RECESSION, THE SECOND WAVE. IS IT COMING?

[skip68]

Lots of talk lately about a second recession coming.   If so, how could it possibly compare to what we just went through?   Interest rates have been at record lows for some time now and only recently went up overall about 1/4 %    
Most aren't in the same position with the banks and real estate as before and the oil prices will go up again.  
The market has dropped but I think most are just being cautious.  
Overall I think we're just experiencing hiccups with a RECOVERING economy.   China has been unstable for a long time and so has some others yet we've managed to stay somewhat afloat.  
I see no needs for any bailouts with banking or automotive industries.   Oil companies will stay afloat and the airlines are having record profits right now.  
So, in short, just how severe and where will a "second recession" take its toll?    I know we've seen some great deals on cars back in the other recession but I don't see that happening again.   

[polywideblock]

we're already seeing signs over here      the mining boom is OVER people are loosing their jobs ,mines closing (china is our biggest customer )

our useless government  has devalued our dollar   in the hopes that our exporters will reap the benefits, read above ^ ( don't say to them that these same exporters have to now sell 3x what they had to before they devalued our dollar  to make the same money    )

they killed off all our manufacturing industries(actually told the car industry that they would not "hold their hand anymore ") so now everything IS imported or will be imported  at a greatly increased price including cars from 2017  ( buy Australian is their slogan , where, what  , there is nothing left made in Australia  worth buying       )

    hope your economy is better off than ours     

[ITSA426]

I think people will be fine if they use common sense.  Avoid debt, save a little, live within your means.  This wouldn't be a second recession but part of a moving economy.  If you didn't learn from the last downturn it will be a chance to learn all over again.  I've survived several job losses.

China might be a problem but if you try to buy locally it will help those closest to your community and keep the money nearby.  The people that do well in tough times are ones that don't follow the herd mentality.  Help someone worse off than yourself and you will count your own blessings.  If you don't watch a lot of TV you probably won't even be aware of a problem, if there even is one.

Life goes on.

[JB400]

Personally, I don't think we're out of the recession.  We've just gotten smarter and used to it, that we don't really realize how bad things are.  Several people downgraded to where they're living with what they have and within their paycheck, instead of living off of tomorrow's paycheck today.

From what I've read today, you can't go off of what was said at the SOTU.

[Old Moparz]

Thom Hartmann's Book Written in 2013

[John_Kunkel]

Lots of talk lately about a second recession coming.  see that happening again.  

You must mean a second recession in the 21st century. There have been recessions too numerous to count in the previous centuries.

[J-440]

 Well the Saudis are trying to bankrupt our oil industry as well as Russia's.  $30 a barrel is just too dam low.  I've heard of rumblings from Harry Dent (an economist) and CNN to start selling everything and start buying gold and silver. With half the workforce unemployed and welfare recipients through the roof I think a crash is inevitable. With a 37% corporate tax rate, the big companies aren't coming back soon. Sure isn't helping any that GE, the NFL, Google and others aren't paying a dime in taxes.  Cheap, slave labor from 3rd world countries, the middle class is in trouble.  Blah, blah, blah we can go on.   I agree though that if you live within your means and keep your faith in God, everything will work out fine.  Just be ready to hunker down and keep packing.

[Patronus]

Wait, what recession? There was a recession!? 
I'm slammed, I was slammed, and I will be slammed. It makes no difference.

[Lord Warlock]

Actually, although oil prices at 30 bucks is considered low today, that was the level that was considered "normal" for regular economies for decades, only in the last 8 years have we accepted the normality of higher oil prices, and only because our government wouldn't encourage exploration and alternative ways to get it out of the ground.  The higher prices made it feasible and its common sense for OPEC to attempt to subdue our young shale industry.  Oil prices have been artificially inflated due to investors, not demand.  Right now, demand is low, reserves are way high, and production is high, it is only natural to see the price drop. 

As for a recession, I don't believe we've ever come out of the recession we've been in for the last 4 years.  I personally know that young college grads are not finding suitable employment with degrees, and are being forced to accept lower paying wages and part time work without benefits.  My own daughter has been out of college now for 2 years and works retail to get by, her fiancé also works part time, just to pay rent and for food.  While there are jobs available out there, 99% of them are asking for experience and not taking on fresh grads who need to be trained.  I know if I was in the job market again, I could find a job pretty quick, but then again I have plenty of experience in my field, and can sell my skills pretty well should I need to. 

I could have warned folks (but who would listen to me) that there would be at least a "correction" in the market  this week, but that was because I removed 30% of my portfolio in mutual funds and converted to cash, because I wanted cash for my own needs.  And since the world revolves around me, I expected and predicted a market adjustment to close friends, who were shocked to find that it actually occurred.  I don't plan on any other disbursements until next January.  I'm no broker, not even a savvy investor, I just bought long term mutual funds and leave the funds alone, time always makes up for rash selling during downturns, it just takes a long time to recoup what disappears so quickly.

[Mike DC]

Actually, although oil prices at 30 bucks is considered low today, that was the level that was considered "normal" for regular economies for decades, only in the last 8 years have we accepted the normality of higher oil prices, and only because our government wouldn't encourage exploration and alternative ways to get it out of the ground.  The higher prices made it feasible and its common sense for OPEC to attempt to subdue our young shale industry.  Oil prices have been artificially inflated due to investors, not demand.  Right now, demand is low, reserves are way high, and production is high, it is only natural to see the price drop. 

I must disagree.

Inflation drives prices up.  $30 today is more like $15 in the Clinton era.

Oil costs more to produce now, period.  The petro industry has been grabbing the lowest-hanging fruit for over a century now.  The bottom branches of the tree are getting picked over.  These modern alternative production methods are like putting a ladder under the tree.  Not a new idea, just a known higher-effort method that is finally becoming necessary.

