RECESSION, THE SECOND WAVE. IS IT COMING?

[cooldude]

Yup, you are right about that. Every US dollar in circulation is borrowed into existence.

(If we were to ever actually pay off the national debt, there would be zero US dollars in circulation)

As to gold standards, I think that there was a 40% stipulation of understanding up until about 1914, in that about 40% of the money in circulation was backed by actual bullion. But the excesses of WWI spending brought a ruin to that.

Check this link out...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/01/03/the-1870-1914-gold-standard-the-most-perfect-one-ever-created/#26d09c2b50d8


So, the most perfect monetary system ever devised by man, was the golden era of gold standards of the period 1870s-1914.  The world is still suffering from the effects of The Great War, arent we?

[BSB67]

I think that what made the 90s so great had very little to do with government economic policy. I think it was just a case of the baby boomers inheriting from their parents (the WWII generation).  

And the baby boomers, being the irresponsible people that they are, they spent it, invested it in  things on Wall Street, and real estate, and generally stimulated the economy to a boiling point. But even the wealth that their parents left them wasnt enough, and they went into debt like crazy.  

Some simple math.

In 1990, the oldest baby boomer was 44 years old.  The average baby boomer was 35.  By 2000, the average baby boomer was 45.  Do you really think baby boomer inheritance even remotely drove the 1990's economy?

I was born right in the middle of the baby boomer generation.  My mom is in her 80s, and is good health.  I have 28 cousins, our ages are 53 to 70.  We are the baby boom generation.  They are all married.  That makes basically 56 baby boomers.  Not one of us has received an inheritance, and we are all managing elderly care. It is 2016, right?

Of all the baby boomers that I know, I know of two that both parents have passed, and that was in the last several years.  There was no meaningful inheritance in one case, the other, my friend had to pay out of pocket all of the funeral expenses.

The parents of boomers are generally not rich, and "the system" gobbles up their savings pretty quick.  

I just don't see how the 1990s economy was fueled by BB inheritances.  

[XH29N0G]

I think we should get back to discussing Chargers.    

[Laowho]

Check this link out...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/01/03/the-1870-1914-gold-standard-the-most-perfect-one-ever-created/#26d09c2b50d8


So, the most perfect monetary system ever devised by man, was the golden era of gold standards of the period 1870s-1914.  The world is still suffering from the effects of The Great War, arent we?

He's a gold peddler, and as such is in no wise an economist, of any stripe. Yeah, I'm wonderin too what you're doin here. Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's...BTW, got any pictures of your gold?

And just to tie into Chargers somehow (even tho this thread was never about them), according to Hagerty's and the market, even a fairly rough 2d Gen Charger costs more than did my parent's brand new house in 1960.

[cooldude]

The greatest generation (WWII) were people born from about 1910 through about 1925 or so. They were old enough to serve in WW2, and that is why they were called the WW2 generation. For a person born in 1910, they were 80 in 1990.
So, the math says that the WW2 generation was very much into the die down phase by 1990.

Its just simple math.

And the WW2 generation were poised to enjoy the many job opportunities that young people living in America cannot even begin to comprehend. We were the manufacturing hub of the world then.Our money was sound, and there were good paying jobs everywhere. Families were more stable for the most part, and divorces were not the rage (eliminating alimony and child support) and couples were able to actually save money. There was a boom in housing unlike anything ever seen before, and the same thing went for autos and appliances, and the list just went on. And nearly everything was made in the USA. So good paying jobs were plentiful.

Taxes and regulations were much less, and the economy was robust. Of course, not everybody was a good money maker, or money manager. But the majority of them were. And they amassed an enormous pile of wealth in the boom decades of the 1950s and 1960s.

So, when this generation began dying off in the 1990s, the money, houses, and estates had to go somewhere, to somebody.

Demographics are usually more important that economic policy when it comes to dramatic swings in economic cycles. Seeing and understanding the demographic trends of the past is not so difficult. Its predicting the trends of the future that is the tricky part.

But Ill predict one thing ...

Unless a lot of financial policies get fixed, the millennials will never see the type of prosperity that the WW2 generation enjoyed.

[XH29N0G]

Taxes and regulations were much less, and the economy was robust. .......amassed an enormous pile of wealth in the boom decades of the 1950s and 1960s.

I think you are just trolling for reactions on this but I'll bite.  I don't want to go back to the taxes of the 40's, 50's 60's and 70's,.   I remember both my grandfathers talking about being in 70% + tax brackets.

[Mike DC]

I don't want to go back to the taxes of the 40's, 50's 60's and 70's,.   I remember both my grandfathers talking about being in 70% + tax brackets.

