RECESSION, THE SECOND WAVE. IS IT COMING?

[Paul G]

I'm with ya Kern. They are using some big words. Not normal for this site. I like the diversity though. 

[Laowho]

Yes Cooldude, let's. BTW, have you subscribed to his Project Prophecy? And what do you know about LTCM? (Long Term Capital Management--brilliant really, except until it wasn't)

Here's a thread to start--follow the nose, it always knows--and if you wanna get into monetary and fiscal policy thereafter we can. BTW, I only just found this from a cursory search by his name, the second link I clicked (after a faux Forbes editorial), so it isn't as though this stuff is hard to find, and I'm happy to report that the general consensus about him as a person (not as an authority, b/c he isn't) is exactly as I've stated it. Guess I just got lucky?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=162432

(Above is from Vanguard's investor forum)

The majority is not always wrong. BUT, doesn't mean there aren't folks who will pay for snake oil. Are you one of them? If so, well...then you might be feelin pot-committed and I understand your concerns. Rest-assured you're not alone

https://agora-financial.pissedconsumer.com/

Maybe just one more, from the San Diego Consumers Action Network--a nice synopsis of Rickards and his ilk, with a few live links callin BS on him

http://www.sandiegocan.org/2014/10/07/learning-not-to-fear-the-day-after-plan/

I wish I could find him cited in any of the peer-reviewed literature, Federal Reserve Bank working papers, or by any serious economists, but he's not there. Never was. He's the background noise to legitimate concerns, and a huckster ready to capitalize. Like I said.

And if it really needs to be said, then here it is--doesn't matter whether I would otherwise agree w/ 90% of his generalized statements, or even more. If I were to stop there it would be pure confirmation bias. From any serious research standpoint his generalizations are disqualifying for their lack of real substance and scholarship, but the absolute disqualification is his peddling, and before that, his history with LTCM. Like I said. Caveat emptor.

Cheers

[Laowho]

I'm with ya Kern. They are using some big words. Not normal for this site. I like the diversity though. 

Big words? As if. Maybe you guys just forgot what it's like for the average joe to try to follow you here talkin about things we don't even have references for. I'd trade it all to be able to build an engine, but I'm not done yet...til then, I'll just keep searchin all the parts you take apart and put back together, but words and pictures don't help much.

[cooldude]

Well Kern Dog, I see your point, and I think you are entirely correct.

That is why I like to use Jim Rickards as a source. Even though he may talk complex stuff, he leaves the average guy with enough of a sense of what he is talking about to understand that ...an enormous crash is coming soon!

It has been artificially postponed for a short time, at the expense of making the problem that much worse when it comes. And it has already started.

Asset values in just about everything are way over valued. This is for the stock market, but also for other things, such as real estate, classic cars, stocks, bonds, you name it.

I just wanted to warn my fellow Mopar buddies, so that they didnt loose everything by leveraging the family farm on buying into way over valued investments, just when the crash is about to drop.

Hey, we are all Mopar guys here, and we have to look out for each other. 

[cooldude]

As to LAOWHO...

I asked you a simple request, to give a rebuttal to the points that Jim made in the video, which you failed to do.

If you do wish to go back and pick up the challenge, please use the timer counter in the video link that I provided to show what point you are making a rebuttal to, so that I can find it.

We are all Mopar guys here, so we should not use dirty debating tricks on each other.  One of them is the old discrediting of sources without giving a rebuttal.

Another is the old "Strawman" argument...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man


You brought up Peter Schiff and then attacked his credibility (as if I had cited him). It seemed a little bit like a strawman argument to me.

But Im not accusing you, and Im not calling you names.

Im just asking you to give an actual rebuttal to the points (even two or three) that Jim made?

BTW, are you a Kanesian?

[Mike DC]

 

He probably attacked Schiff's credibility because I had just made a similar comment about Schiff.   No need to get wound up over it.

[68X426]

BTW, are you a Kanesian?

Please can you check your spelling.

Kanesian - there are five possibilities of what you mean by that.

Kanesian - as in Kanes.  Members of the Hittite tribes in Mesopatamia in 1900 BC (the Early Bronze Age)
                                    who spoke the Kanesian language.

Kanesian - as in Kaine.  Followers of Tim Kaine, running for VP in 2016 AD, who speak Kainesian.