[Paul G]

A second wave of recession? We have not fully recovered from this recession. This has been a very week recovery. Workforce participation is down from it's peak in 2000, the graph continues to fall. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART  With the advertised unemployment rate in the 5% range one would think we are doing well. Not the case.

That means very many, too many, people are without a job. So what are they doing? Many have given up finding a job, collect state aid, or live with someone else. There are no jobs for people with low skills, or the wrong skills. Many people are working low paying jobs, well below the pay grade they would expect. That is why so many want minimum wage raised to $15/HR. Understand that minimum wage is a starter job, not a career. But these people have no other choices, no better jobs exist. Life sucks right now for so very many. And a great number of them have loans to pay off.

This is an election year. Going to be a very rocky ride as people decide if they want more "Hope And Change"? Or take a different approach? So buckle up and settle in. It will be an interesting year.

[sunfire69]

This year is going to be rough....China has been propped up for more than 3 years....Oil is hammered because of an agreement between the west and Saudi to keep oil prices low to punish Russia for the incursion into the Ukraine...Putin isn't a threat if he is to broke to go to war....
Our real unemployment rate is closer to 20%....if your unemployment runs out they drop you from the role and you aren't counted...although it's been said the administration created 292K jobs...we lost almost 700K....for a new loss of 400K.....true Inflation is running about 12% and anybody that buys groceries can back that up.....
The Royal Bank of Scotland has told it's investors to get out of EVERYTHING except high quality bonds and to do it NOW..that's a warning that shouldn't be taken lightly.....
After the last shot across the bow from the Chinese economy early last fall I pull everything I had back to cash or bonds....the administration is trying to stave off the total collapse until after the election for obvious reasons....
But for a moment imagine a dump truck dropping a load of gravel....as the bed goes up the gravel starts to slowly move down and trickles out as the bed goes up it starts to speed up. Now imagine two guys with shovels trying to slow it down as the bed goes higher.....at some point trying to stop it is futile, dropping the bed can but by the time the driver figure it out it's to late......Our economy has been "trickling" out...and the bed is still going up.....and the guys with the shovels are about to throw in the towel.....
Clear as much debt as you can....have some cash available ( meaning in the bank, but having some cash on hand isn't a bad idea either) live well with in your means and you should be OK...prepare for the worst....hope for the best....

[skip68]

That's why I said this in my first post Paul.      

Overall I think we're just experiencing hiccups with a RECOVERING economy.  

I also agree with Mike again.  (Dammit)  $30 a barrel is low for today's economy.    
Nobody knows what the future will bring.  

[sunfire69]

Just FYI...Walmart just announced they will close 269 stores world wide....154 in the US...when the largest brick and mortar retailer in the world says it will close stores we had better pay attention......they also said they plan to open new stores" later in the year....

[ITSA426]

I understand Wal-Mart is closing their "express store" because the business model doesn't work.

[sunfire69]

154 of the locations are in the United States, two-thirds of which are the smaller "Walmart Express" stores. Only 12 U.S. Walmart Supercenters will close, along with four Sam's Club stores.

[ACUDANUT]

I hope oil stays low, so we don't tap into our resources here. Let's use up their oil first. 

[sunfire69]

ACUDANUT...Shhhhhhhh...your not supposed to say that out loud.....once their oil is gone.....them....their region...everything...will go back to being a miserable waste of space that we no longer need to worry about....

[Charger_Fan]

I hope oil stays low, so we don't tap into our resources here. Let's use up their oil first. 

Speaking of oil, a few months ago I heard a pretty good argument stating that oil may NOT be a fossil fuel, but in fact, a renewable energy & that we are never gonna run out of oil. Pretty interesting idea.
Here's one article on the subject...
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2011/09/14/abiotic-oil-a-theory-worth-exploring

[Mike DC]

The 'Abiotic Oil' theory has been around a while. 


I won't try to shoot it down, I will just say it's barely relevant in the near/medium term. 

The vast majority of cases of fields "refilling" are like a few gallons of water gradually seeping up through the cracks in the bottom of an empty swimming pool.  That seep is not gonna fix our energy problems if we are emptying out every known pool on earth with firehoses because of market demand.   
   

[RallyeMike]

My layman's perspective:

The DOW is back near its pre-crash value, but my savings portfolio isn't. My house value crashed in the recession, but it's recovered is assessed value now. The market and housing were described as "bubbles" then, so I assume they are also so now? I still have friends who are unemployed or underemployed as caused by the recession.

We seem to be back to where we were before the crash except now with worse/fewer jobs and less savings. Add the throng of bankruptcies and joblessness said to becoming because of low oil prices. It makes me wonder how we can we not be back on the same precipice. But hellifiknow

[Mytur Binsdirti]

It's gotten to the point that when The Dear Leader opens his pie hole and waxes poetic about how he's got things under control, disaster is about to strike.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/walmart-fire-16000-it-closes-269-stores-globally

[stripedelete]

Have you ever wonderered what the recovery from the Great Depression would have been like without WWII?
We're living it.

[polywideblock]

Have you ever wonderered what the recovery from the Great Depression would have been like without WWII?
We're living it.

and every time someone tries to kick one off the "nosy do-gooders" stop it from happening   

[HANDM]

My homes value before the crash  (2007) 1,100,000
After the first crash                 (2011)      660,000
2.5 years ago                      (2013)      885,000
September 2015                             1,100,000
Today                                          791,000

Knowing that home values in my area (between Seattle and Everett) are inflated to an unreal high, this certainly shows something is going on with the overall health of the market and economy, Whatever is coming, it's coming fast!