beating Hellcats.  Stupid-ass power, AWD, and fewer complications with putting it to the wheels on command.  



One of the big cost factors is maintenance.  EVs are so much simpler.  Those things don't need oil changes, air filters, serpentine belts, water pumps, spark plugs, radiator hoses, radiator plastic tanks, alternators, fuel pumps, timing chains, cracked exhaust manifolds, rusty mufflers, rattling catalytic converters, O2 sensors . . .  nothing.  It's basically just the chassis parts and the climate controls (all with electric assists, nothing belt-driven).  

The electric motors & batteries do fail.  But it's a few very big costs as opposed to many smaller ones.  

[alfaitalia]

Oops wrong place!!

[alfaitalia]

Now whether you believe it's  a man made temperature increase its up to you (although with the pretty much irrefutable evidence to back it up you would need to have a pretty low iq (hi Donald!) to believe otherwise)

When a citizenry is bombarded with heavily biased reports day after day while never hearing a equal reporting from the opposition, people like you tend to take the bait. The media has an agenda and you are falling for it. Irrefutable??    I hate to sound so rude because I actually like much of what I read from you but you live in a Liberal country and are bordering on socialism. OF COURSE the reports seem irrefutable because the ones feeding you the info are trying to control your lives. It sucks to wake up and realize this but it is the truth.
Hey...If I grew up in a shithole and the only people that I knew or saw were molesters and drug dealers, I'd probably think that the whole world is like that.
It is not.
Taxing people or eliminating gasoline powered cars is not going to help anyone except those that rake in the tax money and the ones that will still have cars. Jesus Christ...Its like I'm talking English to Aborigenes....The ONLY people that will have money, cars and guns will be the people in control. Politicians and BIG business, not people like us.
That is not the way that I want to live. Fuck that ! 

Honestly mate....you are just wrong. Yes people will take advantage to make political gain....same with everything really. But the science (and i mean no government independent type science) is there for all to see. And I dont live in a socialist country....but might by next week!!

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Amazing.... absolutely amazing..... that there are still people who either can't ? or won't ?  for whatever reason listen to the science ?  

It all depends whose science one wants to believe and the hysterical history of "climate change", which is simply large scale government control in the name of "saving the planet".

When it comes to "climate change", why is it that no one wants to talk about all of the Earth's naturally occurring climate change cycles that happened prior to the industrial revolution?

[alfaitalia]

I read the other day that Canada has the fastest climate change with the fastest increasing average temperature in the World....

Probably a lefty fake news site. I had a heat pumped installed last winter on November ~20th it was -23C that day. Lived my whole life in the north east. Last 2-3 winters have been colder and more snow than i can recall in the last 15 years. I was snowmobiling last year in early November and could have this year too. That hasn't been the norm in 25-30 years. Was first time since i was an early teenager.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Canada

These changes take places over decades or longer...you will still get colder and warmer winters but the overall trend is without a doubt up. Now whether you believe it's  a man made temperature increase its up to you (although with the pretty much irrefutable evidence to back it up you would need to have a pretty low iq (hi Donald!) to believe otherwise)....but the world is getting warmer and for whatever reason Canada is in the top few places for climate change.

So how many times has the earth had cycles of warming up and cooling off over many years since the start of time ?
And how many times has man even been around for ?? 

Hundreds of times....most before men existed....but that not the point....it has NEVER changed so fast....and thats because of us...chopping down rain forests and burning fossil fuels. Once upon a time the earth was so high on CO2 and other nasty gases that it was virtually uninhabitable. Then the plants came and "hoovered" up all that nasty gas and over time buried it in the ground.....so in simple terms we are releasing lots of that previously trapped carbon back into the air at a far faster rate that the remaining plants can absorb it....thats what gives you climate change.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Amazing.... absolutely amazing..... that there are still people who either can't ? or won't ?  for whatever reason listen to the science ?  

