Will Electric Cars Outsell Internal Combustion

[Ghoste]

It seems like there is more talk of them all the time.  Do you think the internal combustion engine is going away anytime soon?

[b5blue]

In ten years I'd say. 

[tan top]

 nope ! only time I can / could see  electric out selling internal combustion cars  is if , all electric cars were priced at $4000 to $8000  thousand new !  for all the models & makes , charging time  would be a couple of minutes max  &  a gallon of electricity would be a quarter of the price of a gallon of gas   & finally main dealer servicing cost & replacement parts would be half the price of a conventional  internal combustion car   , but who knows look how social media / sadbook  smart / I phones have taken off a certain age group cant put the damn things down & even killing them selves while taking selfies & texting while driving ... so who knows
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deRoxmrwYiI
 
always liked a olds 442 with a 455

 

[Mike DC]

  
Small compacts that are used for efficient transportation?   Electrics will dominate pretty soon.

Fullsize pickups that are used to do work?  They will stay combustion for the foreseeable future.   Batteries can't even approach the energy density of liquid fuel.


The vehicles in the middle are the uncertainty.  

[Mytur Binsdirti]

I say no, unless battery technology improves greatly and quickly, someone invent a "Mr. Fusion" or dilithium crystals are discovered and an engine is built that runs on them.

[ACUDANUT]

Only people who should or will buy them are folks in big cities that have major congestion issues. Some people drive 20 miles to work and it takes the 1.5 hours to get there.
Glad I moved from California to the Midwest.

[Ponch ®]

depends on the infrastructure (ie. charging stations) and how the tech curve moves along to make them more practical for certain uses. I personally stopped short of getting a Model 3 only because I often have to drive long distances to the middle of nowhere for work and didn't want to risk running out of juice with no way to charge quickly.  If I had a normal type commute, I'd have been all over it.

You guys sometimes forget that not everyone is a gearhead like us. 90% of the buying public sees cars as appliances. Make one that's aesthetically pleasing and uses no gas, and it will sell.

[alfaitalia]

You will not be able to buy a new car with an internal combustion engine in the UK after 2042. We are on target to sell 10% of all new cars as full electrics (not including stupid hybrids!) this year and it will only get higher as the tech improves....we already have cars that can do around 400 miles on a single charge (lets be honest that enough in a single drive without stopping for most of us) and you can get to about 80% of full charge in half an hour with the right charger. 1000 mile plus range is just around the corner and charging from a normal house plug....its coming in afraid!

[ACUDANUT]

 What about the EPA and all the battery acid spilling into the ground.   

[Ponch ®]

What about the EPA and all the battery acid spilling into the ground.   

Hell if I care.

Less gas money spent on my daily drivers = more money spent on the classic.

[Ponch ®]

1000 mile plus range is just around the corner and charging from a normal house plug....its coming in afraid!

My magic number before I go full electric is 500 actual (not "estimated") miles. It's about 3 days (and then some) of regular commute and would be enough to get me to and back from some of the remote locations I have to drive to.

[BSB67]

You guys sometimes forget that not everyone is a gearhead like us. 90% of the buying public sees cars as appliances. Make one that's aesthetically pleasing and uses no gas, and it will sell.

Exactly.  I think it will be some time before all vehicles are electric, but the 50% mark will be here before you know it.  Take a look around.  You can get just about everything powered by a battery.  Most of my industrial and commercial contractors are almost 100% battery for tools.  The Stihl catalog is full of batter power options for just about every tool.  Auto companies have all partnered with battery companies with big $$$ for catching up with other companies.    Car prices will come down and more high paying american labor jobs will go out the door as no battery will be made here.  The UAW is already seeing it coming, and I understand that this is part of today's strike discussion.

When they become less expensive than an ICE motive vehicle, they'll really take off.

Usually these types of significant changes happen at an exponential rate.

[Kern Dog]

You will not be able to buy a new car with an internal combustion engine in the UK after 2042.

I would bet money that as that year grows closer, they push it further out, then again further out...

[Mike DC]

I would bet money that as that year grows closer, they push it further out, then again further out...

I wouldn't bet too high on that.


Their gasoline prices have always been much higher than the USA's.      

The UK is a group of relatively small crowded islands.  Creating the charging station infrastructure will not be such a huge job.  

