The future of classics

[Dreamcar]

The UK announced recently that they want to ban the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. France has already made a similar announcement. I'm sure North American governments will start at least thinking about it, but I doubt it will be before 2040. We seem much more dependent on fossil fuels for our economies. 2040 seems far away but I think the tech will be here much faster than that, and will become quite common.

Just wondering what people's thoughts are on how it will affect the classic car hobby in general, not just Chargers. Will values go up? Or plummet?

[alfaitalia]

Nothing as far as I can tell so far (I'm in the UK)...it will only affect new cars sold after that date...there will be no ban of petrol/ diesel cars....just natural wastage as those cars slowly die. Which means eventually the ONLY petrol cars will be classic and enthusiast owned cars!

[RCCDrew]

Seems dumb to me to outlaw a certain type of anything without a viable replacement. If electric cars were the best thing out there the market will turn in that direction. Hasn't happened yet because the technology isn't there, IMO.

[Mike DC]

  
I don't see gasoline cars ever being banned in the USA.  Not in the foreseeable future.

The USA is more ill-suited to electrics than Europe in general.  Longer commutes, more spread population, and much more deeply ingrained dependence/usage of internal combustion.  That's why the govt spends a lot of money indirectly in order to make sure our direct gas prices remain very low at the pump.

Electrics are certainly coming here though.  It will continue to happen just because of market forces as electric stuff gets better.  

----------------


It's a matter of time before common electric cars start kicking our cars' asses in the performance sense.  That may be the bigger shock to our hobby.  

It IS coming.  Simple physics.  Batteries can dump more of their power to the wheels in a shorter amount of time than a (street practical) gasoline drivetrain can.  

[Dreamcar]

Here's a reference article. Like I said, it's only a ban on new cars once 2040 comes around. Given the pace of technology, I definitely see the costs of electrics going down and range going way up. You still can't make them sound cool though..

.http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/news/uk-bans-gasoline-diesel-engines-2040/index.html

[69CoronetRT]

 
I don't see gasoline cars ever being banned in the USA.  Not in the foreseeable future.

The USA is more ill-suited to electrics than Europe in general.  Longer commutes, more spread population, and much more deeply ingrained dependence/usage of internal combustion.  That's why the govt spends a lot of money indirectly in order to make sure our direct gas prices remain very low at the pump.

Electrics are certainly coming here though.  It will continue to happen just because of market forces as electric stuff gets better.  

----------------


It's a matter of time before common electric cars start kicking our cars' asses in the performance sense.  That may be the bigger shock to our hobby.  

It IS coming.  Simple physics.  Batteries can dump more of their power to the wheels in a shorter amount of time than a (street practical) gasoline drivetrain can.  

Where will the electricity come from to power the cars?

Given the increase in population and current requirement to support increased demand by population and support (does anyone realize the load required to support a Google data center?) and given that it is virtually impossible to bring a new base load power plant on line, and given that today's alternate energy sources are supposed to replace, not supplement, current plants, where will the energy come from to power this nations requirements for electric cars?

[DAY CLONA]

I'm sure there will be conversion kits for older classics?....

[Kern Dog]

That is a cool picture. The SuperBird still has a front sway bar though!

[RallyeMike]

 

Where will the electricity come from to power the cars?

Given the increase in population and current requirement to support increased demand by population and support (does anyone realize the load required to support a Google data center?) and given that it is virtually impossible to bring a new base load power plant on line, and given that today's alternate energy sources are supposed to replace, not supplement, current plants, where will the energy come from to power this nations requirements for electric cars?

Most 1st world electric utilities are seeing no load growth despite population expansion because technology in lighting, etc. has cut demand equally or even more. Other things, like the boom in cheap natural gas in the US has cut into electric loads.

The heaviest loads from vehicle charging will come mostly at night when overall load is typically lowest, meaning that expanding ultimate generating capacity is not really a concern - the existing plant capacity can stay ramped up at night rather than idle down as is typical. Electric utilities are also investing in smart meters that can be used to balance loads by teaching users when the cheapest (lowest load) electric rates are available.....  also accepting the expanding home solar feed back into the grid. Lastly, technology in major solar and wind plants are providing more capacity every year - not a huge % right now, but it continues to grow every year at a steady pace, not unlike the growth in electric vehicles.

I think it will be quite some time longer than 2040 for fuel cars to go totally by the wayside because fuel vehicles will still be needed for rail, vessels, trucking and other industrial needs. In addition, fuel is cheap and plentiful - it seems like there is more ways found to extract it every day. Not to mention - nobody will be flying in electric airplanes any time soon.

[69CoronetRT]

Data from the EIA (Federal reporting clearing house for generation and use. I submit the annual report for our utility.) At the current level, we will see 10% growth per decade.

Technology has slowed the growth in some areas like cooling, lighting and load management but not reversed it. The use of energy to support the growth in technology such as data services, (the internet, cloud services, etc) continues to grow.

The increased efficiency in the production of natural gas has allowed the growth of gas fired generators to gradually replace coal plants as they are retired due to aging or the inability to meet emissions requirements. It's a trade off in generation, not a supplement.