Kanesian - as in Kayne.  A singular follower of Kim Kardashian, who raps in Kaynesian.

Kanesian - as in Kansas.  People who live in Kansas, the 34th state in the Union, aka Kansans.

Kanesian - as in Keynes.  Members of the tribe who worship Keynes, as in Lord John Maynard Keynes. 
                                     Keynes as in the British economist of 1883 to 1946, who essentially invented
                                     modern economic theory and practice.

So I think you mean to ask about his worship of Keynes and not
the Kanes of the Hittites, or Kaine, or Kayne, or Kansas.





 

[ws23rt]

I like to use the analogy of the tectonic plates of the earth as being like the movements of the economy.

The plates shift and move by their weight and mass. A quake here and there is part of the nature of large forces moving against another.

Predicting earth quakes is much like predicting recessions. (or a collapse).

In the case of the economy the force is the public's sense of the value of a force.  A shift will happen (for various reasons) from time to time and some will be big.

Large earthquakes have been predicted forever. So has economic collapse.

I believe that no one can tell us when and how big the next recession will be.  But it is true it will happen.  Another truth is we will not die.

So far the economy has never --not-- recovered.   It could be a bumpy ride from time to time but it is afterall about percieved value of things as opposed to a wrecked house.

[Laowho]

Yes Cooldude, it's all about looking out for each other, which has been my point all along. And no MikeDC, I didn't bash Schiff b/c you expressed an appreciation for him, but b/c he's another fear mongering bottom-feeder. That's just weird. And 68X beat me to it...it's Keynes. I'm not worried. Anybody reading this thread knows what my intentions are, but they're right to wonder what these gold-peddlers have to do with the issue at hand. Now if this is why you "dropped in" Cooldude, then yeah, I'm callin you out. But if it's cuz yer a "mopar guy and we all gotta watch out for each other, right?" then maybe cite better sources. Wattya got?

[XH29N0G]

The message that keeps being voiced relates to a sentiment I have seen here that prefers talking about cars. (some topics can derail and get a rise in the wrong way and chargers/cars are a common thread).  Talking about them also is more fun (and an escape) for me than focusing on something that I hear about from other sources.

Your use of huckster a while back brought a smile to my face.  My grandfather helped bring it back and popularize it.  

I also like plate tectonics.  

[Mike DC]

I believe that no one can tell us when and how big the next recession will be.  But it is true it will happen.  Another truth is we will not die.

So far the economy has never --not-- recovered.   It could be a bumpy ride from time to time but it is afterall about percieved value of things as opposed to a wrecked house.

   
True, we won't die.

But recovering our standard of living is another story.  We won't just need to come out of a recession/depression, we will be chasing a level of wealth that was unsustainable to begin with.  

And no MikeDC, I didn't bash Schiff b/c you expressed an appreciation for him, but b/c he's another fear mongering bottom-feeder.

I don't have much appreciation for him in the larger sense.  He's a broken clock.  He looks right periodically.  

I was just saying that sometimes a salesman's infomercial does a good job of highlighting & summarizing a problem - even he isn't peddling a valid solution.

[Laowho]

If Cooldude isn't here to peddle then I don't have any problem with them, but I have my doubts and I haven't been the only one. Otherwise, fostering fear and anxiety to make a buck is loathsome and I don't care if I have to be misunderstood or mischaracterized to call it out. I don't even mind if Cooldude came here outa the best of intentions, and he's simply parroting what he knows from tainted sources. I'd gladly eat crow for that. But here's what I really know--that if their intentions really are right, they won't care in the least that I question them. They'd welcome it, and that hasn't happened.

[Paul G]

Let me tell you guys, I have mastered the art of the stock market. Getting in when it is low and getting out when it is lower is a gift I have.  Better than Vegas!

I plan to retire in about 5 years from now. I have 60% of my nest egg sitting in an account earning just 2%. It is safe from market crashes. The other 40% is new money invested in higher risk mutual funds in my 401K, and an IRA rolled over from a previous employer which is also in higher risk funds, these have been earning about 9%. I should probably move some of this money from high risk to a balanced account. ??

[ws23rt]

Getting advice for investments in a place like this is like getting medical advice here.

Those with back pain (for example) should see a neurologist before they see a surgeon.

