10 years all cars, 'HAVE' to have 54mpg?

[1974dodgecharger]

Watching this episode and Jay saids all cars need to be 54mpg in 10 years or just drive a prius?  Is this true?  Will they outlaw our cars that are dinosours as he puts it?

https://youtu.be/eaOfgevPphk

[JB400]

All car manufacturers will have to have cars that average out to 50+ mpg by 2025.  Only problem is, they {state gov} will have to raise the fuel tax as well to repair roads and bridges.

[myk]

Hmm....someone promised us 8 years ago that the nation's infrastructure would see refurbishment but that hasn't happened yet, so.

Also, does the Prius even average out to 54 mpg?  That's a pipe dream, IMO...

[Chargen69]

sad to say I own one, DONT judge, I drive a lot, got 95,000 miles on one that is under three years old. NO it doesnt get 54mph.   I refuse to drive the way you would have to to get that. Normally mine is 48mph combo city and highway miles. 

I will say once on a four hour trip I got behind a tractor trailer truck, just enough to get out of the wind, but not enough to piss him off.  over 4 hours on the highway it registered 60mph.

around town if you are a jerk and pretend no one else is behind you, over a tank of gas the best I ever got was 52.

[Chargen69]

and yes, I hate every minute I drive it.

disrespect is soo bad on the road in it, that I crammed airhorns in the grill, it's a hit with the service department.

[A383Wing]

I'm still waiting to be driving around in cars like the Jetsons...that's what they promised us years ago

[twodko]

The best Pious I've even seen was with a 4wd chassis under it.
I want to say it late CJ7 running gear. Looked knarly too.

[myk]

sad to say I own one, DONT judge, I drive a lot, got 95,000 miles on one that is under three years old. NO it doesnt get 54mph.   I refuse to drive the way you would have to to get that. Normally mine is 48mph combo city and highway miles. 

I will say once on a four hour trip I got behind a tractor trailer truck, just enough to get out of the wind, but not enough to piss him off.  over 4 hours on the highway it registered 60mph.

around town if you are a jerk and pretend no one else is behind you, over a tank of gas the best I ever got was 52.

Don't be sad, seek comfort in your sense of practicality.  I just got back from a 4 day stint in Vegas-no way in HELL was I gonna drive 800 miles with any of my V8's-the Charger especially.

Economy cars have their place in society.  The smart, educated and modern muscle car fan can see they can't rely on their Detroit iron for EVERYTHING, however that doesn't mean that I approve our marginally despotic government and the greenies forcing economy cars and their standards down our throats.  There can be a way to have both.  To quote the panzy-liberal bumper sticker, they can "coexist." 

[green69rt]

The new standard is for newly built car fleets so it doesn't address cars that have already been built.  That doesn't mean that states can't do something crazy.   And is it a reasonable goal??  Sounds pretty far fetched to me unless all cars are going to weigh 1500 pounds and go no faster than 45mph!!

[dyslexic teddybear]

The new standard is for newly built car fleets so it doesn't address cars that have already been built.  That doesn't mean that states can't do something crazy.   And is it a reasonable goal??  Sounds pretty far fetched to me unless all cars are going to weigh 1500 pounds and go no faster than 45mph!!

It's also at odds with the increasing amount of "safety" equipment cars have.

88 airbags and multiply senors for auto braking [so you need not look where you are going] back sensors/camera [so you need not pay as much attention when you are backing] all add weight......

[66FBCharger]

$845,000!
Thats what this Porsche cost. It is an incredible car, but it should be for that much money.

[RallyeMike]

The same technology that is allowing us to have 350HP @ 35mpg can lead to this. I don't think 10 years is completely unreasonable but it's going to be a stretch.

I'm all for the masses having 54 mpg cars. More gas for my lumbering beasts, plus I assume this does not apply to new trucks

[green69rt]

The same technology that is allowing us to have 350HP @ 35mpg can lead to this. I don't think 10 years is completely unreasonable but it's going to be a stretch.

I'm all for the masses having 54 mpg cars. More gas for my lumbering beasts, plus I assume this does not apply to new trucks

I think the new standard does include light trunks, aka most pickups and vans.  But I don't know if it's the same standard that applies to light trucks as applies to cars.