You want science? Here's something to share with all alarmists. If alarmists were truly serious about saving lives NOW, they would focus on India and China's particulate pollution and support hydro and nuclear. This paper that says the US could reduce it's CO2 emissions to ZERO and it would hardly move the needle on CO2 levels or temperature. It's from 2015 but it's the gold standard for rebuttal:

https://www.lomborg.com/press-releas...imate-promises

And here's a great article to share your alarmist buddies (and we all have them). I have a friend who knows the authors, one of them very well:

https://files.texaspolicy.com/upload...ACEE-White.pdf

[alfaitalia]

Im not an alarmist....I have two diesel Alfas, one petrol Merc and a V8 and to be honest I dont really do much about climate change myself....enjoy my life as is it!!!. But I would rather here facts than blind faith that its not happening. Yes China is by far the worse polluter....they burn over a third of the worlds mined coal and are building new power stations all the time. But if a few big governments set the example we might make a change. Both those links do nothing for me by the way...not sure why.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

Im not an alarmist....I have two diesel Alfas, one petrol Merc and a V8 and to be honest I dont really do much about climate change myself....enjoy my life as is it!!!. But I would rather here facts than blind faith that its not happening. Yes China is by far the worse polluter....they burn over a third of the worlds mined coal and are building new power stations all the time. But if a few big governments set the example we might make a change. Both those links do nothing for me by the way...not sure why.

The US HAS BEEN setting a very good example for at least 40 years, but the enviro-nut jobs/degrowthers here want the US population to think that the US is the main polluter in the world, which is simply not the case.

[Mike DC]

       
We have "cleaned up" in the last 40 years by outsourcing a lot of our pollution.  Southeast Asia does the dirtiest parts of our manufacturing work for us now.  


Example:  40-50 years ago we used to chrome-plate our own bumpers here.  Not anymore (on a commercial scale). 

[Nacho-RT74]

Damn, this thread came up somekind boring at certain point. My Opinions ( not to be discussed, just posting ):

Electric cars will outsell internal combustion certainly. When? we don't know. But could be before that we think. Europe is coming hard about internal combustion cars restrictions and that's not fair for the citizens getting cars for years and years with this technology, which is BTW at this moment more accesible yet.

The climate change is a reality. You can feel how going along the lands  leaving a forest and entering a forest how the temp changes. This adds forest are like a radiator getting cooler the air. Is not just the air pollution itself, but missing green areas, also what forest makes about that... including oxigen production.

Fuel taxes... don't worry, Goverments will take care of that. Spain goverment pretended someday in the past get some tax to the sun ( go figure, a sun tax in Spain which is the sunniest country in Europe ) for those using personal solar cells for its own electricity production at home.

Charging stations network will take less time than fuel stations all along all the countries back in the days when the gasoline and diesel production wasn't like nowdays. The electricity network already exist, including at highways. Is just about install a charging station anywhere, which BTW is easier and maybe even cheaper than a full gas station with undergrounded tanks and everything related.

Charging time and efficiency is a big problem yet. Just like when you are out of battery on your cell Phone searching for an AC outlet anywhere to recharge. Power banks ? Wheel spinning making its own recharging process ? solar cells at certain car spots ?

As mentioned above, the pollution deal is not just about pollution but also greener areas being killed to whatever... farming... its being already talked about we need to eat less meat to save forests. And forest helps on the CO2 conversion to O2, thats a fact... But I like all kind of pork product! ( well, being from Spain origins, you can figure it out !!! )

USA is larger than Europe, but most of US citizens never leave their county or counties around. I'd say maybe 60-70% of US citizens never have leaved their own state. So the European comparision about dimension and cars autonomy is certainly not valid. I could say European Citizens travel around Europe more than US citizens around USA. So this won't affect the autonomy idea about electrical cars. The only reality here is European comunications are far way better than USA, and any regular citizen can take any train and go anywhere, which is not like that in USA where the car is the main personal transportation. Aside this, the European population density is way bigger than in USA.

About the "cleaner air countries". Have you noted most of countries in the list are the smaller population density and bigger green areas?

yes, it has been changes allong the years. I remember maybe 6-8 years ago when I travelled from Venezuela to Spain, the air smell was way diff between both countries, I think mostly due the gasoline fumes in Venezuela and diesel fumes in Europe ( diesel fumes are/were way more polluted than gasoline ), and this has changed making this change practically unnoticeable latelly.