We can share our experiences but one needs other advice from those that make their living and income on doing what is best for a given situation. CFP
Certified Financial Planner.

In general one is better served with lower risk investments as they age. Because they don't live long enough to see recovery from risky investments that go down at the wrong time in their life.

9% is considered good gain and also high risk.--It can go away in a matter of days and take years to come back.----RISK--

On the other end is little or no risk---Gold, corn, money market, savings accounts, etc.  These are low risk for big changes over time. --With these one knows the ---loss--- of value over time and can pretty much bank on it.----A known loss---vs a hope of gain---

Everyone has their own situation and should have a plan.---

At an early age a plan is a path.  At later ages it becomes a path without anymore splits.--

When we are at the end of earning money and in the spending what we have phase this makes the cents it should have years ago.

[Laowho]

Let me tell you guys, I have mastered the art of the stock market. Getting in when it is low and getting out when it is lower is a gift I have.   Better than Vegas!

I plan to retire in about 5 years from now. I have 60% of my nest egg sitting in an account earning just 2%. It is safe from market crashes. The other 40% is new money invested in higher risk mutual funds in my 401K, and an IRA rolled over from a previous employer which is also in higher risk funds, these have been earning about 9%. I should probably move some of this money from high risk to a balanced account. ??

Paul G, start with homework. You'll find plenty of people similarly situated over at various forums like Bogleheads (the Vanguard forum). Point being, they're all helping each other manage their own money like you're doing. There are others.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

Depending how deep you wanna go, have a look at Naked Capitalism for a more critical eye on the markets and players and developments, but without anything to sell, and for reference just look at the categories/topics in the right margin

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

Stiglitz (Nobel Economist) has made several of his books available online for free, as have many others. Even "The Big Short" (for some enlightening entertainment) can be had in audio format on Youtube, etc., etc. If you want I can post which econ/finance books I've gotten online, but I tend toward the more academic side and the subject matter is skewed to the 2008 Crisis and subsequent fallout. That said, sometimes these give a glimpse into what happens how, and if it doesn't kill ya it'll make you stronger.

Cheers

[cooldude]

Well, I asked LAOWHO to give a rebuttal to the points that Jim made, but he couldnt, or wouldnt even try. Instead I get called a gold peddler again. Oh well. Im not vain, and I have no wish to start a flame war with another Mopar guy.Heck, I might need his advice on fixing up my Charger someday.

I guess Ill just let it go.

But Im no gold peddler. I dont even own any gold, except for maybe a little jewelry. Who can afford it?

And besides, when the crash does come, gold would probably just be confiscated, like FDR did back in the 1930s.

Lets shift gears a bit, and talk about what the crash will mean to us Mopar guys. Im thinking that it can go in many ways, nobody can say. But it might be something like we saw in Cuba for decades.

When this things comes, I believe that it will drive out the speculators and investors from the classic car hobby. People just wont have the money (or barter goods) to invest in anything except bare essentials.So our hobby will return to the purist...the guys who like old cars just for the cars sake. At least at first.

But as it deepens, car plants will close, along with dealerships and parts chains, and auto mechanic shops as well. All closed. Gas might be hard to get as well.

Ultimately, the older and simpler cars will be pressed into daily service once again. Stuff that people can fix themselves in their driveway will be about all that can be maintained. Sounds fun, right? Our old Mopars will go back into daily service and be worked hard, and probably modified and Frankensteined beyond our wildest imaginations.

Remember the old trucks of the 1930s? The Beverly Hillbillys old Dodge? Or the old trucks from the dust bowl years of the 1930s? We might see classic Mopars cut up and welded onto, have truck beds made into a Cuda body, and so on. Anything to get some transportation going, just to meet the need. Maybe a Chevy or Ford drivetrain in a Mopar body. But our old Mopars will go back into daily service once again. Sounds fun right?

Well, no, not exactly. The Cubans didnt live like that all those years because they wanted to.

Besides a lot of people loosing out on investment money in the classic cars, it would mean real changes to the old car hobby. Nobody would care about rare options, or fender tags, or bone stock investment grade Hemi cars. It would just be a case of needed transportation.

A four door, bondoed up, 72 Valiant with  a slant six, would be more desirable than a 68 Hemi Charger.