Shhh!  Don't bring up inconvenient facts that conflict with our myths about that era!  

[BSB67]

So, when this generation began dying off in the 1990s, the money, houses, and estates had to go somewhere, to somebody.

Right, it went to the generation born between 1925 to 1945. not the BB boomers, i.e my grand parents.  The std of living for those two generations were significantly better than before, and the wealth of the nation grew, but that does not necessarily mean they became wealthy.  Plus, their numbers were low relative to the following generations.

I'm presuming that you probably had relatives that died in the 1990s.  Big financial windfall for your parents or grand parents?  Did they squabble all of the money away?

People in society are continuously dieing and to think there was a surge in inheritances in the 1990s is difficult to believe.

[cooldude]

Firstly, there was indeed a "Golden Age" of economic prosperity in the post WW2 years of the 1950s and 1960s.

http://www.glovesoff.org/features/gjamerica_1.html

But that began to change in 1964 when the seeds of ruin were sewn. We went away from silver backed currency that year, and we saw the rise of the welfare state the following year, with its out of control deficit spending. These two things began our financial downfall.

In 1971, we went off the gold standard and we were continuing (and expanding) the welfare state. Our economy and currency began to collapse accordingly (no surprises there). Something had to be done, as the dollars was starting to experience runaway inflation in the 1970s, which foretold collapse unless something was done quickly.

But then the "Petro-Dollar" was established through a deal that Henry Kissinger worked out with the Saudis. They would only sell oil for US dollars, and no other currency. This ensured a demand for US dollars throughout the world, and retained the dollars place as the world reserve currency.

In exchange, we promised to defend the House of Saud.

But now we are loosing our reserve currency status. Other nations are going away from trading in US dollars. Russia and China and other nations of the BRICS consortium, have set up an electronic clearing system which rivals the SWIFT system that the western world uses to clear electronic transfers.

And with the recent geo- political tensions, Saudi Arabia may back away from pricing oil in US dollars exclusively. If that happens, then the reserve currency of the world will no longer be the US dollar.

That is a problem, as 90% of the US dollars in existence (digital or otherwise) circulate outside the USA. When that avalanche of unwanted US currency comes flooding back to us, then there will be runaway inflation until the dollar collapses. A 900% increase in dollars, chasing the same number of goods and services, means out of control inflation.

Its just simple math.

Other factors in this perfect storm include the out of control money printing by the Fed and all the other Central Banks, as well as out of control government deficits, and corporations in debt up to thier eyeballs, as well as the citizens.

So the Central Banks will resort to more money printing.

Its all they have left, and it only delays the inevitable, at the cost of making the bubble that much bigger. So yes, we are in for the mother of all recessions, and it has been a long time coming, and all political parties must share the blame. All the people will have to share the hardship, America will not be immune to the global recession.

And lastly, I have been set upon and insulted , called names in this thread, accused of being a gold seller, just for talking about these things. But I am no gold seller, and I dont care if anyone buys gold or not.

I just happened across the thread by chance, and I joined in to contribute something of what I know, because I care about the people on the forum enough to add a little appropriate warning of what is coming soon.

[Mike DC]

The US's oil production peaking played a real part in the 1970s recession.  And that little Vietnam thingy too.  And Europe gradually getting its manufacturing/etc back online after WWII wiped it out for a generation - they had been buying our goods in higher proportion in the first few decades after the war.  And every natural resource industry picks the lowest hanging fruit first in the general sense, which leads to long term gradual price increases.  


It's not only "what went wrong" in the last 40-50 years.  The era leading up that was also a freakishly good set of circumstances for multiple reasons.  

[440]

No different to when a desert lake floods, bird life flourishes to great numbers. When the water recedes and the food source dries up the remaining birds left behind to die.

[Laowho]

And lastly, I have been set upon and insulted , called names in this thread, accused of being a gold seller, just for talking about these things. But I am no gold seller, and I dont care if anyone buys gold or not.

I just happened across the thread by chance, and I joined in to contribute something of what I know, because I care about the people on the forum enough to add a little appropriate warning of what is coming soon.

I'm guessing I'm the referent here, except I'm not. I didn't say you were a gold peddler; rather, that the goof you were referencing from the link you provided was a gold-peddler scamming people by preying upon their fears. That's why I included the link and asked for proof of physical gold. I also hoped to make the point that, if you're relying upon him for any understanding of economics, you're woefully uninformed as to just how truly precarious and incomprehensible the whole schema actually is. And yeah, it is a little unusual to join this forum just for that, especially if your understanding of the situation is thusly predicated. Go back and read the working papers of the various Federal Reserve Banks for the last 10 years as I have, dust off your Das Kapital, Ricardo, Stiglitz, Smith, et al., or broaden your base beyond theory with Perkins' Confessions of an Economic Hitman, Zinn's People's History, etc., etc., then tell me how "bad" you think things are. But if you wanna try to narrow your diatribe to "our" immediate "financial" future, for God's sake expand your base or cite better sources.  