Will be great to get the balance on everything on this. Efficent farming, reforesting areas, cheaper technology to convince to the ppl to make the change due their pocket ( Ponch prooved he don't care ecologism but his pocket... that's a shame. Money is important, true, but climate is too ), softer change for citizens. Myself just got a 1997 Range Rover here in Spain, because I wanted a SUV as a driver and this is one of my favorites ever, but also because is cheaper than any electric car ( aside don't like ANY modern car design, not electric or internal combusition neither ). The BMW engine in it is not the more efficient really.

Classic cars must survive. We classic car lovers have our own right to enjoy them. We are not guilty on the pollution and we don't need to pay for it. Is just the way that it came out. Collector cars owners maybe are just 0.1% of the population? maybe even less!!! I still love LPs and they are available yet.


And about electricity production. Any energy production or transforming is a pollution production, just need to find the more efficient one. Batteries production ? will become on a new pollution industry like the oil companies are nowdays. What about the battery dispossal once they can't be recharged anymore ? Is ppl educated for that ? I still find ppl unable to use the correct containers for reciclying due ignorance or mostly of them, because ppl still don't care a shit about that.


and wait... we still haven't talked about the SEA CONTAMINATION which could be harder to beat, and could become on a larger problem than air itself ( if is not yet )

[alfaitalia]

Great post.....

[BSB67]

Follow the money.  There is truly no independent science on this subject matter.  If you believe there is, please identify the independent body and the names of the people on that independent body.  The climate science community finally has created self worth.  There is no way they will undermine their livelihood.   And a climate science professional that speaks against the pending catastrophic will be unemployed.

Our science today is no where good enough to determine if there was an "acute" change in historical time as we think we're seeing today.  

[Nacho-RT74]

is true about those apocaliptyc stories about the climate change were unprecisse and maybe exagerated, but is coming and you can feel it at this moment. If ppl is worried about the life style change with all these regulations, ( which is true are being hard and I'm not agree with that since own our world dictated it ), think on how you life style could change due the climate change later than the ecologist predictions, true, but sooner than non ecologist ppl says ( which still think is a false statement )

And still, if you don't care about climate change ( specially temp which is the most important topic being talked ) think on live on a earth completelly like this when you open your bedroom window and find this fog:



or travelling around the country and never see this anymore



and think on this.... green areas preserves the water fonts too



without forests, we won't have drinking water anymore (or not enough at least ). How many deserts get rivers with enough water ? they are deserts for a reason. Or do you want to live like in DUNE movie ? or think about Wall-E movie. It never talks about a time line, but illustrates very well the direction this could take

Climate change is affecting hard to Spain BTW, which is the bigger european food producer. Spain needs to get the balance between food production and reforesting, to make it look closer to XVI century, just right before most of forest were killed to make war ships to control the Spanish empire!

[Nacho-RT74]

around 4 years ago, the Angel's waterfall in Venezuela ( which is the higher in the world with allmost 1 km height ) looked like this:



where uses to look like this:



so... is happening or not ? dry and wet seasons happens but never happened like that.

So... climate change is or is not happening ?


so, getting back to Electrical cars will outsell internal combustion... yes will do, and I'm happy will do, but you can't put me a gun on a head to get it... get me involved and in love of the change, seduce me about that, but don't push me. Education to the ppl is the main and first step on this. Make it accesible and reasonable. And change is not just on regular citizens. Each of us can't pay for that because the life style came on that way.

The climate change can't be reversed in a day just like when the Color TV appeared to substitute the B&W TV. So don't push me in something that can't be pushed like hat. Too many stuff involved on this.

[Nacho-RT74]

BTW, electric cars needs to make SOME small noise at least! Pedestrians life is in danger since we don't use to be around streets without some noise from cars. Noises from cars coming from engines are a warning signal for pedestrians

[Challenger340]

Amazing.... absolutely amazing..... that there are still people who either can't ? or won't ?  for whatever reason listen to the science ?  

When it comes to "climate change", why is it that no one wants to talk about all of the Earth's naturally occurring climate change cycles that happened prior to the industrial revolution?

Because those "naturally occurring" climate change cycles ALL occurred over many THOUSANDS of years ?