[A383Wing]

cars and light trucks are in different categories...not the same standard applies to both

[green69rt]

cars and light trucks are in different categories...not the same standard applies to both

Yeah, but still an increase in MPG rating, that's why Ford is producing an all aluminum truck.

[1974dodgecharger]

based on how Jay Leno said he made it seem like that EVERYBODY is going to have drive a car that gets 54mpg or just walk......just me the way he said and people who cant afford such nice cars as the Porsche resort to prius based on government regulations that old cars cant be on the road.

[Mike DC]

  

based on how Jay Leno said he made it seem like that EVERYBODY is going to have drive a car that gets 54mpg or just walk......just me the way he said and people who cant afford such nice cars as the Porsche resort to prius based on government regulations that old cars cant be on the road.

Whatever the govt mandates will be the only choice for most of the public within just a few years.  There's no need to ban old cars.  

Most people need totally reliable & comfortable & presentable cars.  That means their cars have to be pretty new.  Most people have to call a tow truck & pay a repair shop for anything beyond changing a tire.  They can't switch to driving exclusively old vehicles.  

[1974dodgecharger]

 

based on how Jay Leno said he made it seem like that EVERYBODY is going to have drive a car that gets 54mpg or just walk......just me the way he said and people who cant afford such nice cars as the Porsche resort to prius based on government regulations that old cars cant be on the road.

Whatever the govt mandates will be the only choice for most of the public within just a few years.  There's no need to ban old cars.  

Most people need totally reliable & comfortable & presentable cars.  That means their cars have to be pretty new.  Most people have to call a tow truck & pay a repair shop for anything more complicated than changing a tire.  

kinda sad to think that way, but I do agree with you hence why cars don't come with spares now they expect you pay a insurance company for road side assistance while you sit in the car with air running and tow man changes it....

My only fear is gov. regulating that cars older than say 10 years cant be on the road or you walk or take public transporation and are forced to buy new cars to keep the economy going or something.....ahhhh...conspiracy theories I better stop...no talk on froum.....

[moparjohn]

nothing like trying to force you to buy something you don't want.  Let capitalism breath free, those cars that don't sell won't be produced. and as for me, when hell freezes over I'll buy an ecobox, if I can afford the gas and payments I should be able to buy what I want. rant over

[Mike DC]

 
If capitalism was truly breathing free then gasoline would cost several times as much and we would still be buying economy cars. 

The govt puts small token taxes on gasoline.  But the deeper indirect subsidies for the petroleum industry far outweigh it in the other direction. 


The US public has spoken on this for decades.  We want super-cheap gas even if it means our vehicles cost the price of a house.

----------------------

[ws23rt]

Whatever happened to the cash for clunkers deal?

It seems like the car hater legislators are holding back on what they really want.  

The market works very well without intervention. The total cost of driving (vehicle cost, fuel, upkeep, ins., etc) are what we the driving public will respond to for a practical car that we need to navigate to make a living and enjoy freedom of movement.

The other part of our driving experience comes from the impractical. The fun cars and trucks that are a big part of out lives. They are not the bulk of transport consumption. They are a part of our chosen life style. They are also a part of the economy.

When I see a crack down on what we do to have fun as a way to help everyone it moves me to protest. Their is no rational reason that we can't have both and prosper.

I for one am still looking forward to when we can put 400+ miles worth of electric power in a car and do it in short order. Lot's of things are to come.  But it's an evolution that happens by the force of the market.

[Stevearino]

Places like Virginia have already established the "Prius Tax" which is a flat fee just to own one because they know they will not get the gas tax they need.  Some places are looking at a mileage or odometer tax which would be fairer. If you use the road more you should have to pay for the upkeep base on your usage but that is very complicated to collect.  Auto makers always seem to find a way around all these rules. I remember when the fleet mileage mandates first came out in order to keep the overall fleet mileage ratings down they would manufacture more than 50% of a large cars components over seas in order to classify it as an import thus taking it out of the equation.  They also exempt light trucks from the old 5 mph bumpers so the started making car/trucks like SUV's and for years there were no 5 mph bumpers on them. Not sure if they even have them today.

[ws23rt]

I does seem odd to me that we are not yet being spanked for wanting cars like the hellcat. Although it's mpg rating is pretty good considering.
With cars being as smart and connected as they are, I can see an attempt to get us by watching miles driven as well as fuel used while doing so.