The increased production of natural gas through the fracking process will become more controversial due to concerns over the geological changes it brings about. (Political pressure and increased oversight) Natural gas is still a fossil fuel.

It's unlikely you will see the addition of large scale hydroelectric or nuclear power. Mini nuke generators are feasible but politically unpractical. Mini hydro has some promise but is environmentally sensitive and therefore, political.

Current overall load is lower at night, but in your proposal, it will, unnaturally increase due to new load requirements: recharging all the cars meaning greater generation requirements for 24 hours instead of a drop at night. This should increase operational efficiency at plants, thereby lowering some operational costs, but add to fuel demands to meet additional load. Demand and supply affects fuel pricing. Fuel pricing affects rates.

Battery technology will improve but how much additional energy will it take to mine, process and assemble the batteries? What's the environmental impact on that large of a scale of battery production up front or on the back end when they are depleted?

The bottom line is....where will the total generation for widespread use of electric cars come from?

Recent Data from EIA

Key Indicators
May 2017   % Change from May 2016
Total net generation (thousand MWh)   321,216   1.2%
Residential retail price (cents/kwh)   13.02   1.8%
Retail sales (thousand MWh)   288,934   2.9%
Cooling degree-days   107   0.9%
Coal consumption (thousand tons)   51,082   13.4%
Natural gas consumption (Mcf)   732,226   -12.8%
Source: Electricity Monthly Update.

[Troy]

I was at dinner with a few people from work a few weeks ago and one made a comment to the effect of "everyone will be riding in autonomous electric vehicles within 10 years". Now, we all work in technology and these guys are HUGE Elon Musk fans but I had to toss a wrench into their thinking. Primarily, *I* will not have an autonomous electric vehicle within 10 years. Maybe those guys will but I doubt production capacity, legal issues, and driver trust will catch up that quickly. I think part of their vision (at least) is that companies like Uber will have an autonomous fleet so the average person won't even need a vehicle but, if they did, the supply would be there. I just can't imagine every single person owning the exact vehicle used by taxis. Their vision didn't include variety. I love technology. I also appreciate cars with style/soul. That's what I think a lot of the dreamers who focus on transportation are missing. But alas, we are a dying breed. The rest of the world (from a percentage standpoint) doesn't much care for "cool" cars (or they think "cool" is the latest doodads and gadgets to link to their phone).

Troy

[Chargen69]

i hope all those "progressive" countries ban everything using gasoline products.



maybe the price of gas will come down over here

[Mike DC]

I was at dinner with a few people from work a few weeks ago and one made a comment to the effect of "everyone will be riding in autonomous electric vehicles within 10 years". Now, we all work in technology and these guys are HUGE Elon Musk fans but I had to toss a wrench into their thinking. Primarily, *I* will not have an autonomous electric vehicle within 10 years. Maybe those guys will but I doubt production capacity, legal issues, and driver trust will catch up that quickly. I think part of their vision (at least) is that companies like Uber will have an autonomous fleet so the average person won't even need a vehicle but, if they did, the supply would be there. I just can't imagine every single person owning the exact vehicle used by taxis. Their vision didn't include variety. Wink I love technology. I also appreciate cars with style/soul. That's what I think a lot of the dreamers who focus on transportation are missing. But alas, we are a dying breed. The rest of the world (from a percentage standpoint) doesn't much care for "cool" cars (or they think "cool" is the latest doodads and gadgets to link to their phone).

Troy

I'm wondering when Elon Musk is gonna quit pussy-footing around and officially start his own religion.



"Nobody will be using _____ in 10 years" 

Big fans of cutting-edge tech never learn.  They always extrapolate their own personal rates-of-change onto the whole population.  And they always assume the population will get rid of older hardware just as quickly as they do older software. 

It doesn't work that way.  Any piece of hardware bigger than a cell phone will linger 15+ years longer than they expect.   

[alfaitalia]

As said above I cant see it happening in the USA anytime soon. Not for political reasons although that will come into it...but for logistical ones. We, in the UK, pretty much already have the infrastructure in place for electric cars and nearly 100,000 were sold here last year (against over 2,500,000 petrol and diesel cars mind!). Just need a load more charging points and more power generation but with the rate wind power stations are springing up around our windy coast that should not be a major issue ... However you have a massive country with huge gaps between the cities that is relatively unpopulated compared to my densely populated country...about 650 people per square mile here and only about  84 there (source wiki...so hopefully not miles out!). With current battery tech range would be a major problem over there. No so here where even an average 150 mile range car will easily get you to the next charge point. Range will increase as tech improves....not sure it will ever give the range you guys need for interstate travel though.

[sccachallenger]

Got to admit it I'm a little worried about fuel price and availability.
If and when classic car owners are the only users of gasoline.
Always wondered if I'd still like my internal combustion stuff as much with an electric power plant?

[Mytur Binsdirti]

How far away from "Total Recall" are we?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY

[Todd Wilson]

Lets all hum hum hum a Prius for every one!