Whenever someone wants to point to one of Earth's "naturally occurring" climate change cycles that occurred within 100-200 years ? then we may have something to discuss ?
Problem being....
there has NEVER BEEN as dramatic a change within 100-200 years on Earth that anyone knows of in Earth's history that didn't result in a dramatic extinction event ?

Save maybe the Gulf of Mexico ?
THAT is believed to have formed from a massive meteor impact that resulted in the extinction of the Dinosaurs ?

[Challenger340]

Amazing.... absolutely amazing..... that there are still people who either can't ? or won't ?  for whatever reason listen to the science ?  

You want science? Here's something to share with all alarmists. If alarmists were truly serious about saving lives NOW, they would focus on India and China's particulate pollution and support hydro and nuclear. This paper that says the US could reduce it's CO2 emissions to ZERO and it would hardly move the needle on CO2 levels or temperature. It's from 2015 but it's the gold standard for rebuttal:

https://www.lomborg.com/press-releas...imate-promises

And here's a great article to share your alarmist buddies (and we all have them). I have a friend who knows the authors, one of them very well:

https://files.texaspolicy.com/upload...ACEE-White.pdf

China begins a very aggressive Carbon Tax pricing system March 1st 2020 in 5 months.... the Communist's next 5 year plan being a $1 Trillion USD equivalent investment in cleaner Tech R & D so they can be a "World Leader"
and,
INDIA is slated to implement their Carbon Pricing system September 1st next year..... but the Indian's want to "compete" with the Chinese ?
Europe....
Russian's...
all taking iniatives....

only here in North America are we once again falling waaaaay behind.... because we refuse to be smart ?..... so the Chinese/Indian's will eat us alive economically once again !

I mean I don't care WHAT you believe personally around climate change ?
But FOLLOW THE MONEY for crissakes ?

By the time I buy a Tesla EV and retro-fit my home for Solar etc. ? I've just dumped another $100K ?
WHO WANTS some of THAT ?

[alfaitalia]

BTW, electric cars needs to make SOME small noise at least! Pedestrians life is in danger since we don't use to be around streets without some noise from cars. Noises from cars coming from engines are a warning signal for pedestrians

Very true and exactly why all EVs sold after 2020 here will need to have a noise of some sort....too many pedestrians getting hit....I was nearly one of then when I was out running a while back. Fancy your Tesla with a V8 soundtrack....no problem!

[alfaitalia]

Our science today is no where good enough to determine if there was an "acute" change in historical time as we think we're seeing today.  

Yes there is...ice cores that track the temperature of our planet and the amount of CO2 in the air for 10s of 1000s of years are a fantastic source of climate change info and how fast it happened...no doubt there are other methods too. People don't just make this shit up you know....as much as many would lke to believe they do.

[BSB67]

Our science today is no where good enough to determine if there was an "acute" change in historical time as we think we're seeing today.  

Yes there is...ice cores that track the temperature of our planet and the amount of CO2 in the air for 10s of 1000s of years are a fantastic source of climate change info and how fast it happened...no doubt there are other methods too. People don't just make this shit up you know....as much as many would lke to believe they do.

Yes, they can track trends in the 10's of thousands of year for the past millions of years, but not ten or hundred year increments.

[Challenger340]

Our science today is no where good enough to determine if there was an "acute" change in historical time as we think we're seeing today.  

In my opinion only....
I believe there is very solid ? and now accepted as proven evidence of an "acute" climate change event in Earth's history ?
and it is very similar to within the 100-200 year period of climate change to what we are seeing/inducing today with Fossil Fuels ?

Google for yourself if you are interested and reach your own conclusions.

"cretaceous-tertiary extinction event"
or,
"Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event"

[Nacho-RT74]

BTW, electric cars needs to make SOME small noise at least! Pedestrians life is in danger since we don't use to be around streets without some noise from cars. Noises from cars coming from engines are a warning signal for pedestrians

Very true and exactly why all EVs sold after 2020 here will need to have a noise of some sort....too many pedestrians getting hit....I was nearly one of then when I was out running a while back. Fancy your Tesla with a V8 soundtrack....no problem!

one EV taxi allmost hit me last year in Santander. True is it was going back so I never realize he was to leave its parking place.