As far as taxing electric cars?---Would a tax on coal be coming to pay for the road use as well as the charging stations?

If something like this is coming it would almost have to be a part of the cost per KWH at home.---Power from the grid is where it will come from for now.---If power from our home is cheaper we would use that---

[RallyeMike]

nothing like trying to force you to buy something you don't want.

The free market will still reign. I would guess that the majority of people in this country want a vehicle that gets good mileage and are willing to trade off. If you are not one of the majority, there will still be options to purchase HP vehicle..... perhaps at a price.

[Stevearino]

This right here is more disturbing if it proves to be a future trend.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/elon-musk-nvidia/

[moparjohn]

WE ARE DOOMED! or at least I am.

[Mike DC]

This right here is more disturbing if it proves to be a future trend.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/elon-musk-nvidia/

I've been thinking this for years.  Once cars can self-drive the clock is ticking on our human driving rights.  People will gladly trade away just about anything for more safety these days.  

They don't have to make it flat-out illegal just to render human drivers a thing of the past.  The insurance industry could push the optional human-license insurance rates so high that it's not affordable/practical for most.  That would do the job.  Once a generation grows up without ever having the right to drive, and not missing it, the war will basically be lost.  

[Ghoste]

Heard a guy on a Detroit radio station just two days ago spouting off about how Michigan needs to raise taxes immediately to get money for working on potholes and then mandate self driving cars too.

[Stevearino]

They still have some major hurdles to clear with the self driving technology such as the fact that they still can't figure out how to make these cars drive in the rain or other inclement conditions. I'd say that was a pretty big deal. As far as a generation that does not drive  that is already happening. While we all could not wait to get behind the wheel it seems that young people today could care less about getting their licence and buying a car.

[Ghoste]

They are in constant contact with their friends anyway, we had to go to a "hangout" and find each other to (gasp) speak face to face.  Plus the cost is crazy.  If their parents want to subsidize, great, but few can afford to buy, maintain, fuel and most of all insure their own car as a teen today.

[draftingmonkey]

So much has been added to new cars, that even as we make the engines more efficient, it still doesn't help. The weight of the basic automobile has gone down, but all the added electronics and safety items make cars heavier than ever. Take the Challenger, the body metal is so thin it bends if you blow on it to hard, yet the new models weigh about 800 lbs more now than they did when first introduced way back.  Heck you can't even find a small truck anymore.  Remember when all the Japanese makers had small trucks, now they are almost as big and inefficient as their American counterparts.
I had a 1980 VW Rabbit Diesel. After tuning the mechanical FI with the help on a VW diesel nut, I averaged 35 mpg in town and 50+ mpg on the fwy at 65.  May not have have a lot of power but it sure was easy on the wallet of a starving student.  My buddy had a VW Diesel pickup that he pushed 70mpg on at fwy speeds.
All the new technology in the last 40 years is negated by all the new technology.

[Stevearino]

They are in constant contact with their friends anyway, we had to go to a "hangout" and find each other to (gasp) speak face to face.  Plus the cost is crazy.  If their parents want to subsidize, great, but few can afford to buy, maintain, fuel and most of all insure their own car as a teen today.

The part about them being in constant contact is certainly true. I have read several articles though that say that even apart from the cost there is a general feeling of "MEH" about driving with younger people. Just glad I came of age when it was still possible to fall in love with a car. Many colors besides shades of grey to choose from. Even different color interiors. In the 90's car manufacturers made a conscious decision to build not the cars that people would love or hate but the cars that offended people the least. And so it goes. Hats off to Chrysler who ever owns it now for at least building something interesting. It might be the last breath of this sort of thing but it is here for now and we can enjoy it while it lasts.

So much has been added to new cars, that even as we make the engines more efficient, it still doesn't help. The weight of the basic automobile has gone down, but all the added electronics and safety items make cars heavier than ever. Take the Challenger, the body metal is so thin it bends if you blow on it to hard, yet the new models weigh about 800 lbs more now than they did when first introduced way back.  Heck you can't even find a small truck anymore.  Remember when all the Japanese makers had small trucks, now they are almost as big and inefficient as their American counterparts.
I had a 1980 VW Rabbit Diesel. After tuning the mechanical FI with the help on a VW diesel nut, I averaged 35 mpg in town and 50+ mpg on the fwy at 65.  May not have have a lot of power but it sure was easy on the wallet of a starving student.  My buddy had a VW Diesel pickup that he pushed 70mpg on at fwy speeds.
All the new technology in the last 40 years is negated by all the new technology.