And we also have to touch upon the thought that a big crash like this could involve geo-political tensions that might lead to a war. Nobody can say for sure how deep it will go, or what the consequences would be. But I can give one piece of advice.

We should probably be trying to pay down our existing debt now, and avoid taking on any new debt. The future looks sort of grim. Getting the debts paid down is probably a good first step.

[Laowho]

Stick around Cooldude, by all means. And since you're here to help protect everyone's interests, let's do it. Everything is a teachable moment, yes? So who IS Jim Rickards? Publicly he came to prominence first as the general counsel for Long Term Capital Management who negotiated their bailout in 1998, and the story of LTCM is absolutely fascinating. Check out the BBC's "Trillion Dollar Bet" about them. Entertaining and enlightening.

http://documentary-movie.com/trillion-dollar-bet/

Dunno how much of Rickards you'll find here, but you won't find anything of him anywhere anyway, other than from his self-promotions, Chicken Little-ing, and the complaints that have issued from his scams. But otherwise Cool, there's a really hollow ring about you...Mopar buddy. But you've definitely been useful, and for that we thank ye. So how about recommending some insights from somebody who isn't pushing an agenda?  Prove me wrong. I honestly, sincerely wanna be disabused of my spidey-sense about you.

p.s. Just to balance things and in the event that anybody is considering gold, consider this first

http://daytradingacademy.com/investing/market-in-gold-and-silver-ponzi-scheme

See, Rickards is one of those euphemisms that get tossed around about lawyers generally...what was it? Oh yeah, an ambulance chaser. In the interest of everybody's interests, wouldn't you agree Cool, that investment in gold is a very precarious proposition? Even Dr. Burry isn't sure whether, or how, he'd touch it, except "as an angry bullet." Am I right Mopar buddy, or am I right?   And if it isn't gold you're hawking, what is it? Home refinancing maybe? Pray do give us your advice (I mean, could you be a little more specific?). Waiting with bated breath.

[Mike DC]

Lets shift gears a bit, and talk about what the crash will mean to us Mopar guys. Im thinking that it can go in many ways, nobody can say. But it might be something like we saw in Cuba for decades.

When this things comes, I believe that it will drive out the speculators and investors from the classic car hobby. People just wont have the money (or barter goods) to invest in anything except bare essentials.So our hobby will return to the purist...the guys who like old cars just for the cars sake. At least at first.

But as it deepens, car plants will close, along with dealerships and parts chains, and auto mechanic shops as well. All closed. Gas might be hard to get as well.

Ultimately, the older and simpler cars will be pressed into daily service once again. Stuff that people can fix themselves in their driveway will be about all that can be maintained. Sounds fun, right? Our old Mopars will go back into daily service and be worked hard, and probably modified and Frankensteined beyond our wildest imaginations.

Remember the old trucks of the 1930s? The Beverly Hillbillys old Dodge? Or the old trucks from the dust bowl years of the 1930s? We might see classic Mopars cut up and welded onto, have truck beds made into a Cuda body, and so on. Anything to get some transportation going, just to meet the need. Maybe a Chevy or Ford drivetrain in a Mopar body. But our old Mopars will go back into daily service once again. Sounds fun right?

Well, no, not exactly. The Cubans didnt live like that all those years because they wanted to.

Besides a lot of people loosing out on investment money in the classic cars, it would mean real changes to the old car hobby. Nobody would care about rare options, or fender tags, or bone stock investment grade Hemi cars. It would just be a case of needed transportation.

A four door, bondoed up, 72 Valiant with  a slant six, would be more desirable than a 68 Hemi Charger.

I don't see an economic collapse causing people to cannibalize their Charger R/Ts for daily transportation.  I see people selling their Charger R/Ts to foreign buyers that ended up wealthier. 


The economy might go down the toilet but human nature won't change.  Practical survival skills are undervalued today and they will probably remain undervalued if TSHTF.  Predatory elites usually fare better than self-sufficient worker bees when things get messy.  The Prepper crowd doesn't want to believe it but it's true. 

[cooldude]

What can I say to that? You may be right, as nobody really knows what to expect with a crash on that scale.

But as to the classic cars being cannibalized for parts, or frakensteined into rolling automotive morphs, and overworked and overused long past their reasonable retirement date, thats already happening in about 2/3 of the Earths nations.

The third world is full of such cars still out there working long past the time when they would have been retired by American standards. Its happening in Cuba, and even Mexico, which isnt very far away.