[Bobs69]

I haven't read this thread other then the first post.  I thought we were in a recession, you mean to tell me things are going to get worse? 

I do think you Americans are F@$Ked, and from looking at your 2 options for the president of the self proclaimed greatest nation on earth things aren't getting any better.

[Laowho]

Well Bobs69, there's the rub. It's not even agreed that we're in a recession

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=are+we+in+a+recession%3F

Pick your source/authority. Nobody knows what this is. And for some perspective, read Janet Yellen's papers when she was head of the FRB of San Francisco (2004-10) and try to discern whether she ever even considered 2008 approaching. As for Trump/Clinton, rest assured there are enough of us here who are also scratching our heads, not that we should be surprised. "The world is a business, Mr. Beale"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxiT30N6ti4

But if you're in Europe, you know better maybe what happened to Greece at the hands of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. And you don't have to be a socialist to glean from Yanis Varoufakis just what goes on behind the scenes of the powers that be. Moreover, we've passed legislation for a "bail-in" just as was provided by the Cypriot debacle, but I'd wager most don't know about this provision here in the U.S. Here's a brief bit about that from our New York FRB

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2014/1412somm.pdf

Things aren't as bad as you might think--they're worse, depending of course on how deep down the rabbit hole you wanna go, or upon which end you think is "up." Cheers

[cooldude]

Yes, things may well be more serious than we know. Here is a video source from Jim Rickards who tells more about the dollar/ debt conundrum...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLj_7BYhjd4



So, there are voices out there who tell a far different story than the official spin.

[Mike DC]

  
Things are only serious for people who chose the wrong parents.  The 0.01% will be safe no matter what happens.  

[Bobs69]

 
Things are only serious for people who chose the wrong parents.  The 0.01% will be safe no matter what happens.  

That's what's important!

[Laowho]

Jim Rickards? Project Prophecy? Gold hawk, and general counsel for the bail-out of LTCM? Cooldude, methinks you are a search term algo for gold-peddling, "not that there's anything wrong with that," but come on. Who's next, Peter Schiff?

[Mike DC]

  

Who's next, Peter Schiff?

That guy is good at laying out how our system is so trainwrecked.  But his specific predictions & fixes are no better than anyone else's.

[Laowho]

It's self-promotion and a narrowing of the situation to profit by people's fears. Schiff is not an economist. He loves to proclaim himself as one of the few to predict the Crisis, and his Wiki page has been changed as many times as my underwear according to these claims and the shifting sands under them. But I'm not the only one who is wondering WTH Cooldude is all about here, and maybe some further obfuscation will help him with his aims. BUT, if you want some intelligent critical and populist critiques which are supported by scholarship and real journalism and economics, and not by ulterior motives, maybe try Naked Capitalism, The Intercept, or anything besides these bottom-feeders. Hope I somehow managed to stay on point. Amazing what passes for news these days. Sorry--it's my job to call BS and I'm seein too many disconnects here. He (Cooldude and his amicus briefs) would never get on one of our juries. But don't mind me..I'm just an old curmudgeon and happened to be in the neighborhood, thought I'd pop in, drop some gold-peddling names...you know...cuz it's important and you need to know how things are. LOL As if.

[68X426]

I do think you Americans are F@$Ked

.


just the hard working ones.

[Laowho]

I do think you Americans are F@$Ked

.


just the hard working ones.

Nah...in case you haven't noticed, we're takin the rest of you down with us. "I am John Nash's red tie, I am..."

[Mike DC]

Middle class people always say the poor classes have it so much better.  But we still spend every waking hour trying stay as far away from there as possible.  

[cooldude]

Come on, Lauwho...

Its easy to throw rocks at a source like Jim Rickards, say vague and undefined bad things, and then scamper away.

That wont do, as it is unfair.

If you disagree with something that he said, why dont you do a point by point reasoning as to why he is wrong, and you are right?

So, what point of the video did you disagree with?

Please, give us some scholarly insight so we can check up on the facts and understand your opposing  positions?

[Kern Dog]

Besides three or four people, anyone else understand any of this stuff? I see these  new guys blabbing on and on like lawyers or egghead college professors....?