They have compact cities and their public transportation isn't a joke - fewer people buy commuter cars than in USA, electric or not.  

I assume the electric rule applies to commuter cars only, not for trucks that do work (and thus need the energy density of 'petrol').  They don't have our big truck/SUV habit so their average commuter car is actually small to begin with. 


It's a very different set of circumstances than we have.

[Ghoste]

Europe in general is like that.   You can drive through five different countries in a day.

[cdr]

Europe in general is like that.   You can drive through five different countries in a day.

Its hard to get across Texas east to west or North to south in one day LOL, 801 miles top to bottom, 773 east to west. & alot of NOTHING

[JB400]

You will not be able to buy a new car with an internal combustion engine in the UK after 2042.

I would bet money that as that year grows closer, they push it further out, then again further out...

I believe the ice will be phased out before than in GB. A lot of advancement can be made in 20 years.  I'm sure battery range will be comparable if not exceeding the range of gasoline by then.

[Mike DC]

I believe the ice will be phased out before than in GB. A lot of advancement can be made in 20 years.  I'm sure battery range will be comparable if not exceeding the range of gasoline by then.

I gotta disagree on that.  

Fossil fuels have always been a vastly superior way to store power, and they still are.  Electric cars only became viable because the batteries had made a little progress + the drivetrains got more efficient than ever.  Electric batteries still absolutely suck in the big picture compared to storing power in a few gallons of combustible fossil fuels.  I don't see big leaps & bounds in battery tech very soon.  That has been "a few years away" for over a century.  

[green69rt]

I voted on 15 years "just because", but, more realistically I think it will take 30 years to install all the infrastructure to support electric cars over long distances.  A lot of people will probably end up with an electric for around town but keep a gas powered car/truck for specific tasks or for long distance travel.  That's probably where I will be in five years.  Don't even count the old muscle cars like we have, there are so few of them that they really don't count much in the mix.

Just a side note, eventually, there will be more regulation and restrictions put on driving cars in dense population areas (that means downtown of big cities).  London and other cities already do this so it will happen here, just not the exact same but the same effect.  So will gas powered cars go away, not for decades but they will be a smaller mix of the cars on the road.

[BSB67]

Does anyone think battery technology has not changed in a 100 years.  That's funny.

Tesla has recently filed patents for "million mile batteries".  Every major is spending way more money on battery technology and research.

Maybe they have it wrong.

[Mike DC]

Does anyone think battery technology has not changed in a 100 years.  That's funny.

Tesla has recently filed patents for "million mile batteries".  Every major is spending way more money on battery technology and research.

Maybe they have it wrong.

Humanity has been trying to make better batteries for well over 100 years.  The electric car industry is standing in line waiting for them along with smartphones and power tools and nuclear submarines.    

Has progress been made in a century?  Yes.
Are they near fossil fuels yet?  No.    


Elon Musk - he could announce plans to build a Death Star and the press would run the story with a straight face.  I'll believe a million-mile battery when I see one.  

[alfaitalia]

Obviously (for the hard of thinking that might be on here) thats a million mile lifetime.....not range!!!

[BSB67]

Because Musk has no track record for innovation and success.  The media has nothing to do with it. I'm just standing here with my eyes and ears open.

[Mike DC]

Because Musk has no track record for innovation and success.  The media has nothing to do with it. I'm just standing here with my eyes and ears open.

I would agree he's gotten a lot done, and succeeded at some surprising stuff.

He has also claimed he's gonna build hi-speed tunnels under LA and up to SanFran.  And send people to Mars by 2025.  Etc.  The SEC and DOJ have both gone after him with major financial fraud investigations.

[c00nhunterjoe]

Oil companies are too big and too deep into worldwide pockets. If we went full battery, they would be bankrupted. Will never happen. More battery cars- sure, but never phased out. Everyone loves their hybrids til they breakdown.... i see the bug eyes all the time when i tell them how much the repairs will cost. And tesla is a joke. Not sure how they are getting around alot of legalities. For instance- just had to do a state inspection on one. Tesla refuses to publish even brake specifications. No specs no inspection. Sorry, it fails. Called tesla and they said they wont give the info out, you can only buy parts and get repairs done at their dealer. Thats illegal. Had a pissed off customer. Even called the state police who agreed with me and failed the car.