(Somebody should start a thread about it)

But lets say that mortgage failures skyrocket, and families have to move back in with uncle Ted out in the country who owns a family farm thats paid for. Extended families all living together becoming the norm, cousins and grandparents and so on, all under one roof.

If they can only keep one old car running, and it happens to be a classic car of some sort, then ts just going to have to become a maid of all work.

Whoever can find a job will need to be transported to it, as well as the potatoes hauled from the field, kids taken to school, hogs hauled to market, and so on. One vehicle to do it all.

And if that one working car happens to be a classic Mopar, then thats just how it is.

I bet there are thousands of classic Mopars out in the 3rd world, doing things like this every single day.

Its not so surprising, when you think about it. America is just about to catch up with the rest of the world, thats all.

[ws23rt]

Wow---I'm going to build a bunker for me and my family and stock it up for a long haul.
My Hemi coronet will run my generator. ---Powered by my family's natural gas of course---

[polywideblock]

Lets shift gears a bit, and talk about what the crash will mean to us Mopar guys. Im thinking that it can go in many ways, nobody can say. But it might be something like we saw in Cuba for decades.

When this things comes, I believe that it will drive out the speculators and investors from the classic car hobby. People just wont have the money (or barter goods) to invest in anything except bare essentials.So our hobby will return to the purist...the guys who like old cars just for the cars sake. At least at first.

But as it deepens, car plants will close, along with dealerships and parts chains, and auto mechanic shops as well. All closed. Gas might be hard to get as well.

Ultimately, the older and simpler cars will be pressed into daily service once again. Stuff that people can fix themselves in their driveway will be about all that can be maintained. Sounds fun, right? Our old Mopars will go back into daily service and be worked hard, and probably modified and Frankensteined beyond our wildest imaginations.

Remember the old trucks of the 1930s? The Beverly Hillbillys old Dodge? Or the old trucks from the dust bowl years of the 1930s? We might see classic Mopars cut up and welded onto, have truck beds made into a Cuda body, and so on. Anything to get some transportation going, just to meet the need. Maybe a Chevy or Ford drivetrain in a Mopar body. But our old Mopars will go back into daily service once again. Sounds fun right?

Well, no, not exactly. The Cubans didnt live like that all those years because they wanted to.

Besides a lot of people loosing out on investment money in the classic cars, it would mean real changes to the old car hobby. Nobody would care about rare options, or fender tags, or bone stock investment grade Hemi cars. It would just be a case of needed transportation.

A four door, bondoed up, 72 Valiant with  a slant six, would be more desirable than a 68 Hemi Charger.

I don't see an economic collapse causing people to cannibalize their Charger R/Ts for daily transportation.  I see people selling their Charger R/Ts to foreign buyers that ended up wealthier. 


The economy might go down the toilet but human nature won't change.  Practical survival skills are undervalued today and they will probably remain undervalued if TSHTF.  Predatory elites usually fare better than self-sufficient worker bees when things get messy.  The Prepper crowd doesn't want to believe it but it's true. 

that's what happened in 2007-2009 I got my cars when the dollar was lower than ours  now its reversed and our dollar is the one worth 75 cents . "what goes around comes around" used to be my mothers favourite saying she never threw anything out ,I can remember my older sister "scrounging through her closets in the 70's-80's and being the "height of fashion "  with people demanding to know where she got her "cool  clothes" 

[440]

You sure it wasn't you scrounging through the closet?

[Laowho]

I think this is on par w/ what Muhammad Yunus has tried to do. After getting kids to school and fed for 50 cents/day, he said it's not good enough...make the disposable cups edible. Here's another innovator

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=se_fYZRbyJs

Water, energy and health. Itsa start. I'm always mindful of what Einstein said re: nuclear energy, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." It'll be the same with our financial systems, whether with a whimper or more bangs.

[Laowho]

I haven't read this thread other then the first post.  I thought we were in a recession, you mean to tell me things are going to get worse?  

I do think you Americans are F@$Ked, and from looking at your 2 options for the president of the self proclaimed greatest nation on earth things aren't getting any better.

Just saw the "no politics" bit so deleted the show link. Wasn't very good anyhoo.

[polywideblock]

You sure it wasn't you scrounging through the closet?