They say that the demand for larger heavy vehicles with safety in mind has eaten up all of the technological advancements in fuel efficiency. Who knows how good the mileage would be if the cars could be built to older standards.

[Mike DC]

   
Cars get more expensive -->  fewer younger/single people are buying new cars --> new cars are built towards the priorities of older & wealthier buyers --> cars get heavier, more safety-oriented, and . . . even more expensive.

Snowball.

[ws23rt]

Car makers will build what sells. If the gov. mandates something that won't sell it won't me made. (unless the tax payers make up the loss).

If the cost of fuel just happens to drop and stay down in the middle of a long term plan such as this then the tax on fuel has to rise. This will be needed to make up for loss due to lower fuel cost/need and maintain revenue.

When was the last time we felt extra money in our pocket from a mandated move to help us?---- BTW I just paid my taxes and am not in a good mood.

[green69rt]

I too don't like the taxes, sales tax, license fees (just another tax), income.  The only thing that keeps me sane is to know that I really live in the best country in the world AND all the others probably pay more taxes!!!!

[ACUDANUT]

Yea, we all must drive smart cars. 

[Steve P.]

I look at it like this: 1) I don't drive very much anymore because I cannot afford to. 2) I hope they build cars and trucks one day that are full electric and are charged by driving over some sort of pulse generation built into the roadways. 3) I am happy that we are building cars today that get much better mileage and hope it gets much better.

I look at this like each of us is working on a running car inside of a closed garage. You can get away with this for only so long before you die. If we all were driving cars that get horrible mileage and just dumped loads of crap that our old muscle cars do, we wouldn't live very well or for very long.

I am averaging about 10.5 MPG with my truck now. 100 gallons takes me about 1050 miles at a cost (TODAY) of $2.39 per gallon. $239.00 to drive 1050 miles. If my truck got 54 MPG the same trip would use roughly 20 gallons of gas and only cost me about $48.00.... That's only the CASH COST... Think of the difference in the pollution from both getting it out of the ground and us burning it. 

I am all for technology and saving.

My .02

[ACUDANUT]

 How about steam cars.
Wait, I will just ride my horse to work. 

[Steve P.]

Steam cars would be much less economical. Much more polluting and much more dangerous, but have fun on the horse.... 

[JB400]

Be sure to carry a shovel

[Mike DC]

 
We'll eventually end up running electric cars with small onboard gasoline engines to charge the battery.  IMO this is clearly the best ultimate solution to the mileage problem.  But the industry will waste a bunch of years & billions of dollars trying to make easier stuff work first.

[JB400]

I don't see it as the ultimate solution, as is the environmentalists would prefer that gasoline not be used at all.  But, I will say that it will probably be the most likely solution in nearest terms, considering that is the formula for the Prius, and the other newer hybrids.  Probably the ultimate would be an ion drive system powering a flying car like the Jetsons, but technologically, we're quite a ways a way from accomplishing this at the moment.

[69hemidaytona]

We'll eventually end up running electric cars with small onboard gasoline engines to charge the battery.  IMO this is clearly the best ultimate solution to the mileage problem.  But the industry will waste a bunch of years & billions of dollars trying to make easier stuff work first.

What happens when you want to go on a long trip? The small engine will use more fuel to charge the battery than it would to just run the wheels directly. You'll end up getting less fuel economy than a straight gasoline car made now.

[polywideblock]

seen steam raised as a alternative power source , have you ever been to a "steam show"    

                at least 40% of participants "steam" engines are fuelled by unleaded gas    

and self driving cars are great until billy joe bud decides to fix his new fangled self drivin car "his-self" ... "how hard can it be anyways" ...

[Old Moparz]

The lower gas prices we are seeing are definitely temporary, it's a viscous cycle that isn't going away. There are many reasons we've all discussed before but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if the high prices we had a short time ago, some over $5.50/gal were also just to gauge what the consumer was willing to pay. The oil companies, along with other large corporations, don't have any trouble with watching the average consumer bend over & hold their ankles as long as it keeps their stockholders smiling.

I'd like to get much better MPG on what I drive daily but I am stuck with what I have for now. My 2004 Ram gets 9/10 city, never more than 16/17 highway & wasn't intended to be my daily ride, it was for towing. It has been paid off for years & just turned 80,000 on the odometer so it still has plenty of life left in it. My Wife is more of a cheapskate than I am & wants 100 MPG. She used to enjoy driving her 5.0 Mustang but has since changed what is important to her. She had a Honda Civic that got 35 to 40 MPG for a while & wants another one or even an electric or a hybrid.

I do miss the 4cyl. Nissan truck that I had & wish it didn't rust out or I'd still have it. It got twice the MPG compared my Dodge. When gas hit $5 or more it was costing $125 & higher to fill the Dodge, so like Steve P. said, I couldn't go places as often. Driving an economy car, even if it were a goofy, gutless, pink Prius, wouldn't bother me one bit because I don't have an ego to stroke & don't give a rat's ass what people think. It would leave me a lot of extra money to fix the big block car in the garage to take it to the drag strip. 

[ACUDANUT]

Why doesn't the EPA start regulating how many rockets we sent into space.  Do you realize how much crap these rockets pollute the air and not to mention,  these rockets punch holes in the O zone.
Then aging, aren't  more countries doing a heck of a lot worse harm to our environment than us. ? What can we do to them to make them stop....Nothing 

[Old Moparz]

Why doesn't the EPA start regulating how many rockets we sent into space.  Do you realize how much crap these rockets pollute the air and not to mention,  these rockets punch holes in the O zone.
Then aging, aren't  more countries doing a heck of a lot worse harm to our environment than us. ? What can we do to them to make them stop....Nothing 

You can lead by example, but if you give the impression you don't give a crap, then it's a sure thing that you can do nothing. Other countries are starting to realize there is a problem so they are "doing something" to make changes. It might be believable or not, but any type of change has to start at the bottom in small measures.

China Might Give It A Shot.

India Too.

[Mike DC]

What happens when you want to go on a long trip? The small engine will use more fuel to charge the battery than it would to just run the wheels directly. You'll end up getting less fuel economy than a straight gasoline car made now.

Actually no.  A small recharging engine will do much better than just running the wheels directly. 

This engine only has to produce enough power for the vehicle on average, which is a lot closer to 25 horsepower than 200.  A traditional gas engine setup needs to be big enough for the briefest maximum spikes of 200+ horsepower when accelerating.  A traditional engine setup is always over-producing power at low RPMs when cruising.  With electrics powering the wheels it can just yank short bursts of extra power entirely from the batteries. 

Furthermore, the small recharging engine only has to work at one maximum-efficient RPM.  It can be a simple engine that runs at a low speed and has no compromises to make power at both 1000 and 6000 RPM.  It's a major efficiency improvement over current vehicle engines.

[Cooter]

Cool. Just as with fuel burning. Cars, we'll find a way to rewind electric motors, double battery power, triple output of electric motors, etc. Bring it.

[bristol]

I would bet that 100 years ago people were having this same discussion about automobiles will replace all horses and horse drawn carriages in the next ten years. What will we be discussing in another 100 years?

[Stevearino]

The most complicated issue to overcome with the "Self Driving Cars" is not the technology. It is the legal issues. Who is libel if the car is involved in an accident. The owner, the manufacturer, the GPS satellite provider.  They haven't a clue as to how this aspect will play out. And in a nation of people who have a lottery mentality believe me someone will have to pay.

As for the Prius both my daughter and son have one and like it or not  they are very well built dependable roomy cars . My daughter once ran out of gas on the interstate and was able to make it to the next gas exit on electric only. Not a bad option to have. The best thing about the car though is a piece of technology that could be available on any gas engine car and would save loads of gas in congested stop and go commutes. That is the instant on feature that turns engine off when you are sitting in traffic . When you hit the gas to go it comes to life as if it was idling. 

[Steve P.]

I have a buddy that works for Tesla... He tells me about stuff they are working on and the 0 to 60 times they get to play with...

The thing about an electric car is that it goes from zero power and RPM to full torque in half a NY second.. Tesla is coming out with much better batteries and charging systems and cars that will go much further on a charge..

As mentioned before, horses use to be the thing and people said the automobile was a joke. 100 plus years ago there was a fight over gas or electric as well... Everything electric was much worse than today. Gas was not so fantastically safe either but was considered much more safe than electric.. Mostly because people were charging off power lines on street corners..

Also, I believe it was Neil Young, (may be wrong), that was building a lincoln or something large, to run off an electric motor and a small generator to recharge the batteries.. I never saw the conclusion of this car..

[Mike DC]

             

The thing about an electric car is that it goes from zero power and RPM to full torque in half a NY second..

The electrics will kick our cars' asses on the tracks when they get serious about trying.  Like it or not, scream and yell all we want, it's simple physics.  They don't even need gears. 

[polywideblock]

and 500 ft/lb instantly

[JB400]

             

The thing about an electric car is that it goes from zero power and RPM to full torque in half a NY second..

The electrics will kick our cars' asses on the tracks when they get serious about trying.  Like it or not, scream and yell all we want, it's simple physics.  They don't even need gears. 

The new Koeninseigg doesn't even have a trans.

[1974dodgecharger]

Its gonna get really boring in the future even now modern cars are boring.....you can go from zero to 120 and not even feel your going 120mph.  The cars are so voided from actually in coming contact with reality of road feel that you don't know how fast your going. 

Anyone who has gotten in my car and we hit 80mph feels different than a car going 120mph they tell me its more, 'EXHILIRATING' than regular cars.  Even my kids love it when I accelerate from a stop they, 'feel' it and the push back. 

[Steve P.]

 

Anyone who has gotten in my car and we hit 80mph feels different than a car going 120mph they tell me its more, 'EXHILIRATING' than regular cars.  Even my kids love it when I accelerate from a stop they, 'feel' it and the push back. 

I think that feeling of being slammed into the seat is exactly what you will feel in an electric car if you drop the hammer. You go from nothing to full torque with electrics. Unless you are dropping the clutch at high RPM's, you are not feeling your engines full torque.

I don't claim to know a lot about the electrics, but from what I have seen on youtube videos, I think there is a new excitement coming...

Here are a few videos from BIG DADDY himself:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea4igN8Thtg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xycfysAM7IY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiu84nDORtI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcmYP1lLpi0

[Steve P.]

This video is getting old now, (a few years), but really a good look into electrics..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=369h-SEBXd8

[Mike DC]

I think that feeling of being slammed into the seat is exactly what you will feel in an electric car if you drop the hammer. You go from nothing to full torque with electrics. Unless you are dropping the clutch at high RPM's, you are not feeling your engines full torque.

I don't claim to know a lot about the electrics, but from what I have seen on youtube videos, I think there is a new excitement coming...

Exactly.  It's a matter of time before gasoline cars can't beat electrics, even in raw grunt. 

We will be left with the charm of the loud, vibrating, gasoline-burning, gear-shifting, mechanical feel of our cars.  It's still a lot to love IMO.  But it will be harder to explain to younger kids why these cars are cool.  Even in heavily hot-rodded form the old cars won't be winning on the tracks anymore.   

[1974dodgecharger]

I would still find it boring...... aint nothing like manual brakes, manual clutch, everything manual......vs a modern car where you can eat a steak and drive fast.....

 

Anyone who has gotten in my car and we hit 80mph feels different than a car going 120mph they tell me its more, 'EXHILIRATING' than regular cars.  Even my kids love it when I accelerate from a stop they, 'feel' it and the push back. 

I think that feeling of being slammed into the seat is exactly what you will feel in an electric car if you drop the hammer. You go from nothing to full torque with electrics. Unless you are dropping the clutch at high RPM's, you are not feeling your engines full torque.

I don't claim to know a lot about the electrics, but from what I have seen on youtube videos, I think there is a new excitement coming...

Here are a few videos from BIG DADDY himself:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea4igN8Thtg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xycfysAM7IY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiu84nDORtI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcmYP1lLpi0

[hatersaurusrex]

This right here is more disturbing if it proves to be a future trend.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/elon-musk-nvidia/

I've been thinking this for years.  Once cars can self-drive the clock is ticking on our human driving rights.  People will gladly trade away just about anything for more safety these days.  

They don't have to make it flat-out illegal just to render human drivers a thing of the past.  The insurance industry could push the optional human-license insurance rates so high that it's not affordable/practical for most.  That would do the job.  Once a generation grows up without ever having the right to drive, and not missing it, the war will basically be lost.  

Self driving cars can't be made safer than humans without a large leap in standardization of roadways.   They use LIDAR currently, and things like a pothole or a puddle throw them completely out of whack.   A system that interprets only spatial data - reactively and relative to the car's sensors - will always be flawed.   For the entire road system to be fully driverless, some sort of ground-based locator device or similar will have to be embedded in the road every so often - and think how long it would take to get every road overhauled and standardized.  GPS just isn't precise enough to do the job within inches at 70+mph safely - if it were these cars would already be using it exclusively.

Until everything is standardized, some level of human intervention is necessary.   I see the immediate future being cars that are augmented with driver assist (we already see some of this on newer cars) and branching out from there.   Old cars will likely be limited to special use cases and driven only outside of congested cities or something.   And by old, I don't mean a 67 GTX - I mean a 2025 Honda.   It will take decades for the system to be fully driverless, and the people who can't afford a swanky new autopilot car will drive old junk - just like we have now.

In short, our Mopars will be safe.

[Mike DC]

I agree it will take decades.  

But I've probably got several decades more to live & drive so this still concerns me.


I agree they will need something embedded in the roadways to make it mass-practical.  But they can do that.  It may only hit the urban centers first but it won't take too long for the suburbs to follow.  Then human driving becomes a small-town-only thing.  That means it stops getting priority in the legal & social sense and the pressure starts to mount against it.  

(Widespread handguns are a problem in urban centers.  But rifles & handguns still make a lot more sense in rural areas. We don't need to worry about the urban centers overruling the needs of the rural areas & outlawing guns everywhere . . . right?)  


As I said above, human driving could see an insurance pressure against it too.  

Right now everyone who wants to be as safe & responsible as possible still has to human-drive their own cars.  But once that  crowd has the option of turning the driving duties over to a machine, many of then will elect to do it.  Therefore the average human driver gets statistically more accident prone as a side-effect.  This will drive up the insurance rates on human drivers.  That will make human-driving less cost-effective, further pressuring smart & responsible people away from doing it.  This spiral will keep worsening the insurance risk for human-drivers.

[moparjohn]

did I mention we are doomed?  My God, driving, at my speed, where I want to go, what route, what stops all of it, are near and dear to my inner being.  Yes, every year, slower, more dense traffic take away from it but I love it. I don't do trains, buses or planes-not in contol, also a hassle no thanks. I don't want that kind of future in my lifetime. Remember technology IS the enemy.

[Steve P.]

John, technology is what put you in a CHARGER. Gave you gas to burn and that thing you are reading this on right now!!!! Though I understand that some things don't seem to be better, think about where we would be without technology. We'd still be clubbing each other over the head for women and food. Think about a pinecone the next time you reach for toilet paper... 

[Mike DC]

 
We could reduce the traffic on the roads any time we want.  Just raise the price of gas. 
     

[moparjohn]

pass the pinecone, keep the low(er) price of gas.   I know time passes by quickly, advances are made every day in "tech" For me each adavancement slows me down and fustrates me more. I'm the guy who has the $2.00 in cash in my pocket to pay for my coffee and will never understand sending a check via phone to deposit in a bank. I understand why I have to die because if I lived forever I would explode or loose it.  Now back to our sheduled program...

[Stevearino]

Another enormous problem with autonomous vehicles is accident avoidance programming. Say there is a child in the road and the there are two choices. Either hit the child or swerve into a concrete pylon killing you and anyone riding with you. Or another scenario the car must choose between hitting a pedestrian or driving into oncoming traffic. Who would want to be the programmer that would have to figure out the ethics of how that car will treat the hypothetical situation. Better yet. Who would want to trust their life to a vehicle that would be capable of independently making a choice to end your life?    A better technology to pursue would be technologies that watch us and alert us when we are about to make driving errors. The airliner industry is slowly coming to realize that people in the cockpit are really bad at watching the machine but a machine can be made to effectively watch us.