Todd

[Aero426]

Regarding electrics,  I think it is still too early to tell.    Many "green" movements are ultimately turned on by their embracers.      Diesel was popular in Europe.    All of a sudden, it's now "dirty".    Electric cars still have the same problems (range and recharging) they did 100 years ago.    It is very difficult to beat a good gasoline engine.    I do not see them completely going away in our lifetime.   

I see the larger looming problem looming for classics as there not being a large "next generation" of people to take them over.    Car culture is still very strong.    Past history has sort of proven that your kids really don't want your stuff.   

[moparstuart]

Regarding electrics,  I think it is still too early to tell.    Many "green" movements are ultimately turned on by their embracers.      Diesel was popular in Europe.    All of a sudden, it's now "dirty".    Electric cars still have the same problems (range and recharging) they did 100 years ago.    It is very difficult to beat a good gasoline engine.    I do not see them completely going away in our lifetime.   

I see the larger looming problem looming for classics as there not being a large "next generation" of people to take them over.    Car culture is still very strong.    Past history has sort of proven that your kids really don't want your stuff.   

worked the reverse in my family , My dad always hated my cars  , my kids have me killed off already and they are fighting who gets what .   

[Troy]

Think about airplanes and boats. Where are you going to find a charging station in the middle of the Atlantic?

Just to add... even if we were to stop using gasoline tomorrow - oil is the base for a whole lot of products so it's not like all the oil wells would magically shut down. Gasoline is just one product of the refining process. I mentioned this a long time ago in relation to diesel prices as diesel fuel is basically a byproduct of gasoline refining. You can't magically make more diesel and less gasoline.

I don't want to copy-paste a big list but here's a Wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_product

And that page uses this as a source:
http://www.ranken-energy.com/Products%20from%20Petroleum.htm

Footballs! And Helmets. Toothpaste, Anesthetics, Shaving Cream, Linoleum, Soft Contact Lenses, House Paint , Detergent, Hair Color, Hand Lotion, and so on. Then the semi-obvious: propane, heating oil, machine oil, motor oil, grease, paraffin wax, sulfur, tar, asphalt (including shingles as well as roads).

So, it's possible that the combustion engine powered passenger vehicles could be regulated out of existence (and quite possibly pushed out by better vehicles) but there's a host of other problems to solve before writing off oil in general.

And what I find fascinating... is that advances in technology that open up all these other possibilities also make the combustion engine that much more powerful and efficient - which skews the cost/benefits of competing technologies. We have been hearing about the death of gasoline powered cars for decades at least. People typically choose the path of least resistance (ie whatever is cheapest, does the job, and hassle free). The politicians' solution seems to always be to force change.

And what are people in developing countries going to buy when all the manufacturers make are electric powered autonomous cars. You know, places without roads, electricity, or toilets. We only recently hit the point where 50% of the world has indoor plumbing.

Troy

[odcics2]

How far away from "Total Recall" are we?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY

Great link!   

[Mike DC]

 
I've always been a fan of the combination gas/electric layout, like diesel/elec trains or WWII submarines.  It seems like the best of both worlds.  The vehicle gets the efficiency gains of an electric drivetrain moving the wheels.  But it keeps the range & refueling advantages of gasoline.  

[Aero426]

Regarding electrics,  I think it is still too early to tell.    Many "green" movements are ultimately turned on by their embracers.      Diesel was popular in Europe.    All of a sudden, it's now "dirty".    Electric cars still have the same problems (range and recharging) they did 100 years ago.    It is very difficult to beat a good gasoline engine.    I do not see them completely going away in our lifetime.   

I see the larger looming problem looming for classics as there not being a large "next generation" of people to take them over.    Car culture is still very strong.    Past history has sort of proven that your kids really don't want your stuff.   

worked the reverse in my family , My dad always hated my cars  , my kids have me killed off already and they are fighting who gets what .   

You, happily are the exception.    Look at the average age of the participants at the next Mopar show.   We are all old! 

[moparstuart]

Regarding electrics,  I think it is still too early to tell.    Many "green" movements are ultimately turned on by their embracers.      Diesel was popular in Europe.    All of a sudden, it's now "dirty".    Electric cars still have the same problems (range and recharging) they did 100 years ago.    It is very difficult to beat a good gasoline engine.    I do not see them completely going away in our lifetime.  

I see the larger looming problem looming for classics as there not being a large "next generation" of people to take them over.    Car culture is still very strong.    Past history has sort of proven that your kids really don't want your stuff.  

worked the reverse in my family , My dad always hated my cars  , my kids have me killed off already and they are fighting who gets what .  

You, happily are the exception.    Look at the average age of the participants at the next Mopar show.   We are all old!  

yup  I at least did one thing right with them  

[redgum78]

My answer to the original question is that it won't effect classic cars.

Since the introduction of automobiles there is almost no practical reason for a person to own or use a horse (maybe a few exceptions but not many). Yet horses, horse racing and other horse related activities have continued and even grown over the last 100 years simply because they where such an important part of human development, and some people just like them.

I suspect when our internal combustion engine finally reaches a point where it is no longer practical we will continue to see enthusiasts and interest groups keep the hobby going for decades or even centuries for exactly the same reason we